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Marine Weather and Tides Fishing Creek, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 5:50AM

Sunset 8:26PM

Wednesday July 17, 2019 6:48 AM EDT (10:48 UTC)

Moonrise 8:14PM

Moonset 5:25AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishing Creek CDP, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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Fxus61 klwx 170859 afdlwx area forecast discussion national weather service baltimore md washington dc 459 am edt Wed jul 17 2019 Synopsis The remnants of barry will move eastward across pennsylvania through tonight, then slowly drift into the western atlantic on Thursday. High pressure will build over the southeastern united states Friday through the weekend. A cold front will approach from the great lakes and pennsylvania early next week. Near term through tonight Today is expected to be a few degrees hotter than yesterday. 850 925 hpa temperatures are progged to have risen about 1-2 c from 24 hours ago, hence the expectation of hotter surface temperatures. There is just a pinch more wind (albeit pretty light) out of the southwest, and that may help dew points drop to around 70 or into the lower 70s, instead of holding in the mid 70s (where they are starting out this morning). The combination of heat and humidity is expected to result in heat indices of around 105 in the i-95 corridor, where a heat advisory remains in effect. Further west, heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 are expected, just shy of headline criteria but still hot nonetheless. As the remnant circulation of barry drifts into pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, a surface pressure trough is expected to sharpen out ahead of it over the mid-atlantic. Given the hot, humid and unstable airmass in place, this should be enough to initiate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, congealing into loosely organized clusters (thanks to modest mid-level flow approaching 30 kts), then pushing eastward this evening. A (very) weak cold front is expected to drop out of pennsylvania this evening, and this may provide additional focus across northern northeastern maryland. Given high humidity, heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorm. See hydro section below for the heavy rain threat. Thunderstorms may also tap into mid-level flow and become organized enough to produce isolated damaging downburst winds later this afternoon into this evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity should diminish after midnight with the loss of heating and as better forcing scoots off toward the northeast. Short term Thursday through Friday night More cloud cover is expected Thursday as a surface front tailing behind barry's remnants slowly drops into the area and weakens. This should lead to earlier initiation of showers and a few thunderstorms, albeit less widespread than Wednesday given expected weaker forcing and slowly lower temps humidity. Heat indices may approach 100 on Thursday, but current expectation is that they will largely fall just shy of criteria (which is 100 west of the blue ridge and 105 east of the blue ridge). Low-level airmass warms appreciably on Friday. 850 925 hpa temps of 25 30 c respectively still look likely, which would result in surface temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100. This combined with humid air in place (dew points likely mixing into the upper 60s to around 70) would result in heat indices of 100 to 110 during the afternoon hours. Excessive heat watches may be needed for Friday into the weekend by later today or tonight, especially given the prolonged nature of the threat of dangerous heat. Of note, the heat index in urban areas (i.E. Dc baltimore) may not drop below 90 at night with high dew point air pooling near the tidal potomac river baltimore inner harbor and ambient air temperatures holding in the lower 80s through the night. All of these factors point to a potentially dangerous heat event Friday through the upcoming weekend. Long term Saturday through Tuesday Our prolonged stretch of hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Conditions will turn more active early next week, leading up to an eventual break from the heat and humidity by the middle of next week. On Saturday, an extensive, zonally elongated ridge will be in place across much of the conus. An extremely hot and humid airmass will be in place beneath the ridge, with much of the eastern two- thirds of the CONUS experiencing well above normal temperatures. Locally, a weak anticyclone at 500 hpa embedded within the larger ridge will become centered nearly overhead. Subsidence in the vicinity of this feature should limit coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out in response to daytime heating, especially over the higher terrain. The main story weatherwise will be the heat. 850 hpa temps are forecast to soar to 23-25 c by Saturday afternoon, which should translate to high temperatures around or possibly just above 100 degrees for lower elevation locations. Conditions will also be humid, with dewpoints around 70. This will lead to heat indices potentially approaching or exceeding 110. Heat advisories or excessive heat warnings will likely be needed for much of the area. The ridge will begin to buckle a bit on Sunday to our north, but we'll still be entrenched well within the core of the hot and humid air. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100, with dewpoints once again around 70. As a result, heat advisories or excessive heat warnings will likely be needed once again. With slight height falls as the ridge starts to weaken, coverage of afternoon thunderstorms may be slightly higher compared to Saturday. However, overall coverage is expected to remain low, and predominantly confined to higher elevation areas or along the bay breeze. On Monday, a fairly impressive trough by late july standards will dig southward across eastern portions of the conus, driving a cold front southward toward our area. In advance of the approaching trough and it's associated cold front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon. With ample instability in place ahead of the front, and 20-35 knots of 0-6 km shear in association with the approaching trough, some of the storms could be on the stronger side. With precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches, any storms that form could produce very heavy rainfall as

