Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chance, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:40 AM EST (09:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:34PMMoonset 11:01AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 337 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Numerous showers.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 337 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will impact the area today. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories likely will be required Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chance, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 160838 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 338 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving front will become nearly stationary across the area today. A low pressure system crossing the mid Atlantic region Tuesday will drag a cold front across the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 330 AM EST Monday..

Early this morning, a weak area of high pressure is settled NE of the area while a nearly stationary boundary is draped near the VA/NC border. Some returns on radar have been noted just to the north of the area this morning, but it appears much of this is not making it to the ground at this time. Do however expect precipitation chances to increase across these areas over the next couple of hours. Temperatures this morning generally range from the upper 30s to lower 40s (some mid 30s SW where clearing occurred.)

Still looking at a tricky temperature forecast today that will be highly dependent on where the stationary front decides to set up shop. For now, sided closest to the NAM which tends to handle this kind of situation the best along with a blend of some high-res model guidance. This forecast has the front largely staying south of the Richmond metro today, positioned from around central Lunenburg county to south of Petersburg to around Norfolk. North of the boundary temperatures will only make it up into the lower to mid 40s (perhaps struggling to make it out of the upper 30s across the far NW until late) while south of the boundary, highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. There will likely exist a pretty substantial temperature gradient from N to S right across the Richmond metro area.

Precipitation-wise, it still appears that the bulk of today's precip chances will stay confined to the northern third of the forecast area. Low precip chances for the remaining forecast area (roughly RIC south). Precipitation may start out as a mixture of rain/snow, across the far NW (northern Louisa/Caroline counties) and northern portions of the MD Eastern Shore. QPF amounts are expected to remain light and surface temps a few degrees above freezing, thus am not expecting accumulation/significant impacts from this. Any wintry precip should come to an end across these areas shortly after sunrise.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Monday .

Tonight, the front will begin to makes its slow progression back to the north as a warm front as low pressure tracks from the TN valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures should remain fairly steady and then rise as the front tracks NW. Early lows will range from the upper 30s NW to the mid 50s S. Rain chances increase area-wide through the night into the morning hours ahead of the associated cold front that will cross western portions of the area Tuesday afternoon and exit offshore Tuesday night. The previously mentioned warm front should make it north of most of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon (a little less certainty across the far NW). With the front north of the region, the area will be in the warm sector with highs climbing into the low to upper 60s (70 across the far S). For the far N/NW, have highs making it up into the mid to upper 50s. Finally, there will be a touch of instability across the far SE by Tuesday afternoon/evening, thus would be not be shocked if we get a rumble or thunder or two with the cold frontal passage, but not high enough confidence to include in the forecast at this time.

Conditions improve quickly Tuesday night after the cold frontal passage and high pressure building back into the region through Wednesday. Modest CAA and clearing skies should drop temps to the 20s NW to the low/mid 30s SE. High pressure remains in control during the day Wednesday, allowing for dry conditions/sunny skies but chilly temperatures. Did not stray too far from the NBM with the Wednesday high temperature forecast and have highs in the mid to upper 40s. Cold Wednesday night with high pressure over the region, lows will generally be in the 20s area-wide, potentially upper teens across the NW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday .

High pressure remains in control Wednesday through Friday. This will result in dry weather and slightly below normal temps during this period. Low temps Thursday and Friday in the low 20s, near 30 at the coast, and high temps in the 30s/40s. Overnight model runs had a coastal developing over the SE and riding up the Atlantic coast next weekend. 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF today have a low developing over the eastern gulf and then slowly drifting off the SE coast over the weekend, while the CMC still tracks the low up the Atlantic coast. With the high uncertainty this far out, just went with low chance pops for next weekend.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1230 AM EST Monday .

VFR conditions at all sites to start the 06z TAF period with some SCT to BKN mid-level clouds (especially northern half of the area) around ~10k feet. KRIC may reach MVFR conditions Monday morning due to cloud bases around 3000 feet due to a stationary boundary lingering across the area. KSBY will likely fall to MVFR by late Monday morning or afternoon with -RA showers and remain MVFR for the majority of the day on Monday into Monday night. Winds will be light and variable to calm Sunday night. South of a stalled boundary winds will become SW around 10 kt (mainly for KPHF/KECG/KORF)

OUTLOOK . Tuesday has the potential for degraded flight conditions due to low clouds and rain across all airports ahead of a cold front which passes through the region Tuesday evening. High pressure builds Wednesday with VFR conditions returning.

MARINE. As of 330 AM EST Monday .

A backdoor cold front dropped swd along the Mid-Atlantic coast and has settled near the VA/NC border early this morning. The wind is NE 10-15kt N of the boundary, with seas generally 2-3ft, with up to 3-4ft offshore N of Chincoteague, and ~2ft waves in the Bay (although some areas of 2-3ft are possible early this morning). The boundary gradually lifts nwd this morning into early aftn, with the wind becoming E, the SE, and even S from the lower Bay swd with speeds aob 10kt. The boundary sharpens and creeps back swd late this aftn and evening, with the wind becoming NNE for the middle Bay and NE off the MD coast while remaining S to the south of the front, again with speeds aob 10kt. The boundary retreat back nwd late this evening through the overnight hours, with the wind becoming SE the S and increasing to 10-15kt. The boundary is forecast to lift N of the region Tuesday morning into early aftn as a strong cold front approaches from the NW, with the wind becoming SW 15-20kt, with 3- 4ft seas, and 2-3ft waves in the Bay. There is a potential for pre- frontal SCAs, but it is still early to issue any flags as there is some uncertainty with respect to the onset and extent.

The cold front is expected to cross the coast late Tuesday aftn and evening, with a period of strong CAA occurring by Tuesday night with a NNW wind increasing to 20-25kt with gusts up to 30kt. There is a potential for gusts to 35-40kt with 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises with the initial surge, but the current thinking is that the duration for stronger gusts will be less than 3hrs and more on the order of an SMW rather than a gale watch/warning. A secondary cold front and another round of CAA are expected by Wednesday night a NNW wind again increasing to 20-25kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas are expected to build to 4-6ft Tuesday night and again Wednesday night, with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. SCA conditions are likely to prevail Tuesday night through early Thursday, with perhaps a lull during the day Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday aftn into Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB SHORT TERM . AJB LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . AJB MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 0 mi65 min E 8 G 12 39°F 44°F1023.9 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 20 mi41 min ENE 12 G 14 40°F 46°F1023.7 hPa (+0.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi53 min E 8.9 G 11 40°F 46°F1023.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi65 min ENE 5.1 G 6 39°F 44°F1024 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 27 mi65 min E 12 G 13 41°F 45°F1023.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 27 mi53 min ESE 11 G 13
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi41 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 40°F 1 ft1024 hPa (-0.7)
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi59 min NE 6 G 8.9 40°F 47°F1023.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi71 min E 12 G 14 47°F1027.5 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi53 min ENE 11 G 13 1024.5 hPa
44089 49 mi41 min 50°F3 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD20 mi49 minE 810.00 miOvercast39°F26°F60%1023.5 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi48 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F26°F53%1023.3 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi46 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F26°F65%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW3W4W4NW3NW3--S4S6SW20
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Tide / Current Tables for Hooper Strait Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Hooper Strait Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:32 AM EST     1.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:00 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:54 PM EST     1.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:34 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.50.91.31.61.61.410.60.2-0-0.10.10.61.11.51.921.81.510.60.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:29 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:50 AM EST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     0.68 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.30.40.30.1-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.20.50.60.70.50.30-0.3-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.