Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 7:07 AM EST (12:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:00AMMoonset 10:00PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 638 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. A chance of snow showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build north of the region through Friday morning. Low pressure will pass southeast of the area Saturday. High pressure will build south of the region for the first half of next week. Small craft advisory conditions are likely Saturday night through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates CDP, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 290903 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 403 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build north of the region through Friday morning. Low pressure will pass southeast of the area Saturday. Weak high pressure will build south of the region for the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A stubborn deck of clouds in the 4000-6000 ft layer has held strong once again tonight across most of the area. Portions of Orange, Albemarle and Nelson Counties have seen some breaks, but elsewhere the overcast has been solid. Much like last night, with the stubborn clouds still in place and winds of 5-10 mph out of the northwest, temperatures haven't dropped off much. Have raised the low temperatures for this morning to account for this.

Today, a weak shortwave will track from NJ/PA to off the Jersey Shore by this afternoon. Meanwhile, another disturbance will track from the MS Valley toward the TN Valley and Gulf Coast states. We'll have quiet weather conditions locally between the two disturbances. The main forecast question today will be what happens with the cloud cover as we progress through the day. Nearly all of the forecast area will start off with cloudy skies this morning. Most guidance clears this cloud cover out from NE to SW quite rapidly this morning. Given how bad forecast models have handled the cloud cover over the past few days, not completely buying into that at the moment. Think that the clouds will hold strong through much of the morning at a minimum. By later in the afternoon, as the shortwave to our NE moves further offshore, we may see a decrease in the cloud cover as subsidence behind the wave starts to build in. Currently forecasting solid cloud cover this morning, with gradual clearing through the afternoon, but given how the last few days have went, that may be optimistic. Highs today will be in the low-mid 40s for most.

The shortwave initially over the MS/TN River Valleys will approach the area from the SW tonight. Expect clouds to increase overnight ahead of the system, but conditions should stay dry through daybreak. Lows tonight will be in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The previously mentioned shortwave will progress across the area on Thursday. The shortwave won't be very impressive, but could produce enough lift to spark some light snow showers across southwestern portions of the forecast area (Potomac Highlands and Central Shenandoah Valley). Temperatures will be cold enough for snow through the day, but precipitation totals will be underwhelming. Minor accumulations of under an inch can't be ruled out anywhere across the Potomac Highlands or Central Shenandoah Valley, but Highland and Pendleton Counties will have the best chance to see accumulating snow. Any accumulations will fall well short of advisory levels. No precipitation is expected east of the Blue Ridge. As the shortwave progresses off to the east, any light snow showers should wind down during the afternoon hours. Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s to the west of the Blue Ridge, with upper 30s and low 40s to the east of the Blue Ridge.

A longwave trough with several embedded shortwaves will start to dig across the center of the country on Friday. Locally, we'll have dry conditions under mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the 40s. Moving into Friday Night, a shortwave embedded within the larger trough will progress from the Deep South toward the Carolinas, inducing the development of an area of low pressure at the surface. Guidance has trended to the SE with the track of this surface low, but the exact placement of the northwestern edge of the precip shield varies from model to model, as well as within the ensemble members. Currently it appears as though the best chances for precipitation will be to the SE of I-95. Conditions appear as though they'll be too warm for snow from the metro areas south and east. Northwest of the metros, temperatures look marginal at best for producing snow, so think this event will largely be a rain producer across the area. Best chance for snow will be in the mountains, but with the southeastern trend in the track of the low, they might not see much precipitation until upslope kicks in behind the departing low much later in the weekend.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. At 12Z Saturday, global models show two separate streams but beginning to interact between each other by 00Z Sunday. At the sfc, a rapidly deepening low pressure center should be tracking along the Mid-Atlc coast and quickly move out to sea. Guidance have come into much better agreement with regards to sfc low track, but the GFS still shows the most inland track and, therefore, has more precip reaching farther west into our area. Even that, its thermal profiles indicate mostly rain to our area. Any precip associated with this coastal low will exit quickly by 18Z Sat. A second shortwave-trough will cross the area Sat night with any showers possibly mixing with or changing to snow showers with no accumulation expected outside the Appalachian region.

Brisk on Sunday under strong NW flow. Upper level ridge then begins to build quickly from the west with a warming trend expected Monday through mid next week.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR conditions today, but a stubborn deck of clouds in the 4000-6000 ft layer will hold strong through at least this morning. We may see some clearing late this afternoon into this evening before more VFR clouds progress back in overnight.

VFR conditions will persist at the terminals through the daylight hours of Friday. Conditions may drop to sub-VFR as rain associated with a coastal low moves in Friday Night, but there's still a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to how far NW the precipitation shield will progress.

Gusty NW winds to around 30 kt are possible Sunday.

MARINE. Sub-SCA level winds are expected over the waters through Friday, with winds gradually shifting from northwesterly to southerly.

Possible gales Sunday in NW flow.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LFR NEAR TERM . KJP SHORT TERM . KJP LONG TERM . LFR AVIATION . LFR/KJP MARINE . LFR/KJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi49 min NW 8 G 11 40°F 42°F1018.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi49 min N 11 G 14
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi55 min NW 12 G 16 41°F 42°F1017.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi55 min NNW 7 G 8.9 41°F 41°F1018 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi31 min NNW 14 G 16 38°F 1018.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi55 min N 8 G 13 41°F 42°F1018.2 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi157 min WNW 4.1 1017 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi55 min NNW 8.9 G 11 40°F 43°F1017.9 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi67 min W 9.9 G 11 40°F 40°F1019 hPa (+1.5)28°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi49 min 40°F 1017.8 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi55 min 40°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi49 min NW 8 G 9.9 40°F 40°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi15 minNW 1110.00 miOvercast41°F28°F60%1018.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi20 minWNW 3 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1019.3 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi14 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast44°F26°F49%1018.2 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi22 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast39°F26°F61%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNHK

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW5CalmW3CalmSW5N6NW8NW9W8W6W4CalmNW4CalmNW8NW6CalmSW3SW4SW4CalmSW6SW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:53 AM EST     0.50 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:25 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM EST     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:46 PM EST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:59 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.40.50.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.200.30.40.50.40.2-0-0.2-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.