Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Piney Point, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure will glide offshore through tonight. Mid and high level clouds will increase as a clipper system traverses the Midwest. A few flurries could approach western Maryland during the pre-dawn hours, but the accumulating snow is not expected to begin until later Wednesday morning.

Low temperatures will be "milder" (relatively speaking) tonight thanks to the increasing clouds and a steady southerly wind.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Initially focusing on the Alleghenies, the leading edge of a trough will bring an initial rain/snow mix to start the day on Wednesday. However, thermal profiles quickly shift over to all snow along the western slopes of the Alleghenies. Omega fields are fairly impressive which supports the potential for bursts of snow showers as this trough axis passes through. Ample low-level CAPE should result in squalls, with one wave during the late morning and another during the mid/late afternoon into the evening. Lift/CAPE doesn't squarely overlap the DGZ during this time, but that changes after midnight Wednesday night as the column cools. Snow showers likely spill east of the Eastern Continental Divide late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with perhaps a dusting as far east as Cumberland-Keyser-Petersburg- Franklin-Monterey.

Blustery winds will favor areas of blowing snow which could lead to significant reductions in visibility and blizzard conditions, especially along and west of the Allegheny Front where Blizzard Warnings have been issued. Be sure to check the forecast at weather.gov/lwx and weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Elsewhere, some light precipitation is possible along and north of US-50, particularly closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. For activity that does make it out to northern Maryland, early morning thermal profiles would favor a light wintry mix. Any accumulations would be minimal and focus over the Catoctins.
Despite ample clouds, temperatures warm through the day aided by the breezy southerly winds around 20 to 25 mph (30 to 40 mph across the mountains). Highs are forecast to reach the mid/upper 40s, with some low 50s possible.

Winds begin to shift to westerly by Wednesday evening as the cold front tied to the clipper system passes through. While clouds decrease through the night, upslope-aided snow showers continue along and west of the Alleghenies into Thursday.
Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s (teens to mid 20s for the mountains). The blustery conditions should lower wind chills into the single digits over the higher terrain.

Temperatures return to below average on Thursday behind the strong cold front. The broad deep upper low across the northeastern U.S. will also keep some clouds around. As mentioned earlier, snow showers continue for the Alleghenies which will further pile up at a number of spots. Conditions over the Alleghenies should be cold and blustery as Thursday's highs remain in the upper teens to 20s. The gusty west-northwesterlies drop wind chills into the single digits again. Weak high pressure builds in for Thursday night as lows fall into the upper teens to 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weak disturbance embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft will approach from the Ohio Valley on Friday. Precipitation associated with this system will be light, but 12z guidance has trended slightly upward with totals across our area. Plenty of cold air will be in place at both the surface and aloft on Friday.
Temperatures may briefly climb into the mid to upper 30s, but would quickly wet-bulb back below freezing with onset of precipitation. As a result, precipitation type is expected to be all snow with this system. Model soundings show the strongest lift intersecting the dendritic snow growth zone, so a dry, fluffy, high SLR snow character appears likely. Most solutions show snow breaking out during the morning hours to the west of the Blue Ridge, and then spreading to the east of the Blue Ridge by the afternoon and evening. Snow totals will likely be on the lighter side, with most model solutions showing between a coating and two inches. Depending on the exact track of the system, some locations may experience no precipitation at all. Given potential impacts to the Friday evening commute, this system will bear watching over the coming days.

After a brief break during the daylight hours Saturday, another much more potent disturbance will dive southeastward toward the area from the Great Lakes. This will also be a very moisture-starved, northern stream system. As a result, it will struggle to produce any more than a little light precipitation, and some locations may again receive no precipitation. It appears as though guidance is trending a bit warmer ahead of this system, so precipitation could occur as rain or snow, with the greatest chance occurring Saturday night.

Strong cold advection will ensue behind that system on Sunday as upper troughing moves overhead and a strong, 1040+ hPa high builds southward across the Midwest. Strong northwesterly winds will usher an Arctic airmass into the region, leading to the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the teens Sunday night (single digits in the mountains), with wind chills in the single digits above/below zero. Cold but dry conditions will persist through Monday as high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures are forecast to max out in the upper 20s and lower 30s on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Thursday across the area. Canadian high pressure initially centered over the region will gradually push offshore tonight. Some elevated breezes continue into the evening/night. Removed LLWS from the TAFs given not much directional change with height and a steady surface wind persisting through much of the night.

By Wednesday, southerly winds further increase ahead of a quick moving clipper system. Some brief restrictions are possible 15Z-21Z Wednesday at northern terminals as light precip tracks through. Otherwise, most stay dry through the day with southerly gusts to around 20 to 25 knots. The accompanying cold front races across the region by Wednesday evening which ushers in a gusty west-northwesterly wind in the wake. Northwesterly breezes remain elevated into Thursday as an upper low passes to the north.

VFR conditions are expected Friday morning. Sub-VFR conditions appear possible Friday afternoon into Friday evening, and then potentially again Saturday night in association with snow. Winds are forecast to be out of the southwest on Friday, before turning out of the west on Saturday.

MARINE
High pressure will push offshore tonight which aids in southerly channeling effects. The uptick in southerly winds continue into much of Wednesday ahead of a cold front. While some gale-force winds are noted in the column, most gusts should stay in the 25-30 knot range.

By Wednesday evening/night, winds shift to west-northwesterly behind the cold front with continued advisory-caliber winds overspreading the waters. Hazardous marine conditions continue into Thursday as northwesterlies gust to around 20 to 25 knots.

Sub-SCA level southwesterly winds are expected on Friday. SCA conditions appear possible within westerly flow on Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
While current tidal anomalies are around 0.25 to 0.50 feet, expect these to rise through Wednesday in response to the shift to southerly flow. This does bring Annapolis and possibly Havre de Grace into Action stage. However, this is rather brief before water levels quickly fall behind the strong clipper-type system during subsequent days.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday for MDZ008.
Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ509.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for MDZ510.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for VAZ503.
WV...Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.