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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 827 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 knots.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. A chance of rain.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.

PZZ500 827 Am Pst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
southerly winds steadily building today with a low pressure system approaching the the local waters. Fresh to moderate breezes are expected, with briefly strong breezes possible in the northern offshore waters. Scattered showers develop late tonight and persist through the first half of Wednesday. An isolated Thunderstorm or two is also possible. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to northerly late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop by Thursday night. A larger moderate period northwest swell should arrive by late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into this weekend with plenty of cloud cover and periodic shower chances.

FXUS66 KMTR 281736 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 936 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

New AVIATION, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 111 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

A low pressure system offshore will bring rain chances to the region late tonight into Wednesday. An unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend with periodic shower chances persisting.
Rain amounts overall will be light with temperatures on the cool side.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 111 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Low pressure aloft was evident via moisture channel imagery this morning around 500 nm west of the Redwood Coast. A consensus of forecast models suggest this wave will devolve to an open-wave trough while dropping southeast through the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight into Wednesday morning. The associated surface low should remain offshore with the occluded front making its nearest approach to the CA coast Wednesday morning. Given the offshore trajectory of the low-level features the greatest forcing for ascent should remain offshore; however still expect scattered showers to spread inland from west to east from around midnight on Wednesday through the morning hours. Shower chances should taper off from northwest to southeast, with chances generally ending in the Bay Area during the late morning hours but perhaps lingering for the Central Coast into the early afternoon. Amounts will be greatest in the coastal ranges where 0.5-0.75" is possible, but elsewhere look for amounts of generally 0.25" or less. So this should be a beneficial rainfall with no real hydrologic concerns expected. Some modest instability will be present over the Pacific waters as well so can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15% potential)
there. However odds of seeing any lightning for land areas is much lower (~5%). High temperatures will undergo a cooling trend given more cloud cover with afternoon temperatures mostly in the lower to mid 60s for the lower elevations. Overnight readings will remain a bit milder with lows mostly in the 40s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

The region will remain in an unsettled northwest flow pattern aloft as a series of weak perturbations traverse the mean flow. In general the best moisture and forcing for ascent will remain across far NorCal and the Pacific Northwest, however we'll remain just close enough to occasionally be brushed with some light showers. Rain amounts don't appear overly impressive (generally 0.10" or less)
although it's possible the Sonoma Coastal Ranges could receive up to 0.25" through early next week. Expect a gradual warming trend in temperatures through early next week as the greatest rain chances shift north of our area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Currently VFR throughout the region. High clouds will build across the region today, with more mid-level clouds building tonight and Wednesday morning as a low pressure system approaches the region.
Winds will build from the south and the southwest this afternoon, up to 10 knots at the terminals. Winds diminish in the evening hours, turning towards the southeast and east as rain approaches the region. Some marginal MVFR conditions are possible in the North Bay terminals with the heaviest rain. Considered adding MVFR ceilings to the STS and APC TAFs, but ceilings appear to be too patchy to have good confidence in the forecast. Winds strengthen to around 8-10 knots with the best rain chances through Wednesday morning, then diminish as the rain chances move out.

Vicinity of SFO...Generally VFR through the TAF period with possible decreased visibility in the heaviest rain. Afternoon winds from the southwest at up to 10 knots, diminishing in the evening before rain arrives overnight, accompanied by winds turning to the southeast with speeds increasing to up to 10 knots. As the low pressure system moves out, rain chances decrease while winds turn to the east and diminish.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with mid- to high level clouds through the TAF period. Breezy drainage winds at SNS turning to the north later this morning, and southwest winds building to 10 knots at MRY, before diminishing early this evening. Rain chances arriving early Wednesday morning, with southeasterly winds building to 8-12 knots through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 935 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

Southerly winds steadily building today with a low pressure system approaching the the local waters. Fresh to moderate breezes are expected, with briefly strong breezes possible in the northern offshore waters. Scattered showers develop late tonight and persist through the first half of Wednesday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to northerly late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop by Thursday night. A larger moderate period northwest swell should arrive by late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into this weekend with plenty of cloud cover and periodic shower chances.

BEACHES
Issued at 119 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from late this morning into early this afternoon for coastal areas around San Francisco Bay.
Tide levels have been running around one to two thirds of a foot above predictions, with minor flooding observed during high tide yesterday. Minor flooding of vulnerable, low-lying, areas along the shoreline is again anticipated around today's high tide cycle during the late morning hours with impacts gradually waning through early afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508.

PZ...None.

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Petaluma River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:09 AM PST     5.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM PST     2.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:41 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:28 PM PST     6.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:20 PM PST     -1.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petaluma River entrance, San Pablo Bay, California, Tide feet

Petaluma River Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:30 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:29 AM PST     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:35 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:41 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:15 AM PST     0.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:39 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:31 PM PST     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:48 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:52 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:53 PM PST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petaluma River Approach, San Pablo Bay, California Current, knots

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