Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salisbury, MD

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A weak warm front continues to lift back to the north into this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.

- A few showers are possible tonight, mainly across the northern half of the FA.

The latest surface analysis indicates a strong upper level ridge in place along the East Coast, with a trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, ~1029mb sfc high pressure was centered over Quebec, ridging SSE over the northern mid-Atlantic coast. Surface low pressure (~1000mb) was occluding over the Great Lakes (co-located with the upper low). A weak warm front was located in a NW to SE orientation between the Northern Neck and Ches Bay. Partly cloudy skies were noted across the FA with temps as of 3 PM in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most with upper 60s to around 70F across the Eastern Shore (N of the warm front). Highs this afternoon a degree or two higher are expected.

Tonight, as the surface low continues to move E-NE into eastern Canada, a slow moving cold front will approach the FA from the NW.
Most of the precip will stay N of the region until later in the evening. However, isolated to scattered light showers are possible mainly across the northern half of the FA overnight (25-45% PoPs).
Lows tonight will remain well above normal, mainly in the low-mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, particularly across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across northeast North Carolina Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

- A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday across the far southern portions of the area.

The cold front will be slow to drop south on Tuesday, and will likely stall over southern VA Tuesday evening, eventually pushing S of the local area Tue night as a backdoor cold front. As such, scattered showers and storms are likely ahead of and along the front Tue into Tue night mainly across S portions of the FA (40-60% PoPs during the afternoon and up to 70% PoPs Tue evening). A few strong to severe storms are also possible Tue afternoon into early Tue evening across NE NC. SPC has placed this area in a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds the primary threat (although isolated hail is also possible). Depending on the timing of the front, additional scattered showers may continue into Wed across far S portions of the FA (40-70% PoPs), particularly if the front is delayed. Any showers taper off by Wed evening. Highs are expected to range from the lower 80s Tue to the 70s (lower 70s SE to upper 70s NW) Wed.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry Thursday, then unsettled again Friday into Saturday evening.

- Above normal temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday with near normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

Aloft, a ridge remains in place across the eastern CONUS through late week, allowing for above normal temps. The current model consensus is for enough of a push of drier air to make it south into the local area for a mainly dry day Thursday with temperatures near to slight above normal (lows in the low-mid 50s and highs in the 70s). The next upper trough is forecast to amplify from central Canada south into the central Plains states later Fri, becoming a strong upper trough across Quebec and the St Lawrence Valley by later Sat. At the surface, an area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and into Canada Fri into Sat, pushing a warm front north across the area Fri before the associated cold front moves through Sat afternoon into Sat night. Scattered showers and storms are possible Fri across with the warm front, particularly across western portions of the FA (35-45% PoPs). The highest chance for showers and storms will be Sat along the cold front as PoPs increase to 60-80%.
Sun and Mon look cooler and drier behind the front with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 755 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF period. Mid to high level clouds increase tonight into Tuesday ahead of an approaching (weak) cold front. There is a low chc of a shower tonight at RIC/PHF...but these aren't expected to result in any flight restrictions. The front will cross part of the area during the day. SCT cumulus is expected to develop during the afternoon, with scattered showers/tstms possible during the late aftn-evening, especially INVOF ORF/ECG. As such, have added PROB30 groups at these two terminals between 19-23z to account for the convective potential. Showers/tstms will likely dissipate by 03-06z Wed. Winds gradually become SW 5-10 kt late tonight, becoming W or variable on Tue.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few tstms are possible again Wednesday afternoon, with the highest coverage across SE VA and NE NC. Dry/mainly VFR on Thu.

MARINE
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this afternoon into early tonight for the Chesapeake Bay.

- A generally benign marine pattern develops Tuesday through Friday.

- Winds become elevated ahead of and behind an approaching cold front this weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

The latest surface analysis indicates a strong upper level ridge in place along the East Coast, with a trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, ~1029mb sfc high pressure was centered over Quebec, ridging SSE over the northern mid-Atlantic coast. Surface low pressure (~1000mb) was occluding over the Great Lakes (co-located with the upper low). A weak warm front was located in a NW to SE orientation between the Northern Neck and Ches Bay. Winds this afternoon were SE 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

The warm front continues to lift N this evening with winds gradually becoming S later this evening, eventually becoming SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late tonight. Given the elevated winds this afternoon into this evening, SCAs are now in effect across the Ches Bay until 1 AM Tue. A weak cold front approaches from the NW/N late tonight into Tue, likely stalling over the local waters Tue. As such, winds become light and variable Tue at 5-10 kt. The cold front doesn't fully cross the local waters until Tue night or early Wed with winds becoming NE 10-15 kt. Winds remain generally 10-15 kt through Fri before a warm front lifts N across the local waters.
Winds become S behind the front Fri night with low-end SCAs possible Fri night into Sat afternoon. Winds become N 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind a cold front Sat night through Sun. SCAs are likely with this CAA surge. Gale probs were only <10% for most of the waters for this surge.

Waves and seas were 2-3 ft this afternoon. Seas build to 3-4 ft tonight into early Tue. Waves and seas subside to 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively by Tue afternoon.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.