Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Point, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday April 9, 2020 8:46 AM EDT (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:46PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 833 Am Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 10 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft this afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt...diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Rain with a chance of tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 833 Am Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will pass through today and high pressure will gradually build overhead tonight through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and low pressure will pass through the waters Sunday night into Monday. A cold front will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday into Saturday. A gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Point, MD
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location: 38.23, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 091142 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 742 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front crosses the region later this morning. Gusty winds develop this afternoon and continue through Friday as low pressure intensifies off the northern New England coast while high pressure slowly builds in from the west. The high moves off the Carolina coast Saturday afternoon. The next low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday, and moves through the local area Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 315 AM EDT Thursday .

Latest analysis indicates a cold front located from central OH, SW through the lower OH Valley and to the mid-MS Valley. Out ahead of the front there is a large area of strong tstms currently pushing across the spine of the Appalachians. Mid level (700-500 mb) lapse rates per SPC mesoanalysis are on the order of 7 to 8C across SE WV and SW VA and in tandem with very strong winds aloft and 0-6km bulk shear values of 50+ kt, a Severe tstm watch is ongoing W of the local area with damaging wind as the primary threat.

As often occurs when crossing the Mtns, the storms are progged to weaken to some extent. However, bulk of high res models suggest the storms are still likely to hold together upon entering western portions of the CWA around 5-6am. Given the steep mid level lapse rates and MU CAPE values up 1000 J/Kg in place, this makes sense. Forecast is for 60-70% (likely) PoPs into the Piedmont from 5/6-7am, with PoPs gradually diminishing to 50-60% as the line is progged to weaken/evolve into more of a broken line as it nears the I-95 corridor ~7am. Will then have mainly chance PoPs farther E to the coast as the broken line moves through mainly from 7-9am and mainly offshore after 10 am. SPC has CWA in a Marginal risk for severe for this as the with the primary concern being damaging straight line winds if the line does not weaken to the extent that the high res models are forecasting. A minimal large hail threat is also still present. This will all be covered in the HWO. Clearing skies are expected by mid to late morning, but as the actual cold front approaches from the W, a secondary line of showers/tstms is expected to develop along the Mtns. With a deep layered downslope flow, most of this is likely to dissipate upon moving into the CWA by late morning or early aftn. The exception would be closer to the coast (especially N) where there is progged to be just enough instability remaining to warrant at least scattered showers/tstms from about16/17Z-20Z. Will have PoPs to 40-50% on the eastern shore, tapered to 20-30% into SE VA, with a generally dry forecast along and W of I-95.

By aftn, with deep mixing/strong pressure rises, and dew pts falling into the 30s along/W of I-95, winds will increase significantly from the W, shifting to the WNW. Gusts to 30-40 mph are expected all areas after 18Z. With the downslope flow, cold air will not arrive until the evening, so highs will average in the mid 70s to around 80F over much of the CWA, ranging from lower 70s NW to the lower 80s NE NC.

Turning much cooler tonight with lows in the upper 30s Piedmont and mainly 40-45F elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday .

Dry and windy Fri as intense sfc low pressure will be off the coast of Maine with high pressure building ESE from the Tn Valley. Highs will only range from the mid 50s N to around 60F S. Dew pts progged to fall into the teens to 20s and along with winds continuing to gust to 30-40 mph there could be Fire Wx concerns (see Fire WX section). Winds diminish Fri night, but are not likely to completely decouple until late over the Piedmont (if at all farther to the E/NE). A light freeze will be possible along/W of I-95, especially in the typically coldest areas. Current forecast is for lows around 32F in much of the Piedmont, mostly mid 30s central and interior E/SE VA, and upper 30s/lower 40s near the coast. Frost/Freeze products may be needed. Temps should rebound quickly into the lower 60s Saturday with mid to upper 50s along the Eastern Shore under sunny skies. Not as cold Sat night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday .

High pressure moves offshore Saturday night with strengthening south/southeast flow. A deep trough in the southern stream jet over Texas will partially phase with a northern stream trough, leading to rapid deepening of surface low pressure across the central Plains. Lows Saturday night will fall into the low and mid 40s. Deep southerly flow continues on Sunday with increasing low level moisture. Some timing differences remain regarding exactly when precip will move into the region with the GFS being the fastest and the ECMWF and GEM being somewhat slower to move the system to the east. For now, will show increasing PoPs from west to east on Sunday afternoon with the bulk of the precip coming Sunday night into early Monday afternoon. Given the disagreement between models, will cap PoPs at 70% through this period though these numbers will certainly be raised in subsequent forecasts. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s with mostly cloudy skies. Lows Sunday night will be quite warm, lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite the less than ideal overnight timing of the greatest rainfall chances, the kinematics with this system are forecast to be quite impressive and any instability that can materialize will set the stage for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the region. Will continue to monitor this potential in subsequent forecasts as the strength and timing of surface features becomes more clear. It appears that the surface cold front will lag the behind the moisture with temps on Monday warming considerably into the upper 70s and perhaps low 80s prior to the front passing through.

