Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren Center, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:51PM Thursday February 20, 2020 6:30 AM EST (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:16AMMoonset 3:03PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 357 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday morning...
Rest of the overnight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
ANZ500 357 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will pass off the coast of the southeastern united states this evening. High pressure will build west of the area through weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA
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location: 38.32, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 200854 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will pass well south of the region today into tonight. High pressure will build over the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend. Low pressure will approach from the Midwest early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Strong, sprawling high pressure centered over the Plains states extends east to the Atlantic coast early this morning. An upper level jet streak passing through the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS has been responsible for spreading high clouds across the forecast area, which has been quite effective in preventing a temperature freefall. Lows might not be quite as cold as previously advertised.

The morning hours will be uneventful as low pressure in the southern stream organizes in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough axis pivots across the Great Lakes. Anticipate clouds to thicken and lower through midday, due more to the southern stream energy, but also supported by lowering heights thanks to the northern stream.

The northern drift in consecutive model runs seems to have stopped this cycle. Some moisture should be drawn north this afternoon due to the trough and departing jetmax; however, believe airmass simply too dry, storm system too weak, and storm track too far south to support accumulating snowfall within the forecast area. That's not to say that there may not be a few flurries (or sprinkles at onset due to low level temperatures) from late afternoon into early evening due to the mid-upper level forcing. Will still be carrying chance PoPs for the central Shenandoah Valley east to the tip of southern Maryland since the upper end of the envelope still supports this possibility.

By midnight, low pressure will push away from the southeast coast. Reinvigorated cold advection and clearing skies will ensue, with lows solidly in the teens (west and north) to the 20s (DC-Balt metro and central VA).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. With southern stream low pressure gone, the synoptic focus will return to high pressure building across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. The thermal trough will be crossing the eastern section of the country Friday; anticipate it will be the coldest day of the week. A moderating trend will begin Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The long term portion of the forecast will start off quietly, but transition to a more active pattern during the early to middle portions of the upcoming week. High pressure located overhead will slide offshore during the day on Sunday. Southerly return flow will develop on the back side of the high, enabling temperatures to moderate a few degrees compared to Saturday. Highs should be in the mid 50s for most beneath mostly sunny skies.

An initially closed upper low will rapidly track across the CONUS on Sunday and Monday, eventually shearing out into more of an open wave as it progresses to the east of the Mississippi. High clouds will begin to stream in well in advance of this system late Sunday night through Monday morning, but any rain should hold off until later in the day Monday, or possibly even Monday night. Chances for showers will persist through Monday night and into Tuesday within the zone of warm advection in advance of the shortwave. We may see a brief break in the precipitation Tuesday Night into early Wednesday between the lead shortwave and a much deeper trough which will dig in behind it. The break won't be long lived however, with precipitation potentially breaking out once again Wednesday afternoon in advance of the second, more potent trough.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR should prevail today and tonight. An impulse will pass well to the south of the terminals, but some of its moisture will be drawn north. Subsequently, ceilings will lower (likely to 4000-5000 ft) and a few flurries or sprinkles will be possible. If anything more than that were to occur, it would happen at CHO (maybe borderline MVFR?). Do not believe there will be any accumulations, nor vsby restrictions.

This low will be off the southeast coast and pulling away by midnight if not before. Skies will clear overnight as winds pick up. These winds (around 25 kt) may not fully mix down to the ground though.

High pressure will prevail Fri through much of the day Monday. Conditions could potentially deteriorate to sub-VFR Monday night into Tuesday.

MARINE. Light north winds on the waters early this morning, and this should prevail (10 kt or less) through much of the day. Low pressure tracking east will pass well to the south of the waters late this afternoon into this evening. Look for a reinforcing surge of north winds in its wake tonight into Friday. Have issued Small Craft Advisories to cover this threat.

High pressure will be building Friday through the weekend, relaxing the pressure gradient. No additional flags expected at this time.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday for ANZ530>532-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Friday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Friday for ANZ535-536.

SYNOPSIS . HTS/DHOF NEAR TERM . HTS SHORT TERM . HTS LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . HTS/KJP MARINE . HTS/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 0 mi48 min 34°F 46°F1030.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 29 mi60 min Calm G 1
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi42 min 40°F 44°F1030.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi48 min 41°F 46°F1030.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi42 min 39°F 44°F1031.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi34 minNNE 910.00 miFair39°F0°F%1031.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA23 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair28°F25°F92%1032.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA23 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair30°F26°F86%1030.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmW4SE3S3SE6S10S10S8S12S6S4S6S5SW9W5W6NW3NW3N10
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2 days agoW6NW3NE8NE9NE8NE6N6NE6NE4S5S3CalmCalmSW3W4--CalmW3S5SE3SE3CalmW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:07 PM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:31 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.10.80.50.1-0.1-0.2-00.30.71.11.41.51.51.20.90.50.1-0.1-0.10.10.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia
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Colonial Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:06 AM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:40 PM EST     1.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.210.70.30-0.1-0.10.10.50.91.31.51.51.41.10.70.30-0.100.30.61

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.