Rock Point, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rock Point, MD

April 14, 2024 9:54 PM EDT (01:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM
Moonrise 9:46 AM   Moonset 12:45 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 746 Pm Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am edt Monday - .

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.

Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Mon night - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.

Thu - W winds 10 kt - .becoming n. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.

Fri - NE winds 10 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.

ANZ500 746 Pm Edt Sun Apr 14 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
an area of low pressure and its associated cold front will drop through the mid-atlantic tonight into Monday. This front will likely stall just to the south Tuesday before returning northward as a warm front by mid-week. A weak cold front pushing across the waters on Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely need to be extended into Monday. Additional advisories may be necessary by mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Point, MD
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 150012 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 812 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slides off the southeast coast today, bringing dry and very warm conditions to the local area, along with gusty winds. A backdoor cold front drops through later Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. A stronger cold front crosses the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front just south of the Great Lakes will gradually make it's way southward tonight. Latest CAMS suggest that convection associated with this front over PA will diminish overnight as it moves southward and loses daytime heating. Still, there is a signal from the CAMS that a few leftover sprinkles may make it the the MD eastern shore tonight. As such, will maintain a slight chance for showers tonight in that area. Otherwise, generally clear to mostly clear with temps staying mild in the upper 50s/lower 60s due to steady SW winds of 10-20 mph (with some higher gusts especially in the evening).

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

Attention turns to the severe weather threat for Monday. The cold front just north of the area will move across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours on Monday.
Accompanying this front will be steep mid level lapse rates of 8.0C/km due to an EML originating from the northern plains, with 0- 6km bulk shear values of 35 kt on the southern edge of the strong mid level jet north of the region. The EML feature will keep the atmosphere capped through early afternoon allowing modest MLCAPE values of 500-1000 j/kg as temps rise into the mid 80s. CAMS are in better agreement in showing a line of storms developing along the front by mid afternoon as the cap breaks in central Virginia, then growing upscale into the late afternoon before diminishing by dusk due to loss of daytime heating. Kinematics and thermodynamics certainly suggest severe is possible which is likely why the machine learning probs from CSU and NCAR suggest a slight risk of severe weather. However, the low level flow of W-SW (which extends through the lower troposphere) would suggest limited moisture which will keep coverage to a minimum. With all of this said, there seems to be a conditional risk for severe weather tomorrow meaning that if storms develop, there is a good chance that some of those will become severe. Large hail would likely be the main concern at the onset before becoming more of a wind threat if the clusters become better organized. SPC has placed much of the area in a SLGT risk (level 2 out of 5) on Monday.

Showers and storms may linger across the far south into early Monday evening but should quickly end with loss of daytime heating and due to the front moving south of the area. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night as an other low pressure develops over the plains states. Will go with slight chance PoPs in the afternoon across the southwestern part of the area, spreading across the entire region on Tue night.

Warm day on Monday with areas north of I-64 in the lower 80s and areas south of I-64 in the mid 80s. A little cooler on Tuesday but still above normal in the 70s and lower 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure continues to lift ENE through the upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into the southern states. There will tend to be more clouds Wednesday, though precip chances will be low w/ little forcing (some CHC to slight CHC PoPs will remain over the far N closer to the boundary). Highs in the mid 70s NE, upper 70s for most of VA, and lower 80s far SE VA and NE NC. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite a weak cold front moving through during the day. Will keep chance PoPs through the day simply due to the cold frontal passage occuring during the day. Another (stronger) cold front moves toward the area later Friday and into the weekend into Saturday with a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorm. Some model disagreement with the timing of the front will the GFS showing a Saturday FROPA, while the ECMWF shows a Sunday frontal passage. PoPs remain on the low side as most guidance continues to show the front losing most of its moisture E of the Appalachians. Temps Friday continue to trend cooler but seasonable with 70s for most of the area and perhaps in the 60s on the ern shore. NBM guidance suggests warmer temps on Saturday with the possible delayed frontal passage.
Large spread in the guidance however with temps in the upper 60s/lower 70s N and upper 70s south. Sunday will be the coolest day in the forecast period with temps topping out in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected through the 00z/15 forecast period.
Gusty south to southwest will slowly diminish this evening into early Monday, but remain gusty through around midnight. Due to strong winds aloft and weakening winds near the surface, there will be some wind shear to contend with at the terminals overnight. Quiet on Monday morning but a weakening cold front moves into the area by afternoon. This should trigger some isolated to scattered storms by afternoon with strong wind gusts starting in RIC by mid afternoon then extending SE to PHF ORF and ECG by late afternoon or early evening.

