Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stanardsville, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:03PM Monday August 19, 2019 10:52 PM EDT (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:26PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1036 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms late this evening, then a slight chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the atlantic will deliver a light southerly flow over the region through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stanardsville, VA
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location: 38.31, -78.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 200129
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
929 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Hot and humid conditions will persist through
Thursday with daily chances of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night
with canadian high pressure building in for the weekend,

Near term through Tuesday
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still lingering around
our area mainly developing due to outflow boundaries and
terrain. Expecting thunderstorms activity to continue to
diminish in the next few hours.

Some fog could again develop over the valleys tonight where
skies clear enough. Other than that, warm and muggy tonight
with low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
Hot and humid conditions will persist through mid week until
cdfnt clears the fcst area late Thu or Thu night. Expect more
of the same with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon with
wed being the more active day with a shortwave-trough passing by
and more significant height falls. Fcst storm motions are not
expected to be particularly very fast, so storms may produce
heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding in
addition to damaging winds and hail. Heat indices may approach
the heat advisory criteria of 105f east of the blue ridge both
tue and wed.

Long term Thursday through Monday
On Thursday, a cold front will approach the area from the ohio
valley. This front will bring some much needed relief from the heat
into the weekend. On Thursday however, with the front coming through
in the afternoon, high temperatures probably still reach the upper
80s to low 90s. With dew points in the low 70s too, this will lead
to heat indices into the mid to upper 90s, with a few spots
approaching 100 in southern md central va. The cold front moving
into this environment will certainly result in some thunderstorms
across the region, as evident by likely pops Thursday afternoon.

Thunderstorms that do form along the front will have 1000-2000 j kg
of CAPE and around 30kts of deep layer shear to work with. This will
mean a threat for severe weather, with damaging winds and large hail
being the expected threats. A lot will depend on how quickly the
front moves through the area. Obviously, if the front comes through
earlier than anticipated, severe threat would be more limited. So,
will have to monitor over the coming days for tends in the speed of
the front.

Models are not very sure at all where the front GOES after Thursday.

The ECMWF hangs the front up near the forecast area on Friday, with
norther parts of the area likely being behind the front, and areas
farther south still being in warmer and more humid air. However, the
gfs pushes the front out to sea very quickly Thursday night into
Friday, resulting in a dry and cooler than average day area-wide.

Eps ensembles show some support of both solutions honestly, with the
mean hanging the front up in central va through Saturday.

Temperatures across the area will heavily depend on where that front
ends up on Friday, with some areas in likely barely in the low 80s,
and others closer to the upper 80s farther south. Carrying chance
pops through Friday at least, with best chances farther south. With
a stalled front over the area, and a warm and humid airmass to the
south, can't rule out an isolated flooding threat as well,
especially if storms train along the frontal boundary.

Rain chances decrease into Saturday, but could still see some in
southern areas. Even the ECMWF clears the front from the area by
Saturday afternoon, so expecting a dry afternoon at the very least.

But could not rule out a showers or storms, especially down south,
if the front is stubborn to leave. Temperatures on Saturday will be
in the low 80s, and with dew points in the low 60s, it will feel
much less humid.

By Sunday, model guidance all agrees that the front will be long
gone. Surface high pressure will be set up to our northeast. Dry
conditions expected Sunday, with highs into the mid 80s or so.

Again, low dew points will make it feel very comfortable out.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
Isolated thunderstorms are moving in the vicinity of iad at
this moment but expecting activity to diminish in the next hours
to allow forVFR conditions.

Some fog may develop later tonight over cho and mrb, maybe iad
as well. Sct showers t-storms expected over all terminals
Tuesday into Wednesday with boundary over our area.

Thunderstorms are expected on Thursday afternoon, in association
with a passing cold front. These storms may produce strong winds and
some hail. Coverage seems to be pretty high, so all terminals face
the risk of restrictions during storms. Other than that,VFR
conditions are expected for the rest of the day.

More showers and storms possible on Friday, as the cold front could
hang up over the region, with the best chance of coverage near cho.

Could see some lower CIGS down near the front, as well as showers
and storms.

Marine
Sct shower t-storms expected today through fri. Winds and waves
higher near t-storms. SCA conditions possible Wed through thu
night.

Generally expecting winds to remain below SCA criteria on Thursday
and Friday. Though the central bay and lower tidal potomac may get
close each afternoon. Additionally, there is a threat for showers and
thunderstorms for all waters on Thursday, with potentially severe
wind gusts. So special marine warnings may be needed. For Friday,
the threat for showers and storms will really be more confined to
the central bay and lower tidal potomac.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Imr lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Cjl
aviation... Imr lfr cjl
marine... Lfr cjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 83 mi59 min S 1.9 G 4.1 87°F 84°F1016.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 95 mi143 min W 1 79°F 1015 hPa76°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA12 mi2 hrsN 09.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1016.5 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA19 mi78 minWSW 510.00 miFair75°F68°F78%1016.9 hPa
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA24 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair73°F68°F87%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHO

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm------Calm----CalmS33--3--Calm3--E4--E5NW11
G25
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1 day agoS4CalmSW4CalmCalm--SW3N5N5Calm----S3CalmS4S4S7S9S8S6--NW7SE4Calm
2 days agoCalm------CalmCalm--CalmW3Calm--3SE3--NW3--CalmSW4S5----S4S4S9

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:12 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.11.510.70.60.71.32.12.83.13.12.72.21.510.60.40.511.82.63.13.1

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:16 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:36 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.30.90.60.50.611.82.52.72.72.41.91.40.90.50.40.40.81.52.32.72.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.