Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:28PM Friday July 19, 2019 7:25 PM EDT (23:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:25PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 436 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely. Tstms likely .
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the southeastern states through the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night, then cross the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates CDP, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191932
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
332 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the southeastern united states
through the weekend. A cold front will approach from the great
lakes Sunday, then cross the region early next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
A ridge of high pressure remains across the southeastern conus.

Temperatures heat index values aren't quite up to advertised
headlined criteria... But its close. Don't want to send the wrong
message by dropping warnings to advisories.

A pop up thunderstorm still can't be ruled out due to terrain
circulations between the allegheny front and blue ridge this
afternoon, but the latest satellite imagery not impressive. Am
still carrying slight chance pops to cover this risk, but its
starting to look doubtful.

Tonight will not offer much relief with lows in the middle 70s
to lower 80s and very humid (heat indices remaining 80-90).

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
Dangerous heat will continue through the weekend.

The heat is still expected to peak Saturday, with heat indices
possibly approaching 115 in the i-95 corridor due to ambient air
temperatures around 100 and dew points between 70 and 75.

Confidence high enough to raise warnings and advisories for peak
heating Saturday.

Again, overnight temperatures and humidity will offer no relief,
with lows in the lower to middle 80s (near all time record warm)
in the major urban centers expected, and just barely below 80
even in outlying areas (dew points will be quite high as well,
mid 70s to lower 80s overnight).

A pop up storm once can't be ruled out due to terrain
circulations Saturday, but forcing coverage look sparse. A
bigger but still conditional concern would be for an organized
thunderstorm complex to develop across pennsylvania or west
virginia and drop southeast. Its unlikely, but non-zero.

Heights fall Sunday as a cold front make an approach. Precip
chances higher, and increase at night. The added clouds precip
risk make temperature forecasts more uncertain. Have left the
excessive heat watch for Sunday.

Long term Monday through Friday
A cold front will approach and move through the region Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. There has been a lot variability with
the model solutions for the Monday into Tuesday frontal passage.

They have been speeding up the solution which would mean more
of a flood threat for our region but the recent runs of the gfs
have slowed the frontal boundary considerably bringing the
boundary through Tuesday morning. This solution would mean
Monday will have the ability to warm back up into the mid 90s
which would mean more CAPE available for thunderstorms and
showers to form. This would lead to higher threat for severe
weather especially with CAPE values above 2500 and shear above
20 to 25 knots and forcing with the cold front approaching from
the west. We will need to continue to track the model trends but
their will be the potential for severe weather and flooding
Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures could reach heat advisory
criteria again as dew point temps will hover in the upper 60s to
low 70s. There is the potential for precip to linger through
Tuesday. A cooling trend will begin on Tuesday with temperatures
during the day not expected to reach much over the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

High pressure will build back into region from the midwest on
Wednesday and linger over our region through the end of next week.

Cooler temperatures are forecast to build back into our region with
day time highs running in the upper 70s to mid 80s depending on the
model solution. Generally a much cooler and drier air mass is
expected to finish next week.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
MainlyVFR and very hot and humid through the weekend. Patchy
fog is possible for outlying terminals each night, but low
confidence at this time. W flow AOB 10 kts.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday or Sunday
night into Tuesday, potentially provided local brief but
significant flight restrictions.

Marine
Guidance suggesting that southerly channeling may become
established this evening down the chesapeake bay, have issued a
small craft advisory this evening into the overnight hours,
which may need to be adjusted depending upon how this actually
pans out.

Otherwise, looking at hot humid conditions with light flow,
becoming onshore late in the day. Thunderstorms may approach by
late Sunday as a front nears.

Hot and humid conditions will be possible again over the waters on
Monday. A southerly flow up the bay may create winds strong enough
to reach small craft advisory criteria. A cold front will move
through the waters Monday afternoon into Tuesday which may lead to
the need for small craft advisories into Tuesday.

