Chance, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chance, MD

April 16, 2024 5:54 AM EDT (09:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM
Moonrise 11:49 AM   Moonset 2:12 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 442 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024

Rest of the overnight - N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt - . Becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.

Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Thu night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.

Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 442 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will settle near the virginia and north carolina border during the day Tuesday. This front will eventually return northward as a warm front Wednesday before another cold front crosses the waters Thursday morning. A stronger cold front approaches the region by late in the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed during the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chance, MD
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 160737 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 337 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front drops south of the area this morning. This front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front tonight into Wednesday. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and drier today with light east to northeast winds in the wake of a weak cold front.

- A few showers are possible tonight as the front starts to move back north as a warm front.

Latest analysis shows that the weak cold front has crossed the northwest third of the FA and continues to push southward. Showers have finally dissipated. The front will then cross the remainder of the area between now and 8-9 AM. Temps will only drop into the mid 50s-lower 60s following the FROPA, as winds become NE (could see a very brief period of 20-25 mph gusts near the coast between 5-10 AM). The wind decreases and veers to the east today with partly to mostly sunny skies (mainly due to high clouds). Dew points drop into the upper 30s-40s across much of the area by this aftn, and any instability should remain across western portions of the VA/NC. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s-80F inland, with mid 60s-mid 70s near the immediate coast. Mostly dry tonight although a few weakening showers will try to push into the area from the west as the front starts to move back north as a warm front. Lows generally in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, with low-end precipitation chances continuing through Thursday.

- Not quite as warm as yesterday, but remaining above normal through Thursday.

The front continues to move north on Wednesday, but will likely stall in/near the VA Northern Neck or Lower Eastern Shore. Despite mostly cloudy skies, highs likely reach the lower 80s across southern/western portions of the FA, but will fail to get out of the 60s across much of the eastern shore with E-SE flow off the cooler water. In addition, low clouds may hang around through much of the day north of the front. Of course, there is still some uncertainty regarding the temperature forecast on Wed...which will depend on the exact position of the warm front. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible on Wed (mainly during the aftn/evening), with a tstm or two also possible. Sfc low pressure will likely develop along the stalled front across nrn VA/the eastern shore Wed night...with some increase in shower coverage expected overnight near the coast. Precip should exit to the E/NE by sunrise on Thursday. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side (0.25" or less). Forecast lows Wed night in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.

Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite the weak cold front moving through and the LLVL flow becoming NW.
Will keep slight chance PoPs across the eastern 2/3rds of the area due to the cold frontal passage occuring during the day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...

-A stronger cold front arrives this weekend, with noticeably cooler temperatures expected by Sunday and Monday.

A slightly stronger shot of CAA arrives Thu night-Fri AM as the flow becomes NE as high pressure briefly builds in from the NNE. It will be cooler on Fri (60s near the coast/70s inland) with the NE to E flow. A stronger cold front is progged to approach from the NW Fri night and the 00z/16 global models now all show the front crossing the area on Saturday. Shower chances increase late Friday ahead of the front and continue through Saturday (although PoPs are only 20- 40% at most). There is a chc of tstms Sat aftn (highest S). However, this will depend on whether the FROPA occurs in the morning or aftn (a later FROPA would allow for a more widespread tstm threat in the local area). Temps on Saturday will depend on the timing of the FROPA. It will be much cooler behind the front on Sunday and Monday.
In addition, a southern stream low pressure system may bring additional rain to the region during this time (highest PoPs are in SE VA/NE NC)...although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding this. Otherwise, high pressure slowly builds in from the NW Sunday into Monday. Lows Sunday/Monday night will be cool, but at this time it does not look to be cool enough for widespread frost/freeze potential.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through the 06z/16 TAF period. Scattered showers INVOF ECG should diminish by 08z, with dry wx expected at all terminals thereafter. A cold front is progged to cross the terminals from N-S between now and 12z, and winds become NE at ~10 kt behind the front. Winds veer to the E then SE this aftn/evening with clear skies outside of SCT-BKN high clouds. Cloud bases lower tonight as the front starts to move back north as a warm front. MVFR CIGs are possible late tonight at RIC with low-end shower chances after 06z.

Outlook: Shower chances continue Wednesday/Wednesday night as that frontal boundary continues to move north before stalling in/near the eastern shore. Flight restrictions are possible Wed-Thu AM, especially at RIC/SBY. Drier conditions move in by late Thursday.

MARINE
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early this morning, a weak cold front has pushed into srn VA.
Winds were generally NW 5-15 kt behind the front, and SW or W 5-15 kt south of the front across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft.

The front will drop south of the remainder of the area by 7 or 8 am this morning, with winds becoming NE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the entire waters. Speeds will generally remain below SCA thresholds, though there may be a 2-3 hour period where the Bay sees very low-end SCA winds roughly between 7-10am. Opted not to issue a SCA, since it's so brief and right on the threshold line. Winds will become E or SE 5-10 kt this aftn. Expecting sub-SCA conditions for most of the week with off and on rain chances through mid-week. Waves will remain around 1-2 ft with seas of 2-3 ft. Seas will build to 4-5 ft for Thu night and Fri, but should subside to 3-4 ft for Sat and Sat night.

CLIMATE
Norfolk (KORF) set a new daily record high temperature with their high of 90 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high of 89 (1941).

Wallops (KWAL) set a new daily record high temperature with their high of 87 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high of 84 (1967).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 0 mi55 min NNE 8.9G13 64°F 64°F30.07
44042 - Potomac, MD 20 mi49 min NNE 19G25 58°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi55 min W 8.9G15 61°F 30.10
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi55 min N 8.9G15 62°F 57°F30.09
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi55 min NNE 8.9G12 62°F 60°F30.10
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 27 mi55 min N 8G15 62°F 62°F30.08
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 27 mi55 min NE 14G19
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi49 min N 12G18 56°F 57°F2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi55 min NE 19G31 61°F 64°F30.02
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi49 min N 18G23 60°F 60°F1 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi55 min N 19G21 30.06


Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD 20 sm62 minN 1110 smPartly Cloudy64°F43°F45%30.09
KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD 21 sm61 minNNE 07G1810 smMostly Cloudy63°F46°F55%30.06
KCGE CAMBRIDGEDORCHESTER RGNL,MD 22 sm29 minNNE 0510 smClear59°F41°F51%30.10
Link to 5 minute data for KNHK


Wind History from NHK
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Tide / Current for Hooper Strait Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
   
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Hooper Strait Light
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Tue -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:47 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:37 PM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Hooper Strait Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
0.5
2
am
0.3
3
am
0.3
4
am
0.4
5
am
0.7
6
am
1
7
am
1.3
8
am
1.5
9
am
1.6
10
am
1.6
11
am
1.4
12
pm
1.2
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
0.4
4
pm
0.4
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
1
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1.3



Tide / Current for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Tue -- 01:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:56 AM EDT     -0.30 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:37 AM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots
12
am
0.1
1
am
0
2
am
-0.1
3
am
-0.3
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-0.2
6
am
-0.1
7
am
0.2
8
am
0.4
9
am
0.5
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
0.1
2
pm
-0.2
3
pm
-0.4
4
pm
-0.5
5
pm
-0.6
6
pm
-0.5
7
pm
-0.3
8
pm
-0
9
pm
0.2
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0.3




Weather Map
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