Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitehaven, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 930 AM EST Saturday...

- Much colder with light precipitation moving through the region. A wintry mix is expected for areas along and N of I-64 with little to no accumulation of snow/sleet expected.

High pressure (1026mb) is in place overhead early this morning, centered just to the north of the FA. To the south, a stationary boundary cuts across the Carolinas. Aloft, the pattern is nearly zonal over the region, with a WNW flow. Through the day, a weak disturbance passing over the region aloft combined with overrunning moisture will bring precip to the local area. The high to the N will slide offshore as well, but CAD will hold the chilly air in place locally, allowing some wintry mix for northern counties.

Latest obs show the lower 30s N of I-64 and across the Eastern Shore, and the low 40s to the S. Radar shows some light precipitation along and N of I-64 and across the Eastern shore this morning. Some early morning reports from spotters and observations have shown that light sleet and snow have been reported N of I-64 where temperatures a of 910 AM continue to hover just at or slightly above freezing. No major accumulations are expected. The precipitation is expected to move north throughout the day as a warm front located to the south continue to advance. As the precipitation advances north the Maryland Eastern Shore still has the possibility of some light wintry mix across their area. Again with temperatures just at or slightly above freezing no major accumulation is expected. With temperatures still close to freezing and observations still reporting light snow and sleet the Winter Weather Advisory in place for now, but an early cancellation is certainly a possibility. Otherwise, highs today will be in the mid-upper 30s N of US-460 and low 40s to the S under overcast skies.

Non-diurnal temps are expected overnight as a warm front lifts N through the area before a cold front passes through early tomorrow morning. By sunrise tomorrow, temps may be as warm as 60 in the far SE. Elsewhere, temps warm to the mid-40s to mid-50s by morning.
While the cold front passage looks mostly dry, cannot rule out a few widely scattered showers as it passes through late tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer and drier for Sunday

- Another chance for light precip Sunday night into Monday

Sunday looks to be relatively quiet weather-wise. Highs have trended a bit cooler, but still looking at the low 60s in the SE, mid-upper 50s central portions of the area, and upper 40s to around 50 for the Eastern Shore and the northern tier of counties. Winds will be pretty gusty, though, especially near the coast where gusts of 20- 25mph are expected. Lows Sun night will be in the upper 20s to around 30 in the far north, then low-mid 30s elsewhere. A weak system across the S will bring a chance for some light precip late Sun night into Mon. Some light snow or rain/snow mix will be possible across central portions of the area early Monday. Little to no accumulation anticipated with this. Highs on Monday will be in the mid-40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 415 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Active pattern continues into next week with chances for wintry precip Tues into Wed morning.

A rather active stretch of weather is expected for most of the week. The relatively fast/split flow regime slowly transitions to more SWly flow from Monday through midweek, in response to a closed low digging in upstream across the desert southwest and N MX. A broad baroclinic zone looks to develop, with several areas of weak low pressure sliding across it.

Precip chances increase early Tuesday and mostly remain in the likely or definite range through Thursday. CAD keeping the cold air in place with allow for snow for portions of the area. There is still some disagreement in how far south this snow makes it (e.g. 00z GFS is further S than ECMWF). However, looking at the ensemble probs, there is decent confidence in at least a couple of inches across the northern third of the area. The ECMWF ens even has some low-end (20-30%) probs for 6" across the northern tier of counties. Precip should then change over to rain across the area from S to N from Tues afternoon into Wed as temps aloft and at the sfc warm. Then remaining rainy into Thursday, drying out by Fri morning.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1245 PM EST Saturday...

Conditions deteriorate on this afternoon as a disturbance moves across the area. CIGs have lowered to MVFR IFR across all terminals.Across RIC, showers still remain present across the area as a present boundary has set up keeping the heaviest of the rain showers just north of the terminal. However, light showers have reduced visibility across RIC to MVFR conditions and CIGS have lowered to IFR. These conditions are expected to last through the TAF period and into tomorrow morning. There is also the possibility of LIFR CIGS at RIC later this evening however, confidence is to low to put it into the TAF. VFR CIGS are currently present at SBY however, CIGS are expected to lower to MVFR by early to middle afternoon. Rain showers continue to remain south of the terminal but are expected to move north by the middle of the afternoon dropping VIS and CIGS to MVFR conditions. There is a higher possibility of LIFR CIGS at SBY by late this evening. Across ORF, PHF, ECG MVFR CIGS are currently present across these terminals and are expected to drop to IFR by this afternoon and early this evening. Rain showers are expected to stay north of these terminals.

Otherwise, winds remain out of the north between 5 to 10 kt this afternoon and into this evening. Winds are expected to increase by late tonight with winds between 10 to 15 kt and gusts upwards of 20 kts out of the south-southwest. Latest models have shown a potent LLJ forming across the area later this evening between 0z and lasting through 10z. This LLJ is expected to increase to 50 kt around 2000ft across all terminals creating LLWS. LLWS have been added to all TAF sites for this evening and into tomorrow.

Outlook: Multiple periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely through early next week as a series of progressive disturbances move through the region bringing low clouds and precipitation.

MARINE
As of 449 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing onshore flow today may require SCA in southern waters and mouth of the Bay.

- SCA conditions expected Sunday in the northern waters behind a weak cold front, but may extend further south later in the day.

NE flow along has prevailed overnight. The gradient between high pressure to our north and a developing area of low pressure to our south has tightened over the past few hours. This has resulted in an increase in both winds and seas, mainly in the lower Bay and coastal waters off the SE VA and NE NC. Sea heights have gradually crept up to 3-4 ft in the coastal waters off NC and to 2-3 ft in the mouth of the Bay out into the ocean. Wind speeds are being measured around 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 15 to 20 kts in these areas. If winds and seas increase further in this morning, a SCA may be required.
Elsewhere, winds are at or below 10 kts.

Another area of low pressure will quickly progress northeastward from the southern Plains this morning to Northeast today through tomorrow, dragging a cold front through the area on Sunday morning.
As this low ejects out into the western North Atlantic Sunday morning, SCA conditions are expected for at least northern coastal waters and northern Bay, but may extend further south in the afternoon. A SCA is in effect from 12Z-21Z tomorrow for these waters,, but may need to be expanded southward by the afternoon package. Thereafter, high pressure will build across the region and benign marine conditions are expected through Monday night. The progressive weather pattern will continue and Tuesday will see increasing winds as the gradient tightens between another developing low to the south and the aforementioned high to our N to NE. SCA conditions are possible Tuesday through the end of the week due to a combination of winds and onshore flow helping to build up seas.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ048- 509-510.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ630- 631-650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ658.