Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Colonial Beach, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A shortwave-trough across the mid MS River Valley early this morning will move across the area this afternoon. Associated to this feature, a surface warm front will lift through the area today with widespread light rain moving in during the next few hours across southwest areas, before spreading across the rest of the area after daybreak. The rain should exit most areas, except perhaps northeast MD, by early afternoon. Some clearing is expected late in the day and during the evening, with areas of low clouds and/or fog redeveloping late tonight/early Tue due to mid-level subsidence, moist/wet soil conditions, and light winds. High temperatures will be about 10 degs cooler than yesterday due to the thick clouds and rain, but still mid to upper 50s, which still is about 10F degs above normal for the date.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

A deepening trough across the central CONUS is fcst to push east Wed before pivoting towards New England Thursday. The trough is fcst to take on a negative tilt Wed night. Strong sfc low development is expected to take place across the mid-South Tue in response to strengthening jet dynamics. As the sfc low lifts northeast, widespread mdt to hvy rain is expected to develop across the area late Tue night through the day Wednesday with the rain changing to snow across the mountains during the afternoon. Model trends indicate the system slowing down some from previous runs with frontal passage coming through the area about six hours later, now 18Z Wed instead of 12Z. The precip shield should be out of the area by 03Z, if not sooner, and it may end as a very brief period of snow across northern MD. A couple of inches of snow accumulation are expected across the mountain with around an inch of rain elsewhere. Turning much colder and brisk Wed night and Thu. Winds may gust as high as 35 mph Wed night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A much colder airmass is expected Thursday, behind the potent front. A few lingering snow showers are possible across the Alleghenies early Thursday before conditions dry out for most of the area. Highs only top out in the teens to low 20s for the Alleghenies and slightly warmer conditions further east with locations near the waters getting into the low 40s Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows Thursday night will drop down into the teens to 20s for most areas. Cannot rule out some of the sheltered valleys out west getting into the single digits.

Temperatures only increase a degree or two on Friday with mostly dry and partly sunny conditions expected. Another gradual warm up on Saturday with increasing clouds throughout the day. Moisture returns to the Alleghenies by Saturday afternoon. A rain-snow mix may develop later Saturday afternoon for the mountains and slowly work further east overnight Sunday into the daytime. Some global guidance suggests the potential for mixed precip early Sunday east of the mountains but west of the I-95 corridor for a short period of time.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with temperature profiles that far out but it will be worth monitoring as the week progresses. A cold rain will likely follow shortly after later Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 40s for most areas east of the Alleghenies.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Light rain will arrive at the terminals after 12Z today, earlier at KCHO. A period of IFR cigs is expected late this morning through early afternoon with the rain, then some clearing late, before low clouds redevelop late tonight into Tue morning.

IFR/LIFR conditions develop once again late Tue through Wed as a widespread soaking arrives. Strong cold front will move through the terminals around 18Z with gusty WNW post-frontal winds expected, particularly in the evening.

VFR conditions are expected Thursday into Friday with winds out of the W-WNW turning more northeasterly by late Friday night. 20 to 25 knot gusts are possible for the terminals during the day on Thursday while remaining dry.

MARINE

Marginal SCA conditions possible today, mainly across the southern waters. Winds diminish this evening and remain light and variable Tue morning. Winds strengthen again Tue afternoon with SCA conditions expected Tue afternoon through Fri morning.
A period of gale conditions is possible late Wed through Wed evening. Have issued a Gale Watch for main Chesapeake Bay channel for the Wed night period.

Gale conditions may be possible early Thursday morning, especially across the lower waters but high end SCA looks more likely. SCA winds likely diminish early Friday and continue to remain below threshold through at least the first half of the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Anamolies will slowly increase by mid-week when some sites may observe minor flood stage Wed PM into Thu AM high tide cycles before diminishing in the wake of a cold front over the waters.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night for ANZ531>534-537-539>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.