well, potentially leading to a threat for flash flooding. Tuesday's weather will be dependent on the southward progression of the aforementioned surface front. Although it's likely that the wind shift and thermal boundary (what many would call the front) will be situated to our south, dry advection will still be ongoing well to the north of the wind shift. It's possible that the "front" is to our south, but we still have moisture rich air in place (dewpoints around 70). However it's also possible that the front drives further south, allowing the drier air to work in at the surface. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible where the moisture rich air is still in place. As a result the highest chances for storms will reside further to the south, where they'll be situated closer to the front. By the middle of next week much cooler and drier air is expected to work into the region. Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday MainlyVFR expected through midday. Shower and thunderstorm development is likely, but specific time place of restrictions is tough beyond a few hours with thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm will likely drop conditions to ifr or possibly lower given humid airmass and heavy rain potential. Gusty winds are possible in and near thunderstorms, as well as frequent lightning. Patchy fog is possible tonight, especially in areas that receive heavier rain this afternoon and evening, but the threat should be tempered by the presence of mid level cloud cover. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible again Thursday, though should be less widespread. Winds today through Thursday will generally be SW AOB 10 kts, except this afternoon when a few gusts to near 20 kts are possible, higher in stronger thunderstorm clusters. MainlyVFR but very hot and humid Friday. PrevailingVFR conditions are expected this weekend. However, brief reductions to sub-vfr conditions will be possible in association with any thunderstorms that move over the terminals. Marine Sca later this afternoon into this evening with tightening sw gradient. Synoptically marginal, but convection outflow will enhance gusts during this time. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions expected through Friday. Sub-sca level winds are expected on in light southerly flow this weekend. Thunderstorms will be possible over the waters each afternoon this weekend. Special marine warnings may be needed for any of the stronger storms that move over the waters. Hydrology High pwats near 2 inches and deep warm cloud layer depths will contribute to a heavy rain threat. Storm motions should be quick enough to preclude a more widespread flash flood risk, but mid level flow roughly parallel to a southward dropping front this evening may enhance the threat somewhat over northern and northeastern maryland. Tides coastal flooding Tides are running a bit above normal, and with general southerly flow over the next 24 to 36 hours, this trend should continue. Though elevated, tides should remain below minor thresholds. Climate As of 4:40 this morning, the temperature at washington dulles international airport (iad) had so far only dropped to 77 degrees. The record daily warm low temperature for july 17th is 75 degrees, set back in 1988. The record daily warm low temperature for iad for july 18th is 74 degrees, set in 2005 and 1969. As a reference, here are the warm temperature records for Friday through this weekend: record daily high temperatures jul 19 jul 20 jul 21 dca 102 (1930) 106 (1930) 104 (1926) bwi 103 (1930) 102 (1930) 104 (1930) iad 98 (1977) 101 (1980) 101 (1991) record daily warm low temperatures jul 19 jul 20 jul 21 dca 81 (1930) 82 (2015) 82 (1987) bwi 80 (1942) 80 (1930) 83 (1930) iad 77 (2013) 75 (2015) 77 (1987) highest july temperatures highest MAX warmest low dca 106 (7 20 1930) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983) bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (7 21 1930) iad 105 (7 22 2011) 78 (7 24 2010, 7 8 2010) all-time highest temperatures highest MAX warmest low dca 106 (7 20 1930, 8 6 1918) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983) bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (8 5 1930, 7 21 1930, 6 6 1925) iad 105 (7 22 2011) 79 (8 8 2007) Lwx watches warnings advisories Dc... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening for dcz001. Md... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening for mdz011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508. Va... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening for vaz052>057. Wv... None. Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to midnight edt tonight for anz530>543. Synopsis... Dhof near term... Dhof short term... Dhof long term... Kjp aviation... Dhof kjp marine... Dhof kjp hydrology... Dhof tides coastal flooding... Dhof climate... Dhof

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD	11 mi	54 min	SW 13 G 15	82°F	84°F		1016.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD	12 mi	54 min	SW 13 G 16	78°F			1016.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	12 mi	54 min	SW 4.1 G 5.1	78°F	84°F		1015.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	19 mi	54 min	SW 5.1 G 6
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD	22 mi	66 min	SW 7.8 G 9.7	79°F			1016.6 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD	23 mi	54 min		80°F	85°F		1015.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	23 mi	54 min	SW 8.9 G 11	77°F	85°F		1016.2 hPa
NCDV2	43 mi	54 min	S 1.9 G 2.9	77°F	87°F		1015.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	45 mi	48 min	S 9.9 G 11	80°F	82°F		1016.5 hPa (-0.0)	74°F
44063 - Annapolis	49 mi	36 min	SW 3.9 G 5.8	79°F	82°F		1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD	9 mi	56 min	Var 4	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	78°F	75°F	93%	1016.1 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD	14 mi	55 min	SSW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	81°F	73°F	77%	1015.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD	17 mi	65 min	SSW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	71°F	89%	1016.6 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD	21 mi	63 min	Var 3	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	75°F	89%	1015.9 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Hooper Island Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.