Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Colonial Beach, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:52PM Friday February 21, 2020 7:05 PM EST (00:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 4:01PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 636 Pm Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Wed..E winds 5 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely .
ANZ500 636 Pm Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through the weekend. Low pressure will pass through the ohio valley Monday into Tuesday, with a strong cold front poised to cross the waters toward the middle portion of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colonial Beach, VA
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location: 38.25, -76.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 211930 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 230 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the region through the weekend, pushing offshore Sunday night. Low pressure will track into the Ohio Valley late Monday into Tuesday, with another area of low pressure and its associated cold front crossing the region toward the middle portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. An expansive area of high pressure is centered over the Central U.S. with its associated ridge axis stretching across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Vibrant sunshine has helped temperatures rise into the 30s this afternoon, and will likely top out in the middle 30s to near 40 degrees, around 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

As the high continues to nudge its way closer to the area tonight, northerly winds will continue to slacken. With clear skies in place, temperatures will radiate nicely where winds trend light to calm. As a result, we are forecasting low temperatures several degrees below most guidance, generally in the teens everywhere except the city centers, where mid to upper 20s will be realized.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The high will shift eastward and remain centered just to our south through the weekend, weakening in the process, before pushing offshore late Sunday. This will promote winds turning southwesterly on Saturday and southerly on Sunday. Moderating temperatures can be expected as a result, with upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday, warming into the low to middle 50s on Sunday. This is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the second half of February. Seasonably cold conditions Saturday night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s, thanks to the high overhead and mostly clear skies persisting. Not expecting much in the way of cloud cover until the latter half of Sunday and into Sunday night as WAA aloft improves, while conditions remain dry.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. An upper-level ridge will remain over the southeastern CONUS Monday and the ridge axis will extend north toward the Mid-Atlantic during this time. Surface high will remain offshore Monday and a southern stream low pressure system will track through the central CONUS.

A return flow around the surface high and ahead low pressure over the central CONUS will allow for mild conditions. However, clouds will be on the increase ahead of this system and rain may even impact the area, especially late in the day.

The low will track through the Appalachians Monday night and then it will weaken as it moves overhead Tuesday. Warm and moist air will overrun surface cooler air in place, bringing the likelihood for rain Monday night into Tuesday. There may be a break in the rain Tuesday night, but low clouds and fog/drizzle will likely persist.

Stronger low pressure will develop near the Appalachains Wednesday as northern and southern stream energy phase in a deepening trough over the central CONUS. The low will track through our area Wednesday night as it strengthens and the cold front associated with the low will also pass through during this time. More showers are likely ahead of the low Wednesday into Wednesday night. A deeper meridional flow ahead of this system and a strong temperature difference between the airmass overhead and arctic air that will be moving into the north-central CONUS means that the wind field will be strong throughout all levels of the atmosphere. As the trough axis swings toward a neutral and even negative tilt, this will cause low pressure to strengthen nearby. A strong wind field aloft suggests that showers could contain gusty to perhaps locally damaging wind gusts late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Confidence remains low at this time due to limited instability.

As the low moves off to the northeast late Wednesday night and Thursday, further intensification is expected until it becomes vertically stacked. Therefore, a strong pressure gradient will cause gusty west to northwest winds along with much chillier conditions. Upslope snow showers are likely along/west of the Allegheny Front and accumulating snow is possible. Surface high pressure will settle overhead late in the week, bringing lighter winds but cold conditions. Upper-level shortwave energy in the northern stream may bring a chance for snow showers, but confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure will dominate over the terminals through the weekend, resulting in light winds, clear skies, and VFR conditions. Northerly breezes this afternoon will turn light and westerly tonight, backing southwesterly on Saturday and eventually southerly on Sunday, remaining less than 10 knots.

Low pressure will impact the terminals Monday into Tuesday. Rain is likely along with subVFR conditions, especially late Monday into Tuesday. More low clouds and fog/drizzle are possible Tuesday night.

MARINE. Northerly winds have weakened to around 10 to 15 knots on all waters this afternoon, so have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the lower Tidal Potomac and Bay waters south of North Beach. High pressure will preside over the region through the weekend, maintaining a light gradient and sub SCA conditions. Winds will favor a southwesterly trajectory on Saturday, turning more southerly on Sunday as the high begins to migrate offshore.

Low pressure will impact the waters Monday before weakening nearby Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds may approach SCA criteria during this time, but confidence is low.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BKF NEAR TERM . BKF SHORT TERM . BKF LONG TERM . BJL/BKF AVIATION . BJL/BKF MARINE . BJL/BKF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 6 mi71 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 35°F 45°F1031.5 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 24 mi65 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 27 mi65 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 44°F1032 hPa (-0.6)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi71 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 35°F 43°F1032.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 36 mi29 min NNW 5.8 G 9.7 32°F 43°F1032.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi35 min Calm G 0 33°F 1032.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 39 mi155 min NW 5.1 1031 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 43 mi65 min WNW 5.1 G 8 37°F 44°F1032.3 hPa (-0.8)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 49 mi65 min N 2.9 G 5.1 32°F 40°F1032 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD22 mi78 minN 0 miFair32°F12°F44%1032.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K2W6

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3NE3N9
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N6N8NE4N4CalmNE4NE4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N6NE3N3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3W5W3NW3CalmN4NW8N3CalmNW5NW4--NW4N5NW4NW7NW5W5W8W5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Colonial Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:59 AM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:29 PM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:01 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:50 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.31.210.70.3-0-0.2-0.10.20.611.31.51.51.310.60.2-0-0.100.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Fri -- 01:28 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:30 AM EST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:59 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:24 PM EST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:20 PM EST     0.30 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.2-00.20.40.50.50.40.20-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.