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FXUS63 KLMK 110532 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1232 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Updated Aviation Discussion

Forecast Update
Issued at 951 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

The back edge of a large area of stratus continues to push eastward across the region this evening. While clearing has been progressive over the past several hours, the forward movement of this clearing line may slow down a bit overnight.

At the time of this writing a patch of very light precipitation is moving southward through central Indiana. There have been observations of very light freezing drizzle and snow grains in Indianapolis, though the precipitation has been too light and ground temperatures too warm to lead to any problems there. As this area of precipitation pushes to the SSE it may drift through southeast Indiana and into the Kentucky Blue Grass overnight. Looking at sounding progs, by the time it gets here it should mostly be in the form of small flurries or snow grains given expected air temperatures from the surface to the top of the cloud-bearing layer, and any precipitation will be very light given a very shallow depth of the cloud deck. Have expanded flurry chances in the grids to extend them into southeast Indiana and to continue them a bit deeper into the pre- dawn hours before ending.

Short Term
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

============================================================= Key Messages:

* Below normal temperatures continue into Monday

=============================================================

Temperatures haven't budged much from morning lows as strong cold air advection continues across the region and cloudy skies have limited solar insolation. Steady northwest winds have kept the wind chills in the 30s most of the day, though these should begin to taper down as we head into the overnight period.

Some uncertainty remains in how long the stratus will persist overnight, which will have some impacts on AM lows tomorrow morning.
While the ~19z satellite imagery shows the back end of the stratus just pushing past the IL/MO border into far western Kentucky, surface high pressure and ridging over the southern Plains will drift toward the region and slightly veer the low level flow over southern IN and central KY. This in turn will keep low level moisture and stratus in place likely for a good portion of the overnight hours, though the western end of the CWA is likely to see some breaks as drier air mixes in. There is still potential for a few flurries, mainly in our eastern CWA, toward the I-75 corridor, though the main model showing it (HRRR) tends to be aggressive with convectively generated precip in steep lapse rates environments, so confidence on a few snowflakes flying isn't all that high.

Clouds should gradually break up tomorrow morning and afternoon as surface high pressure slides toward the Appalachians and flow takes a more southerly turn. Temperatures will still be on the cool side of climatology, as highs only rise into the low/mid 40s, but the sunshine and lighter winds should make it a bit more manageable vs the conditions we're dealing with today.

Long Term
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

================================================================ Key Messages

- Dry and near-normal temperatures most of next week

- Low confidence chance for light rain next weekend

================================================================

Monday night and Tuesday will see a surface high centered over the Appalachian Mountains with weakly amplified northwest flow to zonal flow above. This will keep skies clear and light WAA over the Lower Ohio Valley. Early morning lows between 25 to 30 are expected to warm to high temperatures in the low 50s, which is around 5 degrees above normal.

Tuesday night will see the passage of a weak dry cold front. This will likely bring a thick layer of mid to high level clouds through southern Indiana and central Kentucky, but the region will remain dry. CAA behind the front will suppress temperatures to near normal highs on Wednesday and Thursday. Upper ridging and surface high pressure should cause skies to clear by Thursday. Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night will likely drop into the low 20s over parts of the northern half of the CWA.

By Friday, as surface high pressure pushes southeast, away from the CWA, return flow will warm temperatures into the low to mid 50s.
Slowly the mid 50s from southern Kentucky will work northward towards southern Indiana and northern Kentucky into the weekend.

Currently have a low chance of precipitation working into the region this weekend, but confidence remains low as a low pressure system slowly moves over the south central part of the country late in the work week as the main flow remaining far north over Canada. There's also a chance a quick moving low could develop and drop south on northwest flow into the our region, so at this time, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the weekend with drier weather currently more likely.

Aviation
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Cigs overnight look to remain MVFR at HNB/SDF/LEX as a low, but thin layer of stratus continues to move through the region. BWG looks to have cleared out and should remain VFR overnight. Winds overnight will be northwest at 2-4kts.

Surface high pressure will build into the region later this morning with cigs increasing back to VFR with clouds scouring out through the afternoon hours. Winds will remain light through the day to day with direction shifting from the NW to the SW. The outlook for tonight and into Tuesday calls for VFR conditions.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
KY...None.

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