Outlook...There is a lower chance of showers/storms Tue aftn/Tue night. Scattered to Isolated showers persist into Wed, though not expecting flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 225 PM EDT Sunday...

Afternoon analysis shows high pressure to the south across the NE Gulf and Florida vicinity with weak low pressure over eastern Michigan. Winds over the waters are SW 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and rivers, closer to 10-15 kt for the waters S of the the mouth of the bay. Waves are around 2 ft with seas 2-4 ft.

SW winds will continue this afternoon as a weak surface trough to the west enhances the pressure gradient with the high off the SE CONUS. SCA headlines remain in effect for the bay and rivers with the coastal waters north of Parramore Island starting this evening.
Advisories for the upper rivers are forecast to come down at 7pm with the northern bay and lower James zones ending at 10pm. The southern bay and northern coastal waters should drop below SCA thresholds late tonight. Waves will increase a bit through the remainder of the afternoon, generally maxing out in the 2-3 ft range. Seas will build to 4-5 ft for the northern coastal waters through late tonight with 3-4 ft seas for areas to the south. A weakening cold front drops south tomorrow with the potential for some stronger storms along and ahead of the boundary. The main threats with any storms will be locally stronger winds and associated enhanced waves/seas. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and then to the E-SE on Tuesday (staying sub-SCA through this timeframe). Conditions will generally remain sub-SCA for the rest of the week with some potential for seas to build to ~5 ft in the northern coastal waters by Thursday or Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 810 PM EDT Sunday...

Fire Weather SPS has expired and IFD conditions continue to diminish as RH slowly recover.

Higher RH values and weaker wind on Monday. Still, RH values could drop to 30 percent across NE NC Monday afternoon. Virginia and MD RH values will be in the 30-40 percent range along with chances for storms in the afternoon.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-650- 652.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ636- 637.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 12 mi55 min WSW 18G23
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 16 mi55 min SW 14G20 71°F 56°F29.76
NCDV2 17 mi55 min SW 8G11 76°F 61°F29.74
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi55 min SW 16G20 74°F 61°F29.77
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi55 min SE 16G20 74°F 29.77
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi49 min SSW 16G19 65°F 56°F2 ft
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 28 mi43 min SSW 12G14 60°F 55°F2 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi55 min S 17G19 67°F 60°F29.77
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi85 min S 8.9 77°F 29.7145°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi55 min SSW 8G11 70°F 58°F29.78
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi55 min SSW 7G13 76°F 60°F29.73
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi55 min S 16G17 67°F 29.77


Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD 17 sm62 minSSW 1310 smClear75°F45°F34%29.75
KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD 17 sm61 minSSW 14G2210 smClear72°F48°F43%29.76
Link to 5 minute data for K2W6


Wind History from 2W6
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Colton's Point, Maryland
   
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Colton's Point
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Sun -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:44 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:06 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Colton's Point, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.3
3
am
0.6
4
am
1.1
5
am
1.5
6
am
1.9
7
am
2.1
8
am
2.1
9
am
1.9
10
am
1.5
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
1
6
pm
1.4
7
pm
1.7
8
pm
1.8
9
pm
1.8
10
pm
1.5
11
pm
1.1



Tide / Current for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sun -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:09 AM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.26 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:55 PM EDT     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots
12
am
-0.3
1
am
-0.1
2
am
0.2
3
am
0.5
4
am
0.6
5
am
0.5
6
am
0.3
7
am
0
8
am
-0.3
9
am
-0.6
10
am
-0.8
11
am
-0.9
12
pm
-0.9
1
pm
-0.7
2
pm
-0.5
3
pm
-0.2
4
pm
0
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.2
7
pm
0.1
8
pm
-0.1
9
pm
-0.3
10
pm
-0.4
11
pm
-0.5




Weather Map
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