Climate
The record daily warm low temperature for iad for july 18th is
74 degrees, set in 2005 and 1969.

As a reference, here are the warm temperature records for
Friday through this weekend:
record daily high temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 102 (1930) 106 (1930) 104 (1926)
bwi 103 (1930) 102 (1930) 104 (1930)
iad 98 (1977) 101 (1980) 101 (1991)
record daily warm low temperatures
jul 19 jul 20 jul 21
dca 81 (1930) 82 (2015) 82 (1987)
bwi 80 (1942) 80 (1930) 83 (1930)
iad 77 (2013) 75 (2015) 77 (1987)
highest july temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (7 21 1930)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 78 (7 24 2010, 7 8 2010)
all-time highest temperatures
highest MAX warmest low
dca 106 (7 20 1930, 8 6 1918) 84 (7 24 2011, 7 23 2011, 7 16 1983)
bwi 107 (7 10 1936) 83 (8 5 1930, 7 21 1930, 6 6 1925)
iad 105 (7 22 2011) 79 (8 8 2007)
longest stretches of consecutive days with high temperatures at or
over 100 degrees at iad:
2 (7 7-8 2012, 7 21-22 2011, 7 6-7 2010, 8 16-17 1997, 7 16-17 1988
and 7 20-21 1980)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at dca:
5 (7 16-20 2013)
longest stretch of consecutive days with low temperatures at or over
80 degrees at bwi:
4 (8 8-11 1900)
temperature records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca) since
1941. Additional temperature records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the baltimore md area have been kept at what
is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall airport
(bwi) since 1950. Additional temperature records observed downtown
extend the period of record back to 1872.

Temperature records for the sterling dulles va area have been kept
at what is now washington dulles international airport (iad) since
1960.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for dcz001.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
dcz001.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for dcz001.

Md... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for
mdz003>006-011-013-014-503>508.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for mdz003>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for mdz016>018-502.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for mdz502.

Va... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for vaz028-
031-052>054-505-506.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
vaz028>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for vaz028>031-036>040-050>057-501-502-505-506.

Heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for vaz025>027-029-
030-036>040-050-051-055>057-501-502.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for vaz025>027.

Wv... Excessive heat warning until 9 pm edt this evening for
wvz051>053.

Excessive heat warning from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for
wvz051>053.

Excessive heat watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
evening for wvz051>053.

Heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for wvz050-055-502-
504.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 9 pm edt Saturday for wvz050-055-
502-504.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Saturday for anz532>534-541-543.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Jmg
aviation... Hts jmg
marine... Hts jmg
climate... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi56 min S 12 G 13 87°F 1012.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi56 min SSW 6 G 7 91°F 85°F1011.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi32 min SSE 9.7 G 12 87°F 1013.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi56 min SSE 8 G 9.9
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi62 min SSW 13 G 14 88°F 89°F1012.9 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi62 min 93°F 87°F1012 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi62 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 91°F 89°F1012.3 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi62 min SW 4.1 G 7 94°F 1011.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi86 min SSE 12 G 13 87°F 85°F1012.7 hPa (-1.5)81°F
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi32 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 87°F 86°F1012 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi56 min 92°F 1011.2 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi56 min 88°F 85°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi56 min SSW 6 G 8 95°F 88°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi34 minSSE 710.00 miFair91°F78°F66%1012.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair91°F73°F56%1012.9 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi33 minSE 510.00 miFair94°F75°F56%1012 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi41 minSSW 310.00 miFair91°F77°F63%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6CalmSW9SW8SW8SW7SW8W7W6W6W5W5W64NW5NW5N7SE7SE8E8W8W7S5SE7
1 day ago6SW3SW4SW5S5SW8S8SW6S8SW9SW8SW7W10SW9SW7W10SW12SW64SW7SW7W7W5N5
2 days agoSW7SW10SW10
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G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:51 AM EDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:56 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:58 PM EDT     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.10.10.40.60.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.40.40.30.20-0.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.