Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Piney Point, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Well above normal temperatures through Wednesday afternoon.

- 2) Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through; a significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday.

- 3) A series of cold fronts crossing the area into early next week will lead to multiple temperature swings.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures through Wednesday afternoon.

Very warm temperatures will continue across the region through Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures in the middle 70s and perhaps approaching 80 (mainly in central VA). Dry conditions once again this afternoon and plenty of sunshine.

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy on Wednesday as this day should be the warmest day. Some daily temperature records look possible (see Climate section below for more information). This is ahead of a powerful cold front, which will bring a substantial change to the weather thereafter.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through; a significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday.

A deep, digging, positively northern stream trough and its associated strong cold front dive out of the Great Lakes Wednesday. The cold front crosses the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. All of this creates a very complex severe weather setup across the region. The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) to include most of the area. However, it does come with some caveats, which I'll reiterate here. Primary among them is the question of ongoing morning showers/convection, and the potential impact that could have no destabilization during the afternoon. As is typical, model guidance is very split on how much instability is able to recover ahead of the pre-frontal trough that will be the primary severe threat on the day. I do think that seeing the latest CAM guidance in favor of 750-1250 J/kg of CAPE being able to develop has me a bit more concerned.
Assuming that we do get adequate CAPE, storms will fire along a pre-frontal trough during the early afternoon hours across eastern WV before moving east towards the metros during the evening. The environment where storms may develop will be impressive from a shear standpoint, with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear, and substantial amounts of Storm Relative Helicity (150+ m2/s2 0-1km, and 400+ m2/s2 in the 0-3 km layer). This is more than favorable for supercell structures to develop, with damaging winds, large hail, and even a tornado or two not out of the question. Looking at the combination of shear and instability, the STP is actually pretty impressive in model guidance. For this reason, there is actually a CIG1 hatched area in our 2-5% tornado probabilities across western MD and into the Potomac Highlands. I wouldn't even argue having with having that threat even extended a bit further east along the MD/PA border in a future update, but will let the 12z CAMs and machine learning guidance come in for evaluation. Additionally, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall will all be threats with any storms that develop on Wednesday afternoon.

At any rate, Wednesday afternoon/evening is a day to watch closely. Have your severe weather plans ready, in case you find yourself needing to act on them. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from our office, as well as the Storm Prediction Center, for the latest updates.

Confidence drops off significantly with the severe threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty line of showers could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the front pushes through. Would expect this to be more along the lines of a gusty surge along the front (30-40 mph), followed by increased synoptic winds shortly thereafter.

Expect any residual moisture over the mountains on Thursday to change to snow with a coating to 1" expected on grassy/elevated surfaces.

In addition to the thunderstorm threat, will be the concern for gusty winds. Expect gusty south/southwesterly flow Wednesday ahead of the boundary switching to the west and northwest Thursday behind the front. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph (45 to 55 mph along the ridges) can be expected in warm air advection Wednesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty in regards to these gusts given mixing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A series of cold fronts crossing the area into early next week will lead to multiple temperature swings.

Temperatures take a 15 to 30 degree dive Thursday as gusty west to northwest flow ramps up. Confidence is a bit higher here for the wind given the residual gradient/high pressure returning from the south. A non-diurnal temperature spread is expected with highs ranging from the upper 30s over the mountains to upper 50s along and east of I-95.

A progressive mid-latitude pattern will allow a myriad of short and longwave troughs to trek across the country. Such a regime supports marked temperature swings as the associated cold fronts push toward the Eastern Seaboard. The peak in the warmer phase of this pattern would be on Sunday before temperatures come crashing down into next week.

A compact upper trough pushing across the Great Lakes toward eastern Canada will carry a deep cyclone with it. Global guidance keep the low track mainly near/north of the international border with Canada.
Given how far the forcing is from the local area, expect a few showers across the Alleghenies on Friday, but otherwise most of the area remains dry. The robust wind field with the trough will make for breezy conditions on both Friday and Saturday. Given the higher winds are aloft, the strongest gusts should be confined to mountain locales.

There has been a trend in the guidance toward warmer conditions for Sunday as highs rise well into the 60s. However, an even more pronounced system swings across the eastern U.S. late Sunday into early next week. In response, global ensemble solutions show a marked fall in temperatures. This brings a return to more winter- like conditions for the early/mid portions of next week.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain light out of the south. Some patchy fog is possible tonight as more warm and moist air moves in.

A strong cold front will bring the return of sub-VFR conditions Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Showers and even a few thunderstorms look to impact the terminals during this time.
Some storms could be severe Wednesday afternoon/evening, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. There remains some uncertainty with regards to coverage of storms, so that will be the main question mark in the forecast at this time.

Outside of the shower and thunderstorm threat will be the wind.
Expect gusty south to southwesterly winds up to 25 kts Wednesday switching to the northwest with gusts 25 to 35 kts Thursday afternoon.

Expect largely VFR conditions on Friday into Saturday with any precipitation threats to the west of all TAF sites. The bigger story will be the gusty winds on Friday ahead of another strong cold front. Ahead of this system, expect southerly gusts to around 25 to 30 knots before winds shift to west-northwesterly into Saturday.

MARINE
Sub-SCA winds prevail this afternoon in a light southerly wind as high pressure builds nearby.

SCA conditions are possible in southerly channeling Wednesday into Wednesday night. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible, especially over the open and middle waters of the Chesapeake Bay/tidal Potomac River. This will become increasingly likely by Wednesday evening, with more marginal chances during the day.

A strong cold front will cross the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to a few gusty showers/t-storms (SMWs may be needed as these push through) and gusty post-frontal north to northwest flow. Gusts of 25 to 35 kts can be expected with even some northerly channeling over the northern Chesapeake Bay. Winds will gradually decrease Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Ahead of a strong cold front, southerly channeling effects will lead to increasing wind fields across the area waterways. Gusts up to 30 to 40 knots are possible on Friday, especially over the Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for Friday into Friday night, with Gales possible.

Winds diminish some behind the front with mainly west- northwesterlies on Saturday.

CLIMATE
Daily high records could be tied or set this afternoon and Wednesday.

Wednesday is the most likely day for warm low records to be tied/set due to cooler air arriving after midnight Wednesday night.

Washington DC (DCA)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 79F/2016 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 57F/2016 57F/2016

Washington-Dulles (IAD)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 80F/2016 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 59F/2016 49F/1967

Baltimore (BWI)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 80F/2016 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 57F/2016 53F/1955

Annapolis (NAK)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 78F/2016 74F/1967 Record Warm Low 56F/2020 52F/1986

Charlottesville (CHO)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 80F/2016 83F/1925 Record Warm Low 58F/2020 53F/2016

Martinsburg (MRB)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 80F/2016 78F/2021 Record Warm Low 53F/2016 49F/1955

Hagerstown (HGR)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 80F/2016 79F/2021 Record Warm Low 57F/2016 53F/2016

Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH)
Date March 10 March 11 Record High 82F/2016 76F/1967 Record Warm Low 60F/2016 56F/2016 56F/1955

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.