Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sereno del Mar, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:11PM Saturday September 21, 2019 8:49 AM PDT (15:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 1:05PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 810 Am Pdt Sat Sep 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Sunday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 19 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 19 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 11 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 11 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 13 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. NW swell 6 to 8 ft and sw around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. NW swell 9 to 11 ft and sw around 2 ft.
PZZ500 810 Am Pdt Sat Sep 21 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Light to locally breezy northwest winds across the waters through this weekend. Strongest winds will in the outer waters north of point reyes where hazardous squared seas are also possible. Winds will increase again by Monday as another low pressure trough drops into the great basin. A 9 to 10 second northwest swell will be mixed with a long-period southerly swell.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sereno del Mar, CA
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location: 38.4, -123.09     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 211204
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
504 am pdt Sat sep 21 2019

Synopsis A warming trend will continue today. A low pressure
system moving southward to our east early next week may create the
potential for continued warming temperatures, dry offshore flow
and increased fire weather concerns. A trough of low pressure will
move through the region late next week resulting in significantly
cooler temperatures.

Discussion As of 4:45 am pdt Saturday... We're starting the
morning with clear skies, only a few patches of stratus or fog is
seen on satellite imagery way out over the coastal waters. A mid
to upper level shortwave ridge over the western CONUS is getting
quickly pushed forward by strong westerlies spanning the pacific.

Compression of the air mass over our CWA has formed temperature
inversions near sea level more or less, at 200 to 400 feet altitude
per recent profiler data. Under sunny skies, high temperatures
today will be as warm as it was on Friday if not a few degrees
warmer especially well away from the bays and ocean. Afternoon sea
breezes will offer some late day cooling to the immediate coast
and in the bays. Forecast highs today are in the upper 60s to 70s
coast to the 80s and 90s inland valleys.

Jet stream winds over the eastern pacific and gulf of alaska becomes
increasingly amplified sending a shortwave trough into the pacific
northwest and far northern california late tonight into Sunday. A
little bit of a downtrend in temperatures for most locations in our
cwa is anticipated late in the weekend as a dry cool front sweeps
southward. A briefly zonal jet stream flow develops by early Monday
morning after quickly spinning up the aforementioned shortwave trough
into a closed mid level circulation which slows upon reaching the
desert southwest and northern mexico next week. The jet stream
progresses along the canadian and u.S. Border through the middle
of next week. In response to this pattern surface pressures will
build over the great basin increasing offshore flow and warming up
temperatures and drying the air out increasing fire weather
concerns as daytime temperatures peak in the 90s to possibly 100
on Tuesday. This transition is fast paced Monday and Tuesday of
next week, and because of the progression of the jet stream