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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 948 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 5 seconds. A chance of rain late in the morning. Rain likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 25 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 948 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a strong cold front will approach from the west today, bringing strong southerly winds to the local waters. The front will cross the region tonight, with strong winds shifting to the northwest. High pressure builds in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 101521 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1021 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area later today. Expect gusty and rainy conditions across the entire area, with locally heavy rain possible at times. Colder air will sharply move in behind the frontal system as high pressure builds back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1020 AM EST Sunday...

Forecast for the heavy rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds remains on track. The strong cold front continues to slowly push east over the Appalachian Mountains today with widespread showers and occasional embedded storms along and ahead of the front.

Meanwhile, the upper trough will continue to deepen this morning and eventually take on a negative tilt as it lifts north from the Gulf Coast crosses the area tonight. Anomalous high amounts of deep- layered moisture is advecting into the area as the flow at the sfc and aloft is from the SW. PWAT values expected to surge to 1.50-1.75"later today ahead of the cold front. The strong southerly flow ahead of the front this afternoon and evening will result in wind gusts of 20-30 mph, with the stronger speeds closer to the coast (which is slightly lower than previously forecasted). The highest wind gusts will be behind the cold front with NW winds gusting to 30-45+ mph tonight into early Monday morning. Make sure to secure any loose outdoor objects and holiday decorations that may blow around/away in the wind tonight.

Showers are likely this morning across the Piedmont with lower coverage farther east towards the coast. Hi-res CAMs continue to show additional prefrontal convection developing across central and eastern portions of the FA this morning into this afternoon ahead of the front. More widespread rain is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered thunderstorms. Instability has already developed across SE VA/NE NC this morning with up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. CAPE is expected to increase later this morning into this afternoon to 500-1000 J/kg (highest values in NE NC). If any additional breaks in cloud cover can occur this afternoon, instability will be locally higher (closer to 1000 J/kg) with severe storms more likely.

Strong LLJ may allow for strong to severe winds to mix down to the surface in the strongest cells this afternoon. Exact timing of severe threat seems to have expanded a bit earlier, possibly starting as early as mid- day and persisting into the evening hours, especially across SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s across eastern VA/NC this afternoon. Low level wind fields will strengthen during the day, with damaging winds and tornadoes the primary risks. Given the increased dew points (mid 60s already in the SE) and therefore instability, SPC has increased the threat level to a slight risk (level 2/5) across SE VA/NE NC where multiple rounds of convection are possible. The first round will be prefrontal semi-discrete convection developing ahead of a theta-e boundary later this morning into this afternoon. Any storms that can remain discrete have the best chance for a tornado. A secondary round of convection is possible with the front itself as the wind field increases this evening due to the secondary sfc low in NC strengthening. Instability will be more questionable with this round due to multiple rounds of convection during the day potentially overturning the environment. However, with strengthening frontogenesis and an enhanced LLJ as the trough becomes negatively tilted this evening, storms may be severe along the front, especially with any kinks or curves that form in it with damaging winds and tornadoes possible. Damage to power lines and trees will be possible in any of the gusty winds that occur throughout the day.

In addition to the severe threat, widespread rainfall amounts of 2- 3 inches are expected with this system. There will likely be localized higher amounts across eastern VA and southeastern MD.
Some high res models are indicated storms may train over the same areas, and may produces around 4" of rainfall. Lastly, expect a very quick 15- 20 F temperature drop as winds abruptly turn to the NW following the frontal passage. Stratiform precip will continue for a few hours early Mon AM behind the front as moisture wraps around the system as it exits and continues to strengthen. Latest 00z model runs are indicating a better chance for rain to change over the snow late tonight into early Monday morning. This may coincide with a band of strong mid- level frontogenesis, which could create high precip rates and allow for the cold air loft to make it to the sfc, changing rain to snow. If there is accumulation, it will be mainly on grassy or elevated surfaces. This will mainly effect areas of central VA, including the Richmond metro. The precipitation is forecast to end by 4-6 AM west/6-8 AM east. If the precip does change over to snow any faster than currently expected, there may be up to an inch of snow on grassy/elevated surfaces in our far NW counties Monday morning. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s-around 40F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 415 AM EST Sunday...

High pressure will then build in behind the front during the day on Monday. Any rain or snow will end before 9 AM. Expect clouds to gradually clear out throughout the late morning to early afternoon hours. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach back into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. A chilly night is forecast Monday night as the cold air really settles in, with most inland locations falling into the lower 20s and coastal spots dipping to around 30 degrees. Tuesday will bring much of the same as high pressure centers itself across the region.
Expect clear skies, light winds, and high temperatures around 50 degrees. Tuesday night won't be quite as cold with lows in the upper 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 100 AM EST Sunday...

