Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nanticoke Acres, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 205 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool today and tonight.

Latest weather analysis reveals ~1020mb sfc high pressure centered over along the SE coast. To the northwest, surface low pressure continues to slide across Lake Superior toward upper MI and S Ontario. This system is associated with a broader upper level trough that is digging from the Canadian Prairies across the upper midwest.

19z temperatures were on par with those of yesterday, averaging in the upper 30s to low 40s with full sunshine. Expect temps to fall back into the mid 20s to ~30 by midnight. Clear and cold overnight, with additional isolated patches of black ice possible yet again, mainly on shaded secondary or neighborhood/back roads.
Early morning lows mainly into the upper teens to the low and mid 20s with light winds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 205 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A modest warmup for Monday with highs mainly in the 40s.

- A cold front crosses the area late Monday and crosses the region on Tuesday. Breezy conditions and a return to well below normal temperatures is then expected through midweek.

Monday will be the warmest day we've had in a while with light westerly/downslope winds allowing temps to rise into the mid and upper 40s. A pair of shortwaves will pass by the region, one to our north associated with the Great Lakes system, the other with a weakening southern stream disturbance. Look for downslope winds to keep the area mainly sunny, with milder highs mainly in the 40s under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

The low pressure near the Great Lakes will weaken over New England Monday night, sending its strong/dry sfc cold front toward the area into Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will once again be in the teens to low 20s with clear skies and light winds allowing for good radiating conditions.

Some improvement, but still a mixed signal from the 12z/12 deterministic models in just how fast cooler air will filter into the region behind the (dry) cold front on Tuesday. Given that the 1038+mb sfc high of Arctic origin remains over the central plains on Tuesday, would not expect the strong pressure falls and strong CAA to occur immediately post-frontal, and the 12z models have at least edged in a less cold direction for Tuesday, with the true CAA spilling into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Did therefore nudge highs upward about a category toward NBM numbers, which are roughly equivalent to the expected highs from thickness anyway. This yields highs in the low to mid 30s over the Lower Eastern Shore, mid 30s to ~40 for most, and lower 40s for NC. NW winds become gusty by Tuesday afternoon, especially near the coast, knocking wind chills into the 20s by sunset. Temps then plummet through the overnight with lows in the low/mid teens expected. Temps won't fall quite as low as they otherwise would, as winds also stay up overnight.
However, the combo of strong CAA and gusty NW winds result in wind chill values in the single digits over the vast majority of the area Wed morning. Cold Weather Advisories are looking increasingly likely area-wide Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 205 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry to start, with temperatures gradually moderating for the late week period into next weekend.

- Next chance for precipitation arrives late on Saturday into Sunday.

Cold and dry for the beginning of the long term, with a short- lived warmup late this week into next weekend. High pressure over the plains will cut off any increase in PW through at least the end of the upcoming work week. However, it will also advect very cold air of Arctic origin in our direction for the midweek period. Coldest day of the upcoming forecast period still looks to be Wednesday, with high temps likely struggling to breach the freezing mark across the northern half of the area. It will also stay quite breezy with wind chills in the teens and 20s.
Very cold Wednesday night with decreasing winds, lows in the upper single digits to around 10 degrees above N and NW of Richmond with low to mid teens for remaining inland areas. Lows around 20 near the coast Wednesday night. Additional Cold Weather Advisories are possible overnight into Thu morning.

Gradual moderation of temperatures then occurs from Thu into next weekend. A few degrees warmer on Thursday with highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows overnight in the upper teens to low/mid 20s from N to S. Warming continues Friday with highs in the 40s across the area. Not as cold overnight with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Models are a bit slower with increasing moisture on the back side of the departing high. Ensemble guidance still shows a slight chance PoPs into the region early Saturday morning. If this were to come to pass, it could lead to ostensibly lead to some mixed p-type concerns at the onset with dry low level air in place. However, we continue to suspect the blended solution is a bit fast with moving the precip into the area, so not terribly concerned about widespread winter weather issues. Held rain chances off until Sat aftn and night, holding PoPs in slight to low end chance range for now. Temps warm quickly on Saturday with highs across the southern half of the area in the low/mid 50s and mid to upper 40s for the N with southerly winds. Looking ahead, another cold front looks to approach the region late Saturday night and Sunday. This likely portends another window of strong Arctic air pushing east and creeping back into the regional weather picture as we cross into the last week of January.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 625 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/13 TAF period. Skies will generally be clear through the period with the exception of a few high clouds at SBY and ECG. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then SW at 5-10kt tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through midweek. A dry cold front brings another period with elevated W-NW winds late Monday night through Wednesday, generally highest across the MD eastern shore.

MARINE
As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale watches posted for Tue night into Wed morning behind an Arctic cold front.

Generally tranquil conditions across the waters this afternoon with a high pressure ridge overhead. Winds gradually coming around to the SW at 10 kt tonight. The first of the series of fronts will pass through the area late Mon/Mon night. This will allow the winds to shift W or NW to around 15 kt. A small craft advisory may be needed for the bay Mon night into Tuesday.

The stronger Arctic front passes across the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will allow the winds to turn NW and rapidly increase due to the strong surge behind the front combined with a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure deepens off the New England coast. Numerical guidance coming into good agreement of sustained winds close to 30 kt across much of the waters Tue night into Wed AM. This, combined with local wind probabilities indicating a greater than 60% chance of 34 kt gusts (near 100% over the ocean)
will lead to a Gale Watch being issued for Tue night into Wed morning. Due to the very strong cold advection as well as the deep mixed layer developing Tue night, we could see some gusts to 40 kt, however, 950 mb winds to not support gusts much in excess of this at this time.

NW winds gradually subside through Thursday, although there will be a period of small craft advisory type winds through Wed night. The ridge builds in across the waters by Thu allowing winds to shift to W or SW.

Seas subsiding to 1 to 3 ft tonight into Monday under the ridge, then building to 2 to 4 ft then 3 to 5 ft behind the first front Tue night into Wed morning (1 to 3 ft waves in the bay). Ocean waves then build to 4 to 7 feet Tue night into Wed (3 to 5 feet in the bay) before subsiding to 1 to 3 ft by Thursday as the next ridge builds overhead.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

Water levels in the Currituck Sound continue to be below -1' MLLW.
As such, have extended the low water advisory until 4 am Monday.
Guidance suggesting that the strong NW winds developing Tue night may allow water levels to drop below 0' MLLW Wednesday in the Chesapeake Bay.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633.