Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren Center, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:10PM Friday September 20, 2019 12:31 PM EDT (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 11:52AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1035 Am Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain across the waters through Saturday before settling to the south on Sunday. Small craft advisories will be possible for a portion of the waters Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA
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location: 38.32, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 201404
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1004 am edt Fri sep 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will remain in place over the region through this
weekend. A cold front will slowly move into our region during
the early part of next week as the high slides to our southeast.

Near term through tonight
High pressure dominating over the mid-atlantic this morning with
sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some
cirrus clouds are streaming southward out of pa, but other than
that, expect abundant sunshine and continued dry conditions
today. The aforementioned high will continue its southward
shift, thus allowing for a return flow across the region,
resulting in warmer temperatures this afternoon in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

The warming trend continues tonight, however with clear skies
and light to calm winds, ideal radiational cooling conditions
will still result in lows in the 50s areawide by daybreak.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The core of the surface high pressure will slip off cape
hatteras this weekend. Aloft, strong ridging will remain, which
will support continued warm advection, and slight moisture
advection as well. Have reflected this in temperatures
forecasts... Mid 80s Saturday, upper 80s near 90 Sunday. Once
again, have tipped forecast on warm side of the envelope, in
keeping with recent trends.

Guidance suggesting there may be a shortwave ripping over the
top of the ridge axis. This could be just enough to trigger a
few mountain showers when terrain circulations, daytime
heating, and positive vorticity advection join forces to create
lift. Have this at a slight chance right now. Later forecasters
may need to adjust based on confidence level.

The next opportunity for lift will arrive late Sunday night as
heights drop in advance of a cold front. Forecast impact at this
time will just be for increased clouds.

Long term Monday through Thursday
High pressure will retreat further offshore on Monday as a mid-upper
level trough and associated surface cold front approach from the
west. Although it will be a very warm day on Monday (highs in the
mid 80s to near 90), boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
lacking in advance of the cold front (dewpoints in the upper 50s to
near 60). As a result, surface based instability is progged to be
minimal or non-existent, despite the above normal temperatures.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon as height falls gradually overspread the area in advance
of the surface cold front. The best chance for showers or a brief
thunderstorm will reside across northwestern portions of the
forecast area, where they'll be situated closest to the surface
front and most substantial height falls during peak heating hours.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate through
the evening hours as the cold front sweeps through the area.

The cold front will clear the area Monday night, ushering in a
cooler, much drier air mass for Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies are
expected as a weak bubble of high pressure builds in from the ohio
valley. Temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to MAX out in the 70s
to near 80, with dewpoints dropping back into the 50s, or
potentially even 40s.

Through the remainder of the work week, the trend will be for upper-
level troughing to dig over the western us, while upper-level
ridging gradually builds over the eastern us. This will lead to a
warming trend in temperatures throughout the week, as southwesterly
flow aloft transports warmer air into the region aloft. At the
surface, a weak area of high pressure will translate from overhead
to just off the coastline by the end of the week, providing an
extended stretch of dry weather conditions.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr flight conditions will prevail through the weekend. Believe
dewpoints will be too low for meaningful nocturnal fog
development. Could be patchy river valley fog though.

PrevailingVFR conditions are forecast through much of next week,
although a few showers or a brief thunderstorm can't be ruled out
Monday afternoon.

Marine
The pressure gradient will be light under high pressure through
the weekend. Light winds will likely become onshore during the
afternoon hours. As the core of the high moves to the southeast
by Sunday under building heat, the setup will be favorable for
southerly channeling Sunday night. Small craft advisory
conditions possible in the main channel of the bay.

Small craft advisory level winds appear possible both in southerly
flow on Monday, and in northwesterly flow on Tuesday. Winds are
expected to drop back to sub-sca levels by Wednesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Declining anomalies being observed across the area, coming in
at or just below one and a quarter foot. Anomalies will continue
to decrease today, with many sites still achieving action
stage. While no advisories are expected this upcoming tide cycle
today, this evenings cycle will produce waters levels near
minor flood at annapolis and southwest dc, so will need to
continue to monitor trends. After which, anomalies are expected
decrease further with no coastal flooding concerns anticipated
in the near term portion of the forecast.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Bkf hts
short term... Hts
long term... Kjp
aviation... Hts kjp
marine... Hts kjp
tides coastal flooding... Hts bkf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 0 mi62 min SSE 1 G 1.9 1025.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 29 mi62 min N 4.1 G 7
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi62 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 68°F 76°F1026.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi62 min E 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 1027.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi50 min WSW 3.9 G 7.8 67°F 1027.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 36 mi122 min SW 4.1 66°F 1027 hPa54°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi62 min E 4.1 G 5.1 1026.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi62 min S 6 G 11 68°F 77°F1026.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 42 mi32 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 75°F1029.3 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi96 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F55°F59%1027.1 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA23 mi37 minW 510.00 miFair73°F52°F48%1027.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA23 mi57 minSSW 610.00 miFair73°F55°F56%1026.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E3S3S5SW5SW5W3NW6S7W3NW6NW6W7W6NW7NW6NW4NW5W5NW5Calm5S7S9
1 day agoE7NE5E6NE5NE5E5E6E6E6E10SE12E7E5E8E7E6E8E10NW3E8E8E5NE7N5
2 days agoE7NE9NE7NE7NE6E5SE7SE7CalmNW5NW54NE3NW6CalmE3E5NW5CalmNW4NE3E5NE5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
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Fri -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.60.81.21.51.71.81.61.30.90.60.40.30.50.71.11.51.921.91.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia
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Colonial Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:22 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.50.711.41.61.81.71.51.10.80.50.40.40.60.91.31.71.921.81.51.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.