Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mid to high clouds remain across the area which will help keep mild temperatures in place through daybreak. Forecast lows will be in the 50s which is around 8 to 12 degrees above average.

Through the morning, the warm/stationary front will return northward as a warm front. This front will lift through the area through the day today, bringing an increase in clouds. No precipitation is expected with the warm front. Some uncertainties with how far north the warm front will actually get, which will have an impact on temperatures. Those in NE MD may stay in the 60s today on the north side of the boundary, while those to the south get into the 70s if not low 80s in central VA. Areas along waterways will also be cooler in the southeast flow. The cldcvr will keep temperatures in check from their full potential. A cold front is progged to move in from the west during the late afternoon and gradually move eastward overnight.

The best lift and instability will be focused along and west of I-81 which should have the best chance for observing measurable precipitation from showers and potentially a few thunderstorms. As the front moves eastward into the I-95 corridor, the chances for widespread precipitation decreases due to lack of instability.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the region through early Tuesday Morning.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures expected to be above normal in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds will become light out of the north behind the front. Low end chance for a rain shower across central VA, but most guidance has the front well south of the area. Cooler temperatures will start to build into the region late Tuesday with overnight lows forecast to drop down into the 50s along and east of I-95 and temperatures in the 40s to the west.

High pressure will dominate Wednesday into Wednesday night, though temperatures will remain above average with upper 70s for most. Another night of 40s/50s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A mild weather pattern continues through at least the first half of the weekend. Mid/upper heights remain above average within a persistent southwesterly flow regime. Multiple weak perturbations in the flow will lift from the Southern Plains toward the Mid-Atlantic.
These particular impulses should help increase diurnal shower chances, especially by Friday as the boundary layer further moistens. This is when a frontal boundary to the south retreats northward as a warm front. The increase in instability should also foster the development of some afternoon to evening thunderstorms.
Shower activity likely persists into the night given continued warm advection lift.

Unsettled conditions can be expected into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front to the west. Models still exhibit quite a bit of uncertainty in just how the structure of the system will look.
However, it looks reasonable to expect a cold frontal passage on Saturday which will favor additional shower and thunderstorms. This would likely be the most active of the days given the stronger ascent with the front. In the wake, expect a drier finish to the weekend as broad Canadian high pressure builds in from Ontario.

The temperature forecast calls for widespread 70s from Thursday through Saturday. Overall model spread appears to be highest on Saturday given uncertainties in the pattern and coverage/timing of showers. Expect a downtick in temperatures for Sunday as high pressure builds in. In response, nighttime lows eventually return to the 40s on Sunday night.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of today, aside from this evening when restrictions are possible in any rain showers. Through the morning, 4-6kft deck of clouds should develop to the east of the Blue Ridge. No restrictions associated with this, and most guidance keeps it above 4kft.
Winds SE this afternoon with gusts up to 15 kts. Winds become WNW behind the cold front this evening.

Any remaining low to mid level clouds clear out Tuesday morning giving way to a broken/stratocu deck. VFR conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday with high pressure nearby.

A warm front will slowly approach the area from the south on Thursday before moving through on Friday. This comes with an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity, particularly by Friday.
Consequently, some restrictions are possible in this regime. Winds both days should mainly be out of the south to southeast, while picking up in intensity to around 15 knots on Friday.

MARINE
A warm front will lift northward through our marine areas today resulting in southeast winds channeling up the bay. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the lower Potomac and middle and southern portions of the bay from this afternoon until the cold front clears the area overnight. This may need expanded to include all or more of the waters.

Winds likely remain below SCA criteria Tuesday into Wednesday with high pressure nearby.

Winds stay below advisory levels on Thursday before ramping up by Friday as a warm front moves through. The passage of this boundary also raises the chances for showers and thunderstorms over the waterways. South to southeasterly winds may near Small Craft Advisory levels for the second half of Friday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537-540>543.