Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 4:01 AM   Moonset 5:39 PM

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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1036 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers with isolated tstms. Patchy fog late this evening. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 070202 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1002 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe weather, especially mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 1000 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered showers and storms continue this evening mainly across E portions of the FA. Some training of convection is expected to continue across the Hampton Roads area over the next hour or two before rain moves off to the NE. Expect showers/storms to gradually taper off from W to E overnight. Additionally, with the locally heavy rainfall this evening, expect patchy to locally dense fog to develop inland (over areas that received the most rain). Lows tonight again mild in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee trough and the approach of a cold front, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tue through Thu. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warmer conditions are expected for Tue and Wed, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to around 90 Wed. Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the 80s. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure presence of instability all three days. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the region on Tue, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tue. The flow aloft then turns back to the WSW for Wed and strengthens, which will allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thu, as flow aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front, (quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While there is still some uncertainty, Thu has the potential for the highest coverage of severe storms this week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Showers/tstms will exit out to sea Thu night, as a cold front pushes to the coast. Then, a secondary front and upper trough will push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing the chance for more showers. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Fri mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight to small chance of showers (isolated thunder) for Sat aftn through Sun. Dry air also means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Just below normal to normal temps expected for Sat through Mon. Highs will be in the lower 70s Sat, in the lower to mid 70s Sun, and in the mid to upper 70s Mon.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered showers and storms continue this evening with locally heavy rain and IFR VIS. CIGs were generally VFR/MVFR. CIGs are expected to lower overnight to MVFR/IFR with the best chance for IFR CIGs where storms have been riding a boundary late this afternoon and evening (N portions of the FA including RIC and SBY). Lower confidence exists for ORF/PHF with ECG likely to remain MVFR. Showers taper off from W to E overnight and into Tue morning with CIGs improving to MVFR by early-mid morning.
Additionally, with the locally heavy rainfall this evening, expect patchy to locally dense fog to develop inland (over areas that received the most rain). MVFR/IFR VIS is possible with the fog. Any fog quickly erodes after sunrise. CIGs remain VFR/MVFR Tue with isolated to scattered storms developing in the afternoon and evening. Models are also beginning to hint that a marine layer pushes onshore over the Eastern Shore Tue night with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become variable ~5 kt N and SW ~10 kt S Tue afternoon.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Tue night through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
The greatest chance for storms is Thu with strong to severe storms possible.

MARINE
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Surface high pressure continues to move further offshore this afternoon, while a stalled frontal boundary remains just north of the local waters. Current conditions are rather benign with west/southwesterly winds around 8-12kt. Waves are 1 foot or less with seas of 2-3ft. This trend looks to persist through Wednesday with winds from the south-southeast to southwest around 10kt. There may be occasional gusts to 20kt keeping conditions below SCA criteria. However, there will be chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, which could produce erratic, strong wind gusts over the waters. Otherwise, southwest winds will gradually increase some ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Models differ in the expected speeds/overall pattern, but will keep an eye on the potential for SCA conditions at least across the Bay Friday/Friday night as winds turn northwesterly behind the front.
Rain/storm chances continue through the remainder of the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head)
will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay - due mostly to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week as we approach the new moon phase.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet

Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true

Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:47 AM EDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:38 AM EDT     0.35 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots

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