Chance, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chance, MD

May 4, 2024 12:52 AM EDT (04:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM
Moonrise 3:05 AM   Moonset 3:07 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through late Saturday night - .

Rest of tonight - E winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.

Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.

Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through Saturday night before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chance, MD
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 040112 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 912 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes south and west of the area tonight.
On and off shower chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with daily chances of showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 910 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- On and off showers expected tonight through Saturday with the highest coverage inland.

- Becoming dreary for all areas Saturday with extensive low-level cloud cover.

Evening wx analysis shows that the backdoor cold front has just about crossed the FA (with a few obs in the s-central VA Piedmont showing mid 70s w/ mid 60s dew points. Scattered showers/tstms have developed near the front across our far SW zones. Meanwhile, a decent E-NE wind continues elsewhere (especially near the coast where there are areas of drizzle/fog...although VSBYs are mostly at or above 1SM attm). The front will settle to our SW overnight, but some elevated instability (based around 800-900mb) will overspread at least the western half of the FA overnight. Expect showers and potentially a tstm or two along/west of I-95 overnight, with no precipitation outside of drizzle near the coast. Patchy fog may also move onshore across SE VA and NE NC, but continue to think visibilities will not get too low given the elevated winds.
Overnight lows will be chillier than the previous few nights with upper 40s on the MD Eastern Shore and 50s for most of the rest of the area (lower 60s down along the Albemarle Sound).

The front will be well W/SW of the area by tonight into Saturday.
Sfc high pressure will be left in its wake across New England. This will wedge a cool/moist low-level airmass over the entire area for the day Saturday. This will also keep cloudy conditions in place.
The best forcing/lift and moisture remains across the W, so expecting the highest coverage Saturday mainly W of I-95. Despite this, it will tend to remain unpleasant even towards the coast w/ onshore flow and patchy drizzle. Continue to trend highs lower with temps struggling to reach 60 across the N, with mid 60s-low 70s elsewhere. There is a chance that far SW portions of the CWA (e.g., Northampton/Bertie Counties in NC) reach the upper 70s, but this may even be overdone. These values are still below NBM (especially S).
On and off "showery" rainfall continues overnight Saturday with lows in the 50s N to 60s S. QPF through tomorrow averages from up to 0.50" across the W, 0.1-0.4" central, and 0.00" to a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled, but warmer, Sunday.

- More humid on Monday with showers and storms areawide.

The front is expected to lift back N Sunday into Monday, shifting the low-level flow to the S. These factors should act to scour out the dreary conditions seen on Saturday. However, still expecting shower redevelopment in the aftn hours as temps warm into the 70s and 80s and the residual front and a weak disturbance aloft remains near the area. An early look at some CAMs show that they are not particularly enthusiastic at widespread rainfall coverage, which makes sense given a lack of any focused areas of lift. Lows Sun night in the 60s.

Upper heights begin building back N for Monday with high temps warming into the low 80s areawide. Despite the warmer temps, a lee trough is expected to develop in the aftn and evening hours.
Combined w/ an approaching shortwave from the OH River Valley, showers and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in the afternoon and slide eastward into the evening. Models show around 1000 J/kg of CAPE developing with rather weak shear.
Therefore, the severe threat looks relatively low, but cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. Soundings do show a rather saturated atmospheric column (PWATS potentially reach or exceed 1.5"), which could lead to some heavier downpours. Dew points also increase into the mid-upper 60s so the humidity will make it feel more like early summer. Shower/storm activity diminishes inland after midnight, but may linger closer to the coast overnight. Lows remain mild in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle to end of next week.

