Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Ocean City, MD

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Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 18, 2019 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:47PMMoonset 6:17AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 102 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely until early morning.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 102 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast. A weak trough of low pressure will cross the region Thursday. Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Ocean City, MD
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location: 38.34, -75.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181729
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
129 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through the weekend.

A trough of low pressure will cross the region through tonight.

Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until Monday.

Near term through tonight
As of 100 pm edt Thursday...

convection a bit slower to develop this aftrn, so I adjusted the
grids a bit. Still expect sct convection to dvlp as the day wears
on, but the latest high res models are now showing less in the way
of storm coverage.

Pvs dscn:
given the current lack of clouds (mstly sunny skies), we should
quickly heat up once again into the low-mid 90s before any
convection develops after 18z- 21z today. Tuff call will be the
dew points which will determine heat index values. After looking
at latest model guidance, decided to expand the heat advsry one
row of counties farther west up to but not including the i95
corridor. Dew points over the east should avg in the mid 70s
while some mixing is possible across the piedmont (dew points
arnd 70 west of i95) with heat index values 100-104.

Convection expected to develop along the trof and across the
sern coastal areas by late aftrn. Thus, kept chc pops for now
except likely across the NRN neck lwr md ERN shore late where
models show the best coverage. Thinking ATTM is that portions of
the heat advsry may be cancelled early as developing convection
cools the airmass.

Very warm and muggy tonight. Partial clearing with lows in the
70s.

Short term Friday through Sunday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

high pressure (both at the sfc and aloft) build from the se
coast west into the mid ms valley Friday through the weekend.

H85 temps btwn 20-22c bring a mainly capped airmass, suppressing
convection for the most part both Fri and sat, though a slight
chance has been maintained each day. This could break down a bit
across the north on Sunday with some late day storms possible
across the piedmont and north of ric.

Main concern will obviously be for the extreme heat (highest
since 2012) across the lower mid-atlantic region. Highs in the
mid-upr 90s nr 100, in tandem with dewpoints in the mid-upr 70s
yields heat index values 105-110 well inland, with excessive
heat criteria very possible for hampton roads and tidewater
areas. The heat peaks on Sat Sun with highs upr 90s- lwr 100s
and heat index values ~110-113 (excessive heat warning levels)
over much (if not all) of our area. Will continue to highlight
this potential in the hwo. Due to these oppressive dewpoints,
record highs will be tough to reach but record high lows appear
attainable if not likely... See climate below.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
As of 240 pm edt Tuesday...

the GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a developing eastern us
trough and a weakening of the bermuda high for early next week,
although the trend is a little slower than yesterday. This results
in a break in the heat wave after Monday and also with the cold
front likely to stall either along the coast or in the carolinas,
expect a chance for showers and storms to continue through midweek,
especially along SE portions of va and NE nc. The 12z GFS seems
climatologically to be too strong in trying to develop a closed low
over the tn al by midweek. At this point prefer more of the
ecmwf solution with the NE trough being maintained farther to
the north with just a weakness lingering between the ridges over
the lower ms valley. This would be drier solution for the area
for Wednesday into the later portion of next week.

At this point have held to chance pops each day with the best chance
for rain with the frontal passage from late Monday through Tuesday
evening. Temperatures will continue to be very warm on Monday with
highs in the low to mid 90s, followed by a drop off into the mid to
upper 80s on Tuesday on Wednesday with the front moving through and
an increase in clouds.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 130 pm edt Thursday...

vfr conditions to start off the forecast period with sct-bkn cu
and ac across the area. Still expect to see sct convection dvlp
over the west then traverse east after 21z as storms fire up on
a lingering trof that is located over the area. Once again, MVFR
cigs, gusty winds and varying vsbys in local heavy downpours are
possible in any storm. Storms end over the piedmont this eve, but
may linger along the sern coastal areas thru early fri. SW winds
10-20 kts outside of tstms.

Outlook...

bermuda high (heat dome) dominates over the weekend capping any
convection from developing Fri sat. This breaks down a bit sun
allowing for some late day convection over the piedmont. A better
and more widespread chc for convection comes later Mon as a cold
front apprchs the area.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

overnight SW winds will increase as the trough approaches tightening
the pressure gradient a bit. Ssw winds increase to 15 kt with some
gusts to 20 kt over ches bay, and 15 to 20 kt in the coastal waters.

This will build waves to 2 ft in the bay, and seas to 3-4 ft on the
coastal waters. SCA is up for the bay through tonight. There may be
a few gust up to 20 kt.

The winds will begin to relax to 10 kt on the bay and rivers,
and 10 to 15 kt on the ocean waters Thu morning, as the trough
of low pressure stalls. Expect more storm activity on Thursday
with more of a potential for convective wind gusts for 30 kt or
greater Thu afternoon and evening.

The pressure gradient will weaken Thursday night, allowing for a
winds to decrease to 5-10 kt. This pattern will continue through the
weekend. The bermuda high will build back in late on Sunday, in
response winds will increase to 10-15 kt (15-20 kt for the
oceans zones off the nc coast).

Climate
Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
thu (7 18) 101 1977 77 2005
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
thu (7 18) 104 1942 79 1995
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
thu (7 18) 100 2012 78 2012
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
thu (7 18) 107 1942 79 2012
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Equipment
As of 130 pm edt Thursday...

kakq radar is back to normal operation.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for vaz077-078-
081>090-092-093-095>100-518-520-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mpr mam
short term... Mam
long term... Ess
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jao cp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCSM2 1 mi192 min 2 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 1 mi72 min SSW 13 G 16 75°F 67°F1012.9 hPa (-0.6)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 22 mi82 min SSW 16 G 18 79°F 77°F4 ft1012.1 hPa (-0.5)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 31 mi72 min WSW 5.1 G 11 90°F 73°F1011.7 hPa (-0.7)
44089 42 mi72 min 81°F4 ft
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 44 mi72 min SSE 4.1 G 6 84°F 74°F1011.5 hPa (-0.5)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 45 mi72 min 1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD3 mi19 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F77°F72%1011.9 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD22 mi18 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F65%1012 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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W4W3CalmS4S6SW6SW6SW7SW7W8W8W6W7SW7SW8S9S12
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2 days agoE7E7SE6SE6SE5SE4S33S3S3S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS64S5SW7S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Keydash, Isle of Wight Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Fenwick Island Light, Delaware
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Fenwick Island Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:30 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:30 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.50.6000.61.52.43.23.63.63.12.41.60.90.40.4122.93.74.24.33.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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