Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Piney Point, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Evening update: Skies have cleared out across the area this evening as cold/dry advection continues at low levels. High clouds are expected to start to increase over the next few hours ahead of an approaching upper trough. Despite the increase in cloud cover, dry conditions are expected through the night.
Previous discussion follows...

Dangerous wind chills are anticipated through tonight, especially for the higher elevations. Cold Weather Headlines remain in effect for wind chills around 0 to the single digits below zero for much of the area tonight, with -15 to -30 at higher elevations (coldest on the peaks of the Alleghenies).

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A pronounced wave aloft will pivot across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. The wave, coupled with brief upslope flow and modest moisture, may result in mountain snow showers during the day into the evening. A coating to a couple inches is possible along and west of the Allegheny Front. Further east, mid-level moisture and lift will be present much of the day, but the low levels look quite dry. This should limit any precip to just a few flurries, especially east of I-81. Towards evening, low-level moisture and low/mid-level fgen subtly increases a bit, and a few snow showers are possible during this time.
Although amounts should be just a light coating and relatively spotty, a few pieces of guidance have close to an inch in isolated spots. Regardless, any accumulation will result in slick travel given the very cold temperatures.

Speaking of the cold temperatures, bitter cold will continue through the middle of the week. Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below normal. When combined with the wind (especially at higher elevations), this will result in dangerous wind chills.
Cold Weather Headlines have been extended through Thursday morning to account for the dangerous cold. Below is a list of actions we can take to ensure safety during this cold snap:

-Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside.

-To prevent water pipes from freezing; wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly.

-Drain in-ground sprinkler systems and cover above ground pipes.

-Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

-Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water.

-Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors.
Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside.

Temperatures will moderate some on Thursday, but will remain below normal with highs in the 20s and 30s. Any lingering moisture will either remain frozen or re-freeze through the middle of the week given the persistent very cold temps, so remain alert for icy patches when traveling.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The period closing out the work week and heading into the weekend will provide a slow but steady return to near average temperatures.
Closing out Thursday night, a wave of low pressure continues to trend further south and east of the Mid-Atlantic region. This appears to be a theme of all global ensemble suites. As such, the threat for any precipitation threats would be confined to the Carolinas and points southward. While the northern branch of the jet stream remains active, additional disturbances aloft are slated to pass through the southeastern U.S. late in the work week. Shifting focus to the weekend, expect mid/upper heights to flatten out and even build some. Ultimately this carries temperatures to near average for late January by the weekend. This period is largely dry aside from some upslope snow showers along the Alleghenies on Friday morning.

After surface high pressure takes charge over the weekend, the guidance continues to show upstream height falls bringing a shift to the pattern by late Sunday into Monday. Deterministic models continue to exhibit quite a bit of variability into this period.
However, even toward the colder side of the spread, temperatures at worst stay near average. There is some hint at wintry precipitation at the onset as high pressure is slow to exit the New England coast.
If this were to occur, it would likely be freezing rain or sleet as low-level cold air is often slow to erode in the middle of winter.
Given this is around a week out, details will likely remain fuzzy the next few days.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Light northwesterly winds and VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

A disturbance will cross the area Tuesday, resulting in mid- level ceilings. There is a low chance for MVFR conditions and a few snow showers or flurries during the afternoon and evening.
Winds will be light from the west to southwest.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday. A few northwesterly wind gusts to 20 kt are possible, especially in the morning.

Anticipating VFR conditions for Thursday into the weekend with dry weather expected. Initial southerly winds give way to northwesterlies by Friday as a cold front exits offshore. High pressure settles near the area with winds turning southwesterly on Saturday.

MARINE
Gusty NW winds and very cold weather are expected through tonight. Winds will gradually diminish later tonight into Tuesday ending the freezing spray threat for a time, but winds likely increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday with renewed SCAs/freezing spray possible.

Winds during the latter portions of the work week should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. With a cold front exiting offshore, forecast winds shift from southwesterly to north-northwesterly on Friday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for DCZ001.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ003>006- 008-011-013-014-502>508.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ001-501.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ016>018.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ025>031- 038>040-051-053-054-501-502-505-506-526-527.
Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ503-504- 507-508.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ036-037-050-055>057.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ050>053- 055-502-504.
Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ501-503- 505-506.
MARINE...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534- 541-543.