We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak shortwaves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. These convective complexes may also move through the region from the NW, but these features are notoriously hard to predict. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7-7.5 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. Instability will certainly not be a limiting factor as temps warm into the 80s and 90s every day. At this time, the synoptic pattern for severe looks most favorable Thursday with an approaching trough and the most robust CAPE. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday for the entire area and Friday for southern/southeast areas. We continue to have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become more active by the end of next week.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

Degraded flight conditions are expected to continue through the 00z/04 TAF period as MVFR to LIFR CIGs have already overspread the terminals in the wake of a backdoor cold front (with E-NE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt). IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected through much of the night with some improvement on Sat (to 1000-2000 ft) with continued onshore flow. In terms of precipitation, mainly dry wx is expected through 03z before more widespread shower activity approaches the W later tonight into Saturday. Cannot completely rule out thunder at RIC overnight, but the chance of this is very low. Areas of drizzle are also possible through Sat AM. Shower chances continue on Saturday (highest PoPs at RIC w/ lesser chances near the coast).

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through the weekend and even into Monday due to an unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers and tstms are expected on both Sunday and Monday. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 710 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been extended for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River through Saturday night.

- Small Craft Advisories for the seas north of the Virginia/North Carolina border have been extended until 1 AM Saturday.

- Winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will diminish a bit later tonight into Saturday morning before increasing Saturday.

Winds behind the backdoor cold front remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening (lower across the NC coastal waters).
Winds diminish some overnight but should still gust to 20 kt through the night. Winds ramp back up Sat afternoon into Sat night with gusts to 25 kt. Winds become ESE late Sat night as a warm front lifts N. Waves remain 2-4 ft during this time.
Given the gusts to 20 kt between the two surges, have opted to extend SCAs through Sat night to account for both surges for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Additionally, with seas of 4-6 ft this evening N of the VA/NC border and persistent E flow, seas should be slow to subside to 4 ft tonight. As such, have extended SCAs for all coastal waters N of the VA/NC border until 1 AM Sat.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the SE/SSE.
SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).Southerly flow looks as though it will persist through most of next week with the next backdoor cold front possible some time Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 905 PM EDT Friday...

Have maintained a Coastal Flood Statement for locations in the upper Bay as tides increase and stay just shy of minor flood stage overnight. Tidal anomalies continue to increase this weekend with minor to locally moderate flooding (at Bishops Head) possible across the middle and upper bay due prolonged onshore flow. Nuisance to minor flooding is possible up the James River as well Sat evening. Will likely need to upgrade the Coastal Flood Statement to a Coastal Flood Advisory across parts of the upper Bay for the Sat afternoon high tide. However, given that the upcoming high tide stays just below, will hold off for now.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 0 mi52 min E 14G19 54°F 69°F30.17
44042 - Potomac, MD 20 mi46 min E 16G19 53°F 64°F1 ft
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi52 min N 8.9G11 53°F 30.20
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi52 min ENE 8G11 54°F 64°F30.18
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi52 min E 12G14 52°F 67°F30.20
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 27 mi52 min E 12G15 56°F 67°F30.17
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 27 mi52 min ESE 11G15
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi40 min E 7.8G14 51°F 64°F1 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi52 min ENE 15G18 55°F 65°F30.14
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi46 min E 16G19 55°F 64°F1 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi52 min ENE 16G19 30.19


Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD 20 sm60 minENE 0710 smOvercast57°F50°F77%30.18
KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD 21 sm59 minE 0710 smOvercast55°F52°F88%30.17
KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD 22 sm27 minvar 05G1110 smOvercast52°F52°F100%30.20
Link to 5 minute data for KNHK


Wind History from NHK
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Hooper Strait Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
   
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Hooper Strait Light
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Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:16 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:24 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:58 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Hooper Strait Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1.3
1
am
1
2
am
0.6
3
am
0.3
4
am
0.2
5
am
0.2
6
am
0.5
7
am
0.8
8
am
1.3
9
am
1.6
10
am
1.8
11
am
1.8
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
0.4
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0.1
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0.6
8
pm
1
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1.7
11
pm
1.8



Tide / Current for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Fri -- 02:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:17 AM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:56 PM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.1
3
am
-0.1
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-0.4
6
am
-0.4
7
am
-0.3
8
am
-0.1
9
am
0.1
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.5
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.1
3
pm
-0.1
4
pm
-0.3
5
pm
-0.5
6
pm
-0.5
7
pm
-0.5
8
pm
-0.3
9
pm
0
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0.5




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