Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jenner, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 855 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

The short term forecast is in good shape with no tweaks needed.
We continue to monitor the potential for increased winds this weekend. At present time, the fiercest winds are anticipated over the open waters of the Pacific Ocean, however, some of the higher terrain regions such as the North and East Bay Mountains and Hills, as well as the higher terrain of the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges may see gusts exceed 45 mph (around a 60-70% chance). At this time, the coverage of gusts above 45 mph appears too small to warrant any sort of wind products. There's an elevated risk for grass fires with the increased winds and afternoon humidity falling down below 30% in some locations. With most areas (though not all) still benefiting from winter rains. Given the marginal nature of wind/fire weather concerns, we'll simply advertise these hazards via messaging (AFD, text products, IDSS, and graphics/social media). Be sure to avoid activities that could spark a grass fire and obey any local fire restrictions.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

Mostly clear sky conditions have returned to the region this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be within a few degrees (-5 to +5) of seasonal averages. However, passing high clouds continue over the region. Low clouds are likely to return tonight and into Saturday morning, and push further inland, as we have abundant low level moisture.

Coastal drizzle will also be possible Saturday morning as the marine layer deepens overnight. Low clouds spreading further inland, the deepening of the marine layer, and an approaching trough of low pressure will result in a slight cool down for Saturday afternoon. Maximum forecast high temperatures will range from the mid 50's to mid 60's on northwest facing coastal locations to upper 60's to mid 70's across the interior.
Northwesterly winds are expected by Saturday afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph in lower elevations across the region with stronger gusts up to 45 mph in the higher elevations and just along the North Bay coast.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

Winds ease slightly Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the exception of the higher elevations. Breezy and gusty winds will persist on Sunday afternoon with similar values mentioned above, maybe a tad bit stronger. The aforementioned upper level trough will dig into the Great Basin through Sunday before ejecting further to the east. This will result in northerly, potentially offshore winds in the higher elevations and typically windy gaps and passes of Napa, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara counties Sunday night into Monday. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions as humidity values will be in the 40-50% range Sunday night and as low as 15% on Monday afternoon (again in the higher elevations).

High pressure will begin to build into the Pacific Northwest and northern California in wake of the exiting trough with the warmest day currently anticipated to be Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon look to be 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages with mid 60's to mid 70's for coastal areas, mid 70's to lower 80s across the bayshore, and mid 80's to lower 90's across the interior. More of a zonal flow is expected by late next week with the likely return of a shallow marine layer and more seasonal temperatures.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

MVFR cigs will persist through the overnight, then hover between MVFR/VFR from sunrise through late morning Saturday, then VFR through the afternoon into the early evening. Monterey Bay terminals are expected to be MVFR through the forecast period. Gusty northwest are expected to produce low level wind shear at KSTS Airport 12z-17z Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO.. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through the overnight then straddle MVFR/VFR from late morning through the at least the early evening, then MVFR through the remainder of the forecast period. Gusty westerly winds will redevelop late Saturday morning and persist through at least the evening hours, easing after midnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals.. MVFR cigs will persist through the forecast period with periods of light drizzle possible as well.
Breezy winds overnight will become gusty late Saturday morning and persist through the evening hours with a steady fetch of onshore winds from 15 to 25 knots at times.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025

Gusty to strong northwest winds will persist over the coastal waters tonight through the weekend, and into the middle of next week. Expect hazardous marine conditions with rough to very rough seas through Tuesday night.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 9 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.