Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stanardsville, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend as a cold front approaches at the end of the week.

- 2) Hot & humid conditions are expected early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend as a cold front approaches at the end of the week.

An upper trough and associated surface low will develop over the Great Lakes and move across into the northeast CONUS Thursday into Friday. The trailing cold front will slowly sag south into the region late Thursday through Saturday. Showers and storms will return to the forecast late Thursday for northern and western MD into eastern WV before dropping south into the rest of the region on Friday. There is a marginal risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center Thursday evening/might, as shear will be on the increase. However, think this threat will be very limited as the environment becomes more stable as the sun sets.

Beyond Thursday evening, the timing of the front and how quickly it drops south is still somewhat up for debate. With the primary upper-level energy to our north, thinking that the front is really going to struggle to get south until late Friday when another shortwave slides across the region. This shortwave is likely to generate some thunderstorms, especially near/south of the frontal boundary, where there will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 to 750 J/kg of CAPE present, depending on the model you look at. With 30-40 knots of flow at the top of the mixed layer, think a few storms could bring that wind down, and perhaps you could get a few semi-organized linear segments.
The environment doesn't scream severe weather, but couldn't completely rule out a stronger storm or two. PWATs in this environment will be decent, but nothing overly impressive for late June, reaching the 1.6-1.8" range. Some heavier rainfall rates are likely in some storms, but thinking most development should become cold-pool dominant rather quickly, resulting in very little potential for training cells. Looking at latest QPF guidance, could see some areas picking up an inch, perhaps two, under the strongest storms.

The evolution of this frontal boundary into Saturday is going to be very tricky. There is going to be a lot that depends on where the front hangs up Friday, and where subsequent storms develop Friday. If this happens further north in the forecast area, we could be looking at another day of potential thunderstorms for much of the area. If the front makes it further south, perhaps that threat is more suppressed to the south. At any rate, carrying likely POPs or higher Friday and Saturday for much of the area. However, think there is still a pretty great deal of uncertainty in regards to when it rains and exactly where each day. The forecast does not look like a two-day complete washout at this point, but we'll just have to see how things evolve Friday to start to get a better idea for how things will go on Saturday. In short, it is a very complex forecast situation, so stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates as we get to look at more data.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot & humid conditions are expected early next week.

Any lingering rain or clouds should improve on Sunday, with low pressure transitioning out of the region as high pressure settles over the north by Monday. Temperatures will begin to gradually increase at this point, and with dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s and lower 70s, expect increasingly hot & humid conditions as upper-level ridging builds over the region over the next several days. By Tuesday, temperatures could reach the mid-to- upper 90s across the area.

Beginning midweek, additional showers look to be a possibility as another frontal boundary tracks across the region, but confidence remains low at this time. With a warm front pushing north around this period, temperatures could further increase as ridging to the west builds overhead.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will settle overhead tonight before sliding offshore Thursday allowing for VFR conditions to continue. Winds will shift from the west and northwest Wednesday back to the south Thursday. Have increased wind speeds to include some 18-24 knot gusts into all TAFs except CHO and MRB. Southerly flow is looking stronger than originally forecast. Strongest gusts are expected at BWI and MTN.

A strong cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms could bring temporary flight restrictions across the area Friday and Saturday.
Southwesterly winds shift northwesterly by Saturday night.

A few rain showers could linger into Sunday at KCHO and KMRB, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Sunday & Monday across terminals. Northerly winds shift southeasterly by Monday afternoon.

MARINE
Sub-SCA levels winds will continue through Thursday morning with high pressure overhead, but quickly pick up in the afternoon out of the south. SCAs are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower Potomac zones Thursday afternoon and night due to southerly channeling. With the latest forecast package, have increased winds a few knots given some of the latest hi-res guidance hinting at a pretty strong southerly channeling event.
Also changed the times of the SCA by a few hours, as winds look to hang around a bit longer.

Winds drop back below SCA thresholds Friday into the weekend.
Southerly winds transition northerly winds Saturday evening.
Shower and thunderstorms will accompany this front Friday through the weekend. Some storms could be strong to severe, leading to the potential of SMWs each afternoon. Confidence in this is low at this time based upon timing and placement of surface features.

Winds remain below SCA thresholds Sunday & Monday. Northerly winds shift easterly by Monday morning before shifting southerly later that evening.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 3 AM EDT Friday for ANZ530-531-538-539.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 3 AM EDT Friday for ANZ535-536.