Benign weather looks to start the long term period with dry and seasonably cool conditions. Zonal flow will be in place as surface high pressure becomes centered over the region. Some clouds may pass through on Wednesday before clearing out overnight allowing for temperatures to fall into the low to mid 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the coast. A reinforcing secondary high pressure will keep the dry and cool airmass in place for Thursday, with highs holding in the upper 40s to around 50. Models then start to indicate a potent low pressure system developing somewhere across the Intermountain West to Southwest before moving eastward across the country. Differences in placement and timing of this system are very noticeable by the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Will keep monitoring this developing system through time since both have it making it to the Mid-Atlantic region and impacting our local weather at the very end of the long term period.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 630 AM EST Sunday...

MVFR and IFR conditions today. Rain and thunderstorms will be moving in later this morning and continuing into tonight. IFR CIGs at at RIC, but may rise to MVFR during the late morning and early afternoon. CIGs are expected to drop to IFR by midday- early aftn at RIC/SBY. LLWS of ~40 kt from the SSW will develop over RIC later tonight and persist through ~15z. Showers start to move in from west to east after 12z, with isolated tstms possible from midday through the evening. The best chc of seeing thunder is in SE VA/NE NC. Brief gusty winds of 35-50kt are possible with the stronger convective cells. VSBYs will average 3-5 SM in the showers, with brief IFR VSBYs likely in the heavier showers/tstms. On Sunday, southerly winds are expected to increase to 12-16 kt inland with terminals closer to the coast seeing sustained winds of 15-20 kt. Southerly wind gusts upwards of 25-30kt are possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon.

The front is progged to cross the terminals from NW-SE between 01-07z Monday. Expect an abrupt wind shift to the NW following the FROPA. A short period of 30-40kt gusts is possible at the terminals early Mon AM shortly following the FROPA.
Precipitation will continue through much of Sun night/early Mon AM, and could end as a rain/snow mix at RIC/SBY. Breezy conditions continue on Monday with W-NW winds as the system gradually moves off the coast. Expect skies to clear throughout the day. VFR conditions are forecast into midweek as high pressure builds in.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EST Sunday...

Surface high pressure is now well off the coast ahead of a strong cold front that extends southward from low pressure in southern Ontario. Additional areas of weaker low pressure are noted along the front across the Ohio Valley and southward into Alabama. Winds are generally SSW at 5-15 kt over the local waters. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Going forecast is largely on track with only minor modifications necessary to match trends in the 00z guidance. Southerly flow increases today with SCA headlines going into effect by mid morning for the Ches Bay and coastal Atlantic waters and this afternoon for the remaining zones. Guidance has trended a bit slower with the increasing southerly flow but still expect all waters to see SCA conditions by this afternoon as low pressure develops/deepens over North Carolina. This area of low pressure will quickly become dominant this evening as it moves NE into SE VA and then NNE along the coast tonight as the upper trough takes on a negative tilt.
Deeper convection along and ahead of the surface cold front could lead to locally stronger wind gusts and the potential for waterspouts given very strong kinematics aloft. Hi-res models continue to show a bit faster frontal progression this evening with the boundary expected to move over the waters from NW to SE between 02-08z (9pm-3am). Gale Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones tonight as winds abruptly become NW and increase to 25-30 kt with gusts 35 to 45 kt behind the cold front. The strongest winds are expected to immediately follow the frontal passage as stronger flow aloft mixes down to the surface with the potential for locally stronger winds near the track of the deepening low. This scenario seems most likely from near the mouth of the bay southward to the VA/NC border late tonight. After the initial surge behind the front, strong NW winds maintain gale conditions into the early daylight hours of Monday morning before low pressure begins to pull away to the NE. Wave guidance has come down somewhat compared to previous runs as winds turn offshore slightly faster. That said, seas are still expected to build to 7-9 ft N and 5-8 ft S tonight. Waves in the bay generally 2-3 ft today, building to 3-6 ft tonight (highest near the mouth of the bay).

Timing of headlines is unchanged with this forecast package, ending from SW to NE through the morning hours. SCA headlines will be required as gales come down late morning into the afternoon with winds generally 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. WNW winds decrease to 15-20 kt Monday evening and further to NW 10-15 kt by Tuesday morning. Thereafter, high pressure lingers over the region through late week with much improved boating conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630- 631-654-656.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630-631-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632- 634-658.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652.

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Ocean City (fishing pier)
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Sun -- 04:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 AM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:31 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:20 PM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:24 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocean City (fishing pier), Maryland, Tide feet

Fenwick Island Light
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Sun -- 04:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:16 AM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:40 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:39 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fenwick Island Light, Delaware, Tide feet

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