For the remainder of the extended forecast, temps cool a bit behind the front with lows Monday night in the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Tuesday should be mostly dry as low pressure lifts well away from the region into Canada. However, southwesterly flow aloft and weak low pressure at the surface will keep a chance for showers in the forecast into midweek.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 730 AM EDT Thursday .

Area of showers/tstms has weakened considerably over the past 2 hrs, now just scattered showers that are primarily E of I-95. Have included VCTS at KSBY as there is a cluster of tstms up that way, but just VCSH or TEMPO groups for SHRA elsewhere over the next few hrs.

Otherwise, even after any storms exit the area, winds will become strong/gusty from the W, shifting to the WNW through the aftn. Expect widespread gusts to 30-35 kt this aftn w/ skies becoming mostly sunny most areas. There is the potential for a secondary line of showers/tstms from about 16Z/noon through 3pm/19Z, primarily expected over the northern/ eastern sections and KSBY has the greatest chance for seeing this occur. KRIC/KECG have the lowest probability. Winds diminish to 10-20kt from the NW tonight under mostly clear skies.

Outlook . Conditions become very windy once again Fri shortly after sunrise with NW winds gusting to 25-35kt (potentially even higher at KSBY). Less wind/dry Fri night and Sat. Rain chances increase for Sunday with flight restrictions possible.

MARINE. As of 330 AM EDT Thursday .

A weak cold front will drop south of the area later this evening then diminish tonight. Late this aftn, winds were NW or W 5-15 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft.

On Thu, winds will be on the increase from the SW by late morning as a strong, fast-moving cold front approaches the waters by midday and sweeps across the waters Thu aftn. SW-W winds in advance of the front could reach 15-20 kt, but once the front moves through, a quick switch to the NW is expected with winds increasing to 15-25 kt. At this point, am expecting SCA level winds for the Rivers, Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and coastal waters north of Parramore Island for Thu aftn and evening. A few gusts of up to 30 kt are certainly possible Thu aftn north of Parramore Island. There will then be a brief lull in winds late Thu evening into early Fri morning before a stronger surge of W-NW winds occurs Fri into Fri night. Have issued a Gale Watch for the northern 2 coastal zones (north of Parramore) for Fri into Fri night, with SCA conditions expected everywhere otherwise lasting into Fri night. Have capped seas to around 5 ft north with the offshore flow and 3-4 ft south. Waves in the Bay will reach 3-4 ft Fri into Fri night.

High pressure slowly builds back into and over the region for later Fri night into Sat aftn, then slides off the coast Sat evening into early Sun morning. This will allow the winds to relax and seas to calm over the weekend before another system impacts the region late Sun into Mon.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 330 AM EDT Thursday .

Min RHs will be 20-25% over much of VA on Fri and depending on fuel moisture there could be some fire weather concerns for Friday afternoon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 330 AM EDT Thursday .

All coastal flood headlines have now been cancelled. It's possible that additional Coastal Flood headlines may be needed with the high tide cycle late tonight/early Friday morning for portions of the lower MD Eastern shore adjacent the Chesapeake Bay. Places like Bishops Head and Crisfield may come close to minor flooding thresholds given the quick uptick in W-NW winds this afternoon and high astro-tides.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634. Gale Warning from 4 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . LKB/JAO LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . LKB MARINE . JDM/TMG FIRE WEATHER . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 12 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 16 mi46 min W 6 G 13 61°F 56°F995.8 hPa (-1.9)
NCDV2 17 mi52 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 60°F 60°F995.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi46 min SSW 28 G 34 65°F 59°F995.2 hPa (-2.5)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi52 min NW 17 G 19 996.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi28 min SSW 23 G 27 63°F 995 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 28 mi34 min N 5.8 G 5.8 56°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi46 min S 8.9 G 11 60°F 61°F996.4 hPa (-1.5)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi46 min E 4.1 G 4.1 57°F 57°F995.7 hPa (-2.6)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi46 min E 1 G 2.9 56°F 60°F996.7 hPa (-1.3)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi46 min NNW 7 G 8 53°F 55°F997.9 hPa (-1.0)53°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD11 mi61 minWSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F51°F72%996.6 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi54 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds60°F55°F84%996.4 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi55 minWSW 15 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F52°F61%995.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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W6NW6NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmE3CalmSW7SW10
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2 days agoNE5N5NE6E6E5NE3NE5NE3NE4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:10 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:26 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.31.92.32.52.31.81.20.70.2-0.1-0.10.20.81.41.82.12.21.81.30.80.30-0

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:09 PM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     -0.85 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.50.1-0.3-0.7-1-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.40.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.