Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fredericksburg, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:35PM Saturday June 12, 2021 9:47 AM EDT (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 738 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Today..NE winds 10 kt...becoming 5 to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 738 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly return by this afternoon. A series of cold fronts will then cross the region late Sunday through early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredericksburg, VA
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location: 38.3, -77.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 121316 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 916 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will build into the area by this afternoon. A cold front will approach Sunday before crossing the region late Sunday night into early Monday resulting in renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. A second cold front is expected to cross the region late Monday night into early Tuesday, and a third cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will resume control for a few days thereafter coupled with cooler temperatures and lower humidity.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Latest surface analysis shows yesterday's stationary boundary well to our south as low pressure continues to shift out to sea. Some low clouds, patchy fog, and mist still linger across the region this morning given the abundance of moisture received over the last two days. However with a northerly wind being slightly faster than what overnight guidance was indicating, think that we will start to see some partial sunshine sooner than later as clearing ensues from north to south.

A mix of sun and clouds is expected for the remainder of the afternoon with light winds out of the north. For now, temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s; slightly below normal for June standards. However depending on the amount of sunshine that arises this afternoon, may need to raise temperatures a few degrees.

A weak boundary will push southward out of PA late today. Some of the hi-res guidance indicated pop-up showers for late this afternoon/evening across the PA/MD border. However with dry mid levels, weak instability, and weak forcing believe it will remain dry overnight into Sunday morning under a fair sky. Overnight lows expected to drop into the low to mid 60s across the region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. . PREVIOUS DISCUSSION . Warm air will begin to push back northeastward into the region Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will cross the region late Sunday night into early Monday. Very quickly on its heels another cold front will move into the region Monday night.

With warm advection Sunday, highs should rebound well into the 80s. Instability will build, with significant CAPE potential by late afternoon. As the cold front approaches, this may help spawn a squall line to our northwest, which will then move into our region near or after sunset. Enough CAPE and shear are present to result in a marginal severe weather outlook across our region, especially northwest of I-95. The main threat will be damaging winds.

Showers may linger through Sunday night, with lows in the 60s. The front will be slow to clear the area Monday morning, and we could even still have a few showers around at dawn. The sun should break through for a time thereafter, but a stronger front and upper trough will then approach late Monday into Monday night, potentially accompanied by a wave of low pressure. This will result in another risk of showers and thunderstorms Monday night. Between the two fronts, highs will warm well into the 80s, providing some more fuel for said showers/storms.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. With a surface cold front to the southeast on Tuesday, a mid- level trough of low pressure will pivot across the region. A chance for a couple of showers or perhaps a thunderstorm will exist Tuesday into Tuesday evening before another cold front moves through.

High pressure will build in Wednesday through Friday, bringing dry and seasonable temperatures each day. Temperatures could climb to near 90 degrees on Friday in most areas.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. IFR to MVFR conditions with upslope easterly moist flow persisting early this morning. Expect conditions to break with VFR becoming widespread by late afternoon. Patchy fog could then redevelop late tonight with VFR returning by midday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with a cold frontal passage late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Drying Monday with VFR before another cold front threatens to bring a few more showers and storms Monday night.

VFR conditions Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds northwest 5 to 10 knots few higher gusts through the period.

MARINE. Easterly flow will remain at marginal SCA levels through early afternoon across the middle bay and adjacent waterways. Thereafter, expect mostly sub-SCA winds through the next few days, despite several weak cold frontal passages. However, a few gusty thunderstorms could affect the waters with said frontal passages, particularly Sunday evening.

No marine hazards expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. Winds northwest around 10 knots.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Easterly flow has helped build water levels at the mouth of the bay which have translated northward up the bay. Minor flooding is now expected at most sites through the next day or so. The return of northwest flow behind a series of cold fronts should allow water levels to start subsiding early next week.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ011. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017. VA . Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ054. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ534- 537-543.

SYNOPSIS . MSS/RCM NEAR TERM . MSS/RCM SHORT TERM . RCM LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . RCM/KLW MARINE . RCM/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 22 mi48 min N 1.9 G 6 65°F 76°F1009.3 hPa (+1.4)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 46 mi48 min N 2.9 G 7 67°F 80°F1010.7 hPa (+1.4)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 50 mi48 min N 9.9 G 12
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 51 mi78 min NE 1.9 61°F 1009 hPa60°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA2 mi73 minN 710.00 miOvercast65°F64°F95%1009.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA7 mi93 minN 87.00 miOvercast65°F62°F88%1011.2 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA17 mi52 minN 96.00 miOvercast with Haze67°F62°F84%1010.7 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA24 mi53 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast65°F62°F91%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEZF

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4E8E6NE5E7E8NE4NE7NE3N4N4NE5N3N5N3N3N7N6N6N6N7N6
1 day agoCalmCalmE3S4S6N4N3SE8E7E4E6E6E5E5NE3E4E4SE3E5E7SE3SE3E3Calm
2 days agoN6N4N4N7N6N5NW6NW5W6CalmNW4CalmE7S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:05 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:51 PM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.30.80.60.60.91.62.53.13.33.22.82.21.61.10.70.50.40.81.62.32.72.82.6

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:06 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:35 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:21 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.410.70.50.61.11.92.733.12.82.31.81.30.90.50.40.51.11.82.42.62.62.3

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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