Friday, July3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Drum Point, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:37PM Friday July 3, 2020 11:07 PM EDT (03:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 3:12AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 1037 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1037 Pm Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak backdoor cold front will approach the waters from new england on Saturday, stalling nearby Sunday, before dissipating on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Drum Point CDP, MD
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location: 38.32, -76.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 040123 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak backdoor cold front will sink southwestward from New England on Independence Day, nearing the region Saturday night into Sunday, before dissipating early next week. High pressure returns thereafter with hot and humid conditions persisting.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Main forcing from shortwave trough is across eastern PA, NJ, Long Island as of mid evening. Weak convection trails back to Adams County. This convection should continue to weaken with loss of diurnal heating, moving into a less favorable environment, and outflow that appears to be racing ahead of it. With that said, some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will remain possible across Carroll, Baltimore, and Harford Counties through midnight or so.

Otherwise, satellite indicates some mid/high clouds will pass overhead tonight, and some lower clouds may try to sneak into metro Baltimore late tonight with the approach of a backdoor front. A few patches of fog may develop, but low levels are not saturated, so fog should not be common. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, about 5-10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Weak low pressure will be sitting offshore on Saturday while backdoor cold front and mid level shortwave drops into our area. Flow will become more easterly through the day Saturday increasing moisture advection. Latest models show CAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/kg, and shear near 20 knots. All these along with diurnal heating will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over our area in the afternoon and evening, with highest instability between Central Virginia and southern Maryland. Main initiators appear to be the bay breeze and terrain. Did up PoPs a little in some areas after reviewing 18Z guidance, including along I-95 from DC southward, where there is good model agreement of storm initiation. Most storms should rapidly diminish during the evening, hanging on the longest across the southern Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia, coincident with the remaining forcing.

High temperatures on Saturday will reach the upper 80s and 90s across our area and dew points will be between the mid 60s and low 70s. Highest heat index values will reach mid to upper 90s mainly over areas east of the Blue Ridge, DC and south of it. Drier conditions expected Saturday night, with a few lingering showers possible with low temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

On Sunday the front will be weakening just to our south as high pressure is centered to our north. With some instability, the boundary lingering nearby, diurnal heating, could see an isolated to scattered shower and/or thunderstorm, especially over higher terrain. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values reaching the upper 90s on some locations. Dry conditions over most of our area on Sunday night, with maybe a lingering shower over central VA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long term features a fairly summer-like pattern, which is to be expected now that we're in July. Overall, an upper level ridge will dominate the region. However, several models are indicating a weak upper low embedded within the ridge slowly heading north from the Gulf Coast to the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and then northeast from there, eventually reaching our vicinity towards the end of the week. With the ridge, albeit weak, in place much of the week, temps Monday thru Wednesday should run in the low-mid 90s, a bit above normal for this time of year but not excessive. Isolated mountain convection is possible all three days, but the metros are more likely to stay dry. By Thursday as the upper low approaches, the risk of showers and t-storms will increase region wide, and temps are more likely to stay in the 80s as the clouds and precip potential builds.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Remnant convection may affect MTN or vicinity around 02-03Z this evening. Late tonight into Saturday morning, some guidance indicates MVFR clouds nearing MTN/BWI as a backdoor front approaches. At this time, confidence is less than 50%, so have just included a SCT group. VFR/light winds expected at the rest of the terminals.

With the backdoor front and a weak disturbance crossing Saturday, isolated to widely scattered convection is expected to develop between 17-19Z, tapering off after 23Z (perhaps a bit later INVOF CHO). Enough uncertainty and low coverage at the moment that I left any mention out of the TAFs, though certainly may be able to hone in on this in future issuances.

For Saturday night, there's a better model signal for fog or low clouds, especially MRB, IAD, and CHO.

For Sunday afternoon/evening isolated to scattered convection is also possible, especially near CHO.

VFR with minimal if any impacts to aviation Monday and Tuesday under high pressure.

MARINE. Remnant convection, or its gust front, may affect the Chesapeake Bay north from the Patapsco River late this evening, though gusts should be brief and less than 30 knots. Otherwise, winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday night. However, short periods of gusts near criteria are possible and may be able to cover those with a Marine Weather Statement if needed. Also, isolated thunderstorms could trigger a few Special Marine Warnings, especially Saturday afternoon/early evening. For Sunday, thunderstorm chances are smaller.

Light winds over the waters Monday and Tuesday with minimal t-storm risks.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . IMR NEAR TERM . ADS SHORT TERM . ADS/IMR LONG TERM . RCM AVIATION . ADS/IMR/RCM MARINE . ADS/IMR/RCM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 0 mi68 min NW 1 G 2.9 84°F 84°F1010.7 hPa (+1.0)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 7 mi68 min WSW 8 G 11 1011.1 hPa (+0.8)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 14 mi68 min W 4.1 G 5.1
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi44 min W 7.8 G 7.8 84°F 82°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 22 mi68 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 83°F 84°F1011.1 hPa (+0.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi68 min WSW 8 G 8.9 85°F 87°F1010.6 hPa (+0.9)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 27 mi68 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 85°F 85°F1010.5 hPa (+0.9)
NCDV2 31 mi68 min W 2.9 G 4.1 82°F 83°F1010.5 hPa (+0.9)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 35 mi158 min SSW 1 1009 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 40 mi68 min WSW 6 G 6 86°F 81°F1011.2 hPa (+0.6)71°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi68 min W 2.9 G 2.9 84°F 85°F1009.8 hPa (+0.8)
CPVM2 47 mi68 min 87°F 69°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi68 min Calm G 1.9 86°F 84°F1010.9 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD3 mi76 minWSW 510.00 miFair81°F73°F77%1010.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD5 mi3.5 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F71°F66%1010.8 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD12 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair80°F71°F74%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W6W8W6W8W8W7NW11NW12NW11NW9NW7NW6N5NW6NW644W7SW7SW4SW4SW5W7
1 day ago3W4W3CalmW5N6NW5NW6NW7NW5NE5NE8N10N9N8N10N9NE8NW7NW4CalmSW4SW5W6
2 days agoS6W3NE3CalmCalmSW3NW6NE8NE6E5E4E5SE8E7W5CalmSE6SE9S7CalmCalmCalmCalm4

Tide / Current Tables for Solomons Island, Patuxent River, Maryland
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Solomons Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:15 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:33 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.71.51.20.90.70.50.40.60.811.21.41.31.10.80.50.30.10.10.30.61

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Fri -- 12:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:45 AM EDT     0.26 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:19 PM EDT     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:39 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.300.40.70.8

Weather Map
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.