Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newark, MD
May 18, 2024 5:37 PM EDT (21:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:34 PM Moonset 2:17 AM |
ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 319 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Through 7 pm - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds. Showers likely.
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Sun - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Sun night - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Tue - NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 319 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system moves across the carolinas this evening, then pushes off the coast tonight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
a low pressure system moves across the carolinas this evening, then pushes off the coast tonight into Sunday, before slowly moving offshore Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 182005 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 405 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool and dreary conditions across the area today with the potential for a few thunderstorms in NC. The widespread rain will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Cool and dreary this evening with overcast skies and spotty light showers
-Showers and a thunderstorm or two expected in NC counties this evening
Cool and dreary conditions are ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon. Latest analysis indicates a boundary is situated just to the south of the area with cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a trough/low pressure to the W and a shortwave traveling over the area. Very light echos on radar and obs indicate that drizzle/light showers are ongoing across eastern portions of the area. Overcast skies, rain, and the onshore flow have kept temps well below normal today. Afternoon obs show temps in the low 60s with a couple of sites even in the upper 50s. The extreme southern portion of the area is slightly warmer, with temps in the mid-upper 60s.
Redevelopment of showers and perhaps isolated rumbles of thunder are expected this afternoon in NC as the trough shifts east and a shortwave moves over the area. However, initiation of showers may prove difficult given the rain this morning and cool, misty conditions this afternoon. Indeed, the trend of high-res guidance today has been to keep the vast majority of precip to the south.
Therefore, have tightened up PoPs to keep anything above 55% to the extreme southern edge. If thunderstorms manage to develop, there is a marginal risk for isolated severe wind. Showers gradually diminish overnight, lingering longest in the far SE. Overcast skies continue tonight and lows will be in the upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun night will be in the mid 50s.
High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95 warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out, and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday
The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper 70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields Chnc PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. With temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated, went ahead and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions continue this afternoon and look to prevail for the 18z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most terminals are in IFR. MVFR at SBY likely continue through the evening, then CIGs will drop below 1kft late tonight. While heavier rain ended earlier today, light showers/drizzle continues across eastern portions of the area, which may degrade vsby at times. ECG could see heavier showers this afternoon and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, but the majority of the activity looks to stay to south of the forecast area. E winds become NE overnight. May be gusty at times near the coast.
Outlook: Conditions improve through the day Sun with the forecast now looking mainly dry, though BKN-OVC skies are slow to scatter out. Dry conditions and scattered cloud cover then expected through mid- week.
MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track ewrd and off the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and then 2-3 ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening, with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 405 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cool and dreary conditions across the area today with the potential for a few thunderstorms in NC. The widespread rain will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
-Cool and dreary this evening with overcast skies and spotty light showers
-Showers and a thunderstorm or two expected in NC counties this evening
Cool and dreary conditions are ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon. Latest analysis indicates a boundary is situated just to the south of the area with cool high pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a trough/low pressure to the W and a shortwave traveling over the area. Very light echos on radar and obs indicate that drizzle/light showers are ongoing across eastern portions of the area. Overcast skies, rain, and the onshore flow have kept temps well below normal today. Afternoon obs show temps in the low 60s with a couple of sites even in the upper 50s. The extreme southern portion of the area is slightly warmer, with temps in the mid-upper 60s.
Redevelopment of showers and perhaps isolated rumbles of thunder are expected this afternoon in NC as the trough shifts east and a shortwave moves over the area. However, initiation of showers may prove difficult given the rain this morning and cool, misty conditions this afternoon. Indeed, the trend of high-res guidance today has been to keep the vast majority of precip to the south.
Therefore, have tightened up PoPs to keep anything above 55% to the extreme southern edge. If thunderstorms manage to develop, there is a marginal risk for isolated severe wind. Showers gradually diminish overnight, lingering longest in the far SE. Overcast skies continue tonight and lows will be in the upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry Sunday aside from a stray shower or two. High temperatures will remain below normal, though may warm into the 70s for northwestern portions of the area.
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for north west portions of the area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn hrs). As such, temps in the NW counties may be up to 10 degrees warmer than locations at the coast. Highs in the W/NW look to reach at least the low 70s, while locations along the coast stay in the mid-60s. If clouds are quicker to clear out, could see temps reach the mid-upper 70s in the west, as some statistical guidance would suggest. Sunday looks more and more dry with latest high-res guidance. However, cannot rule out a stray shower or two. Lows Sun night will be in the mid 50s.
