Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stanardsville, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 802 Pm Edt Wed Aug 5 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Isolated showers and tstms early this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 802 Pm Edt Wed Aug 5 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A stationary boundary will linger near the region through Friday. This will result in chances for showers and Thunderstorms each day during the late afternoon and evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stanardsville, VA
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location: 38.31, -78.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 051850 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front stalled just to the south of the region today will begin to slowly push back north across the region through the end of the week. Brief high pressure builds in for the first half of the weekend, before unsettled conditions return later Sunday into the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A weak frontal boundary has pushed south of the region and is draped across the Delmarva Peninsula, then down along the NC/VA border. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is pushing into the Ohio Valley. Aloft, a closed upper low remains over Quebec/Ontario, with a trough extending down into the Ohio Valley.

With the stationary boundary lingering just south of the forecast area, much of the area remains dry for much of the afternoon. With high temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s most of the day, it will feel relatively comfortable as well.

Later this afternoon into this evening, could see some showers and storms fire in our southwest zones over central VA along a weak pressure trough related to the higher terrain. Otherwise, a very weak day in terms of forcing. Think we are too dry over northern VA, northern/central MD, and DC (see the 12z IAD RAOB, which depicts substantial dry air above 600mb). Either way, not seeing much of a severe threat, as the best mid-upper level flow is off to the north and east. There will be CAPE in the neighborhood of 1000-1500 J/kg to work with, but this will likely result in just some heavier showers, and perhaps a few weaker thunderstorms.

Things get a little interesting overnight, as most hi-res guidance brings a weak piece of upper-level energy across the region, while the aforementioned frontal boundary begins to drift northward. This should result in a greater risk of showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms spreading north across most of the region overnight, and especially early Thursday morning. Lows will be in the 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The boundary will continue to lift northward throughout the day on Thursday, and likely stall somewhere over central VA into southern MD. With upper-level energy approaching from the west, and the surface frontogenesis over the area, showers and storms are likely on Thursday afternoon evening near/along this frontal boundary. Moist air will be funneling back into the region south of this boundary, and given the orientation of the frontal boundary compared to the mid-upper level flow, flooding could become an issue (more on that in the hydrology section below).

The weak frontal boundary will continue slowly migrating northward Thursday night through Friday night as it gradually falls apart. However, a shortwave will be moving overhead. Thus, despite the diminished surface forcing, the increased upper level support should result in more showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. The risk of clouds and rain will continue to keep temps lower, with highs in the low-mid 80s overall. Despite the cooler temps, dew points in the lower 70s will make it feel quite humid. The high moisture content will continue to result in a risk of isolated flooding from thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A stalled boundary that has been near the area starts to shift southeastward away from the region on Saturday. A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible on Saturday but the main threat area should be focused over central Virginia and southern Maryland closer to the boundary. The front should finally shift away from our area by Sunday and high pressure brief builds over our region. A westerly flow aloft combined with a weak northerly flow at the surface should help limit temperatures this weekend to the mid to upper 80s with over night lows in the 60s and lower 70s.

Another boundary is forecast to move into our area and stall during the early parts of next week. Multiple shortwaves will lead to continued chances for showers and thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday. A westerly flow aloft may limit the coverage of storms as dry air gets pulled into the system. Temperatures should trend upwards into the lower 90s as we remain mainly on the warm side of the boundary.

V

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR for the rest of today at all terminals. Showers and storms possible at CHO later this afternoon/evening. Tried to narrow down a timeframe there in the latest TAFs. Could see brief restrictions if a storm passes over the terminal. Outside of CHO though, think all others remain dry.

Low clouds associated with a slow moving frontal boundary could cause some restrictions Thursday into Friday. Think things stay low end VFR in terms of CIGs, but could briefly dip into MVFR at times at all terminals. Additionally, morning fog possible each morning, associated with moisture from recent rains. CHO would be the best candidate for this.

VFR conditions expected this weekend and into early next week but showers and thunderstorms may cause brief periods of restrictions.

MARINE. Light winds expected through Friday, outside of gusty winds in thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Today should remain dry over the waters, as showers and storms should be limited to the higher elevations. However, can't completely rule out a rogue storm over the lower Potomac into the central Bay.

Greatest chance for showers and storms is Thursday and Friday, as the frontal boundary to our south today slowly pushes northward, and an upper trough moves overhead into Friday.

No Small Craft Advisories expected at this time for this weekend.

HYDROLOGY. Thursday afternoon and evening are growing a bit more concerning over central/southern MD and northeast VA, mainly southeast of I-95. Several things of note for Thursday afternoon. First, a stalled /slow-moving boundary will be situated over central VA/southern MD. This boundary will be roughly parallel to the WSW mid-upper level flow, which will favor training storms along the front. PWATs, while not exceedingly impressive, should be close to 2 inches near/south of the boundary. Given the recent heavy rainfall from Isaias, FFG values are quite low over central/southern MD. Many areas saw 4-6 inches of rain Tuesday, with some even seeing up to 7-8 inches. The 12z run of the HREF show the potential for several inches of rain over this region in roughly a 6 hour period Thursday afternoon/evening. This would easily exceed FFG if realized. WPC has introduced the slight risk of excessive rainfall over this area tomorrow as a result of all of this. Monitor the latest forecast for updates.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RCM NEAR TERM . CJL SHORT TERM . CJL/RCM LONG TERM . JMG AVIATION . CJL/JMG MARINE . CJL/JMG HYDROLOGY . CJL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 83 mi54 min SE 4.1 G 7 84°F 80°F1016.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 95 mi138 min ESE 2.9 1016 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA12 mi55 minSSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds83°F70°F65%1016 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA19 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair81°F69°F70%1016.6 hPa
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA24 mi53 minNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F66°F76%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCHO

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm3S3W3W3CalmN3N3CalmCalmNE3CalmE434S4E75S6S4S5SE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4------------NE12N6NW4Calm534SW75--SW8S9SW5SW4
2 days agoS6S5S7CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm5N5N5NE5E4CalmS4CalmCalmNE4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:46 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:13 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:23 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:41 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.20.80.40.30.71.52.43.13.43.22.82.21.610.60.20.30.91.82.633.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:04 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:39 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:32 PM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.70.40.20.51.32.12.732.82.41.91.410.60.30.20.71.52.32.72.72.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.