Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Piney Point, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday July 11, 2020 1:15 PM EDT (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 11:06AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1037 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will stall near the waters throughout the weekend. The front will push eastward into the atlantic on Monday as high pressure builds over the eastern united states through much of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Piney Point, MD
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location: 38.13, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 111418 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1018 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will remain stalled near or just east of the Chesapeake Bay this weekend as an upper level disturbance drops into the region on Sunday. Thereafter, high pressure will push the boundary off the coast and dominate over much of the eastern U.S. through the upcoming work week, with an extended stretch of hot and humid conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. It's a fairly quiet start to the weekend. "Cold front" (definitely worthy of being in quotes) is not easy to pick out in the surface obs, but based on the pressure pattern is probably somewhere close to the western shore. Today's weather- maker is actually behind the front, in the form of an upper wave moving across northern Pennsylvania. Given how far north that disturbance is, it isn't likely to make much weather for our service area. Current radar bears that out, with plentiful echoes over NE OH and NW PA, pivoting more eastward than south.

That said, there are some signs in high-res guidance of isolated to scattered showers -- and maybe an embedded thunderstorm -- getting down toward the Mason-Dixon Line this afternoon. For the morning update, I raised PoPs slightly near the PA border but lowered them further south. Best chance is north of I-70 but cannot be ruled out as far south as US 50 (or even further south in Southern Maryland). Temps are running a little cooler than the hourly forecast but I think are still ultimately on track.

Dry conditions tonight as winds go light and variable and temperatures hold near seasonable levels in the 60s to near 70 degrees in the cities and immediately along the Bay/Potomac.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Another shortwave drops down from the Great Lakes on Sunday, taking a further southward track compared to the disturbance on Saturday. This will deliver better coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with higher POPs residing west of the Blue Ridge where the better lift and instability will be present, as well as assistance from the terrain. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible given strong heating and marginal shear. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is highlighted by SPC along and west of the spine of the Blue Ridge.

The actual trough axis slowly tracks through the area Sunday night into Monday, so will carry POPs through the overnight hours Sunday, however with the loss of daytime heating, coverage and intensity will diminish. The axis of the upper trough and energy from the upper disturbance will push to our east late Monday, lifting to our northeast Monday night. Another chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be focused mainly east of the Blue Ridge and to the Bay. With the lifting shortwave and a more downsloping component to the wind, coverage and intensity of showers/storms on Monday will be less compared to Sunday. Dry conditions will prevail Monday night behind the exiting system. Hot and humid conditions will continue to be the theme Sunday through Monday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day, while overnight lows fall into the middle 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper level troughing will be moving to the east on Tuesday while surface high pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley. This will lead to a dry day with near normal temperatures.

For the middle to end of next week a hot summertime ridge will extend across the southern US and nose up the east coast, while a closed low remains near central Canada. For Wednesday, the surface high will still be nearby and return flow won't be fully established yet. While a stray shower/storm could form over the mountains, most of the area should be dry, with temperatures edging a little above normal.

There's still some model spread in low level temperatures as well as how quickly the low level heat builds in. Thursday still looks like it has potential to be the hottest day of the week, with highs in the 90s (a 100 is not impossible in spots) and heat indices potentially above 100. With quasi-zonal flow, embedded shortwaves are difficult to time, though it looks like the main chance for a few storms on Thursday will be over the mountains.

By Friday, a weakness in the ridge may allow heights to lower some and a lee trough to develop. This would present the best opportunity of convection in the extended forecast. Temperatures may also be a few degrees lower.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Behind a cold front to the east, there could be a few brief gusts to 20 knots this afternoon, especially at MRB (already happening at CBE and OKV nearby). An isolated shower or storm this afternoon could bring a brief period of sub VFR conditions (most likely at MTN, but also cannot be ruled out anywhere except CHO) but confidence in occurrence is too low for TAF inclusion at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through tonight as winds trend light and westerly.

The aforementioned front will stall southeast of the terminals through Sunday as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the terminals late Sunday and Sunday night, bringing the potential for periodic sub VFR VIS/CIGs. Additional showers and thunderstorms may affect the terminals Monday afternoon and early evening as another upper level disturbance crosses. Winds Sunday and Monday will remain light out of the WSW, veering out of the NW Monday night.

High pressure will provide VFR conditions and light winds for Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE. A cold front will be near the waters today, with a slight uptick in winds late this morning and this afternoon. Mixing will likely be limited over the waters, but can see portions of the upper Potomac and northern Bay zones experiencing occasional gusts to around 18 knots for a few hours this afternoon. Will hold off on Advisory at this time given low confidence and expectant occasional nature instead of frequent.

Sub SCA conditions tonight and Sunday as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls just to our southeast and the over all gradient remains weak. Winds will trend light and out of the west southwest. Locally gusty winds from showers and thunderstorms may be a threat late Sunday and again on Monday as a disturbance crosses the region.

High pressure will build across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Light northwest winds will gradually become southeasterly.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide this morning will remain below minor flood levels, and in fact needed to lower the forecast slightly in the upper Bay and upper tidal Potomac, as the re-surge behind Fay was less significant than expected. At this time, no minor flooding is forecast but tides will stay above normal.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JE NEAR TERM . JE/BKF SHORT TERM . BKF LONG TERM . ADS AVIATION . JE/BKF/ADS MARINE . JE/BKF/ADS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 0 mi45 min NNW 5.1 G 6
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 10 mi45 min W 6 G 8.9 83°F 83°F1007.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 14 mi45 min E 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 82°F1007.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 20 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 1007.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi45 min W 6 G 8 80°F 82°F1007.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 30 mi21 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 81°F 83°F
NCDV2 30 mi45 min ESE 4.1 G 6 84°F 85°F1006.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi45 min SSW 2.9 G 6 85°F 83°F1007.1 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi21 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 84°F1010.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi105 min SE 4.1 1007 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 49 mi45 min SSW 11 G 12 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD5 mi22 minWSW 710.00 miFair87°F75°F67%1006.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD13 mi20 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F71°F62%1007.8 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD13 mi23 minW 510.00 miA Few Clouds86°F75°F70%1007 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNUI

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7
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NW5NW8W6W6SW3SE7E4SE4S5S7SW12SW10SW8SW10SW5SW8S8SW8SW9SW6SW7SW7SW7
1 day agoNE12E8E6E9E13
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E106E5NE6NE7NE6NE6N5353Calm34NW7
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2 days agoE7SE4SE7E7SE8E6E53E3E4E3CalmCalmNE3NE4NE3NE3NE5NE5NE7E8NE10NE9E8

Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 12:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:50 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:16 PM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:39 PM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.40.30.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.3-00.30.50.40.30-0.2-0.4-0.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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