High pressure will shift to the S on Monday as low pressure moves farther offshore. Additionally, a ridge builds in aloft. Onshore flow continues, though, which will limit temps closer to the coast to the upper 60s-around 70. Meanwhile, locations along and W of I-95 warm into the upper 70s. Lows Mon night in the low-mid 50s. Warmer still on Tues as the high shifts offshore, skies mostly clear out, and winds shift to the SE. Onshore flow will once again limit temps at the coast, but will be warmer that days previous. Highs at the coast will be in the low 70s. Inland, temps warm to around 80.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Warmer and mostly dry for the mid-week period
- Afternoon/evening thunderstorms chances return Thursday and Friday
The warming trend continues mid-week with southerly flow in place and the upper ridge overhead. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies continues Wed. Highs will be in the mid-80s for most and in upper 70s-low 80s immediately near the coast. Global models indicate that a cold front will likely cross the region late in the week, but timing and coverage of associated showers/thunderstorms remains uncertain. For now, have mostly stuck with NBM guidance for PoPs.
This yields Chnc PoPs in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. With temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 70 anticipated, went ahead and included thunder as well. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time. May be a bit cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Currently showing temps around 80 across the N and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There will be another chance for afternoon storms Friday as a disturbance aloft passes through. Near average temperatures Saturday with another chance for scattered storms.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...
Degraded flight conditions continue this afternoon and look to prevail for the 18z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most terminals are in IFR. MVFR at SBY likely continue through the evening, then CIGs will drop below 1kft late tonight. While heavier rain ended earlier today, light showers/drizzle continues across eastern portions of the area, which may degrade vsby at times. ECG could see heavier showers this afternoon and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, but the majority of the activity looks to stay to south of the forecast area. E winds become NE overnight. May be gusty at times near the coast.
Outlook: Conditions improve through the day Sun with the forecast now looking mainly dry, though BKN-OVC skies are slow to scatter out. Dry conditions and scattered cloud cover then expected through mid- week.
MARINE
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the marine area later tonight.
Late this aftn, weak low pressure was centered over ern NC while sfc high pressure was centered over New England. Winds were ENE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-3 ft and seas were 3-4 ft. Low pressure will track ewrd and off the NC coast tonight into Sun, before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. Winds will become NE by tonight into Sun ranging from 10-15 kt N to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt S. Seas build to 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck Sound. Have added the other two coastal zns up to Chincoteague VA starting at 7 am Sun morning. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlc coast Tue into Wed, as weak low pressure lingers off the SE coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW, but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4 ft by Mon night/Tue, and then 2-3 ft by midweek.
A moderate risk for rip currents continues into this evening, with moderate for the northern beaches Sun and Mon, and high for the southern beaches, due to increasing NE flow and building seas.
HYDROLOGY
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...
Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional information.
Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over- performance would lead to additional flooding.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...
Astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 9 mi | 49 min | E 5.1G | 59°F | 59°F | 29.92 | ||
| 44084 | 24 mi | 67 min | 58°F | 60°F | 3 ft | |||
| 44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ | 30 mi | 37 min | NE 5.8G | 56°F | 54°F | 29.96 | 54°F | |
| 44089 | 32 mi | 41 min | 58°F | 3 ft | ||||
| LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE | 40 mi | 49 min | ESE 8.9G | 59°F | 63°F | 29.98 | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 47 mi | 49 min | WNW 1.9G | 66°F | 68°F | 29.95 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOXB OCEAN CITY MUNI,MD | 8 sm | 44 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 54°F | 72% | 29.97 | |
| KSBY SALISBURYOCEAN CITY WICOMICO RGNL,MD | 21 sm | 43 min | E 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 55°F | 68% | 29.95 |
North Beach Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:17 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:15 AM EDT 3.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:58 PM EDT 3.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:15 PM EDT 0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:17 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:15 AM EDT 3.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:58 PM EDT 3.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:15 PM EDT 0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
North Beach Coast Guard Station, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.9 |
| 2 am |
| 2.4 |
| 3 am |
| 2.8 |
| 4 am |
| 3.1 |
| 5 am |
| 3 |
| 6 am |
| 2.6 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Public Landing, Maryland, Tide feet
Dover AFB, DE,
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