Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:21AM||Sunset 9:13PM||Saturday June 12, 2021 9:59 AM EDT (13:59 UTC)||Moonrise 6:58AM||Moonset 10:25PM||Illumination 6%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Birdseye, INHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLMK 121234 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 834 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021
Forecast Update. Issued at 831 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021
As expected, the low stratus/patchy fog has mixed out for most of the majority of the area this morning per regional observations and web cameras. Satellite imagery was showing generally clear skies over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The only exceptions were across parts of the Bluegrass with observations around Lexington showing patchy fog, and Lake Cumberland per visible satellite. These areas will continue to improve as we go through the rest of the morning. The rest of the forecast for today continues to be on track so no additional updates are needed at this time.
Short Term. (Today and tonight) Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021
Sct low stratus is noted over the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions this morning, and patchy fog has developed as well. Will continue to monitor potential for dense fog this morning, but not currently expecting widespread issues. Very low stratus in the eastern CWA may be the main concern through sunrise.
Weak mid-level height rises begin today in the wake of the upper level trough drifting off to the southeast. Models do hint at a weak mid-level PV max over east-central KY on the backside (in this case, to the north) of the upper level trough. Though there's not really a sfc low or obvious boundary, sfc pressure field is baggy with some hints of weak convergence over western KY and southwestern IN. Thus, identifying forcing today is challenging with no obvious trigger. Still, given the height and thickness increases, temperatures will get quite warm this afternoon and we will reach convective temps.
Fcst soundings do not show much convective inhibition today, and MLCAPE values should reach 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon. Expect a gradient in the higher CAPE values (2000+ J/kg) over west-central KY near our border with PAH. 00z HREFv3 does show more SCT coverage in this region this afternoon in reflectivity paintball plots. Decided to go with isolated to widely scattered coverage in the PoP grids this afternoon, with the higher values over west-central KY and southwestern IN. But do expect coverage will remain fairly sparse overall. If a cell or two can get going, storm outflow may be the primary forcing mechanism for new updrafts. Fcst soundings do support localized strong wind gusts again today with any storm that can develop. Deep layer shear remains quite weak, so there is no risk for more widespread organized severe weather threat. PW values are lower today in the 1.4 to 1.6 inch range, but isolated heavy downpours could cause localized ponding issues.
Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in most places. A few spots east/northeast of Lexington may only reach the mid 80s. Isolated convection will remain possible past 00z this evening through about Midnight. Trended the forecast dry by 06z Sun. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Long Term. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021
A weak cold front will approach during the day Sunday and will likely serve as a trigger for convective development. While deep layer shear will be weak (<25kts) and fairly uniform out of the northwest, there will be a substantial amount of instability (SBCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG) along with DCAPE (>1000 J/KG) to support a damaging wind/microburst threat in stronger thunderstorms.
Airmass behind the weak front will likely feature some slightly drier dewpoints (swapping from low 70s to low 60s), but temperatures won't fall much going into Monday as afternoon highs top out into the upper 80s and low 90s. A second cold front will pass on through late Monday night into Tuesday, and the airmass behind it will be a bit more noticeable than the first. Highs through midweek will likely top out in the low 80s with dewpoints generally staying in the 50s. Dry conditions are anticipated through this period as well.
Toward the end of next week, the large upper level ridge across the western U.S. will begin breaking down and shifting some toward the central and eastern U.S. As a result, temperatures will gradually increase across our region Thursday and Friday. A weak cold front may approach by late Friday into early Saturday and could result in some unsettled weather to start off next weekend.
Aviation. (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021
Impacts: Brief MVFR/IFR fog this morning, mainly HNB and LEX. Isolated TSRA possible this afternoon and evening, but coverage is expected to be too low to include in the TAF at this time. MVFR/IFR fog possible early Sunday.
Discussion: Patchy fog has developed this morning, most notably in the Kentucky River and Cumberland River basins. Also expect TEMPO IFR fog to continue through 12Z at HNB. Winds will remain light through the period, increasing out of the north to around 5 kt this afternoon. Sct cu around 5 kft likely this afternoon, along with the development of isolated thunderstorms. Coverage expected to remain fairly sparse.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . None. KY . None.
Update . BTN Short Term . EBW Long Term . DM Aviation . EBW
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|Huntingburg, IN||15 mi||64 min||ESE 3||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||78°F||72°F||82%||1010.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KHNB
Wind History from HNB (wind in knots)
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