Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dames Quarter, MD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy and very warm today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted Bermuda high pressure offshore with surface low pressure over SE Canada. A cold front extended S and W from the low all the way into SW TX. Aloft, a ridge expands NE from the central Gulf into the Mid Atlantic today.
Temps as of 230 PM ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s under partly cloudy skies. Very warm and remaining dry today with continued breezy SW winds resulting from low pressure to the NW and high pressure offshore. Wind gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible through this afternoon with the strongest winds along the coast and across the Eastern Shore. Afternoon temps rise well into the 80s inland with even some upper 80s to around 90 degree readings possible as heights aloft continue to build.
Clouds increase tonight with lows in the 60s (mid 60s for most).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor cold front drops south and west Sunday, leading to a range of temperatures across the area.

- The front lifts back to the north on Monday with low level moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.

The challenging aspect of the near term forecast is the temps Sun. A backdoor cold front pushes S/SW Sunday, however, colder air/onshore flow will lag behind the surface boundary by a few hours.
Additionally, winds likely remain light behind the front which likely delays CAA. As such, highest confidence in temps is across S VA/NE NC where highs in the mid 80s are expected. The lowest confidence in temps is across central VA where highs may end up on either side of 80F by a few degrees depending on the timing of the CAA and any potential clearing. Farther NE, highs remain in the 70s are expected with upper 60s possible at Ocean City, MD. Temps fall late Sun afternoon into Sun night from NE to SW as CAA reaches the local area. As such, expect lows Sun night to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the Eastern Shore to the mid 50s to around 60F across mainland VA (highest temps across SW portions of the FA).
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies Sun become mostly cloudy Sun night with a few isolated, light showers possible across the far NW Sun night.

The front will lift north as a warm front on Monday with southerly flow and thinning clouds by the afternoon (partly cloudy skies). Mon remains dry with highs in the low-mid 80s inland and 60s to lower 70s for the Eastern Shore. There is a low chance for a few showers across the N half of the FA Monday night as a cold front pushes S towards the area, but not expecting more than a trace of precip for most (15-30% PoPs). Mon night remains mild with lows in the low- mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A weakening frontal boundary will meander over the region through the week with daily diurnal chances for showers and a few storms.

- Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s through the week.

Aloft, an upper level ridge remains across the area through the week. At the surface, high pressure remains centered offshore through most of the week with a weak frontal boundary lingering near or over the S portion of the FA. As such, above normal temps are expected through the week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day (upper 70s to mid 80s for most). Additionally, an unsettled pattern develops given the lingering frontal boundary with daily diurnal chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Predictability (and therefore confidence)
is low this far out with respect to PoPs. As we get closer and the location of the frontal boundary becomes more clear, confidence will increase. For now, have generally a 30-40% PoP each day for at least a portion of the FA (generally the S half of the FA).

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. SW winds remain gusty this afternoon with winds 15-20 kt and gusts ~25 kt. Guidance suggests there will be a brief period of LLWS at SBY tonight between 3-7z Sun. This may also impact RIC, however confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time.
Winds gradually diminish overnight. A backdoor cold front pushes south Sun, shifting winds to N and then NE 5-10 kt behind it. Not much low level moisture evident on forecast soundings, however, a few CU could form this afternoon near ECG. Otherwise, SCT cirrus remain across the region through this afternoon, becoming BKN tonight into Sun.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue this weekend. The next shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

MARINE
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated SSW winds gradually diminish late this afternoon and evening as a weak cold front approaches from the north.

- Winds shift to north then northeast behind the cold front Sunday but are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

1030mb high pressure is centered well off the Southeast coast this aftn. Meanwhile, low pressure is centered over SE QB, with a cold front trailing back through the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
The pressure gradient is resulting in a SW wind across the Mid- Atlantic coast, with wind speeds ranging from 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt S and 10-15kt with gusts to around 20kt N. Seas range from 2- 3ft S, to 4-5ft offshore N of Parramore Is. Waves in the Ches. Bay are approximately 2-3ft. SCAs remain in effect for most of the marine area with the exception of the Atlantic coastal waters S of Parramore Is. SCAs are scheduled to end at 4 PM for the middle Ches.
Bay and upper rivers, and this is still on track based on current observations. SCAs for the lower Ches. Bay and lower James River continue through 7 PM, and through 1 AM for the coastal waters N of Parramore Is. where elevated seas will linger.

The aforementioned cold front slowly approaches from the NW tonight.
The pressure gradient relaxes, and the cold front eventually does finally drop south through the area Sunday. A bit of a surge is possible behind the frontal passage, but the surge still looks to be sub-SCA as the front gradually weakens as it drops across the area.
Nonetheless, expect the wind to quickly veer from SSW to NE ~10-15 kt Sunday into Sunday aftn, then ESE Sunday night, and gradually shifting back to the SSE Monday with another warm front lifting through the region. A trailing cold front then approaches from the west and slowly crosses into the region late Tuesday. SCA headlines may potentially be needed over the Ches. Bay Monday night ahead of this boundary, before the pressure gradient relaxes Tuesday immediately ahead of the front. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a generally light (10-15kt or less) N to NE wind. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft later this weekend through the middle of next week. Waves in the Ches. Bay will primarily be 1-2ft Sunday through the middle of next week, with the exception of 2-3ft with increased southerly flow Monday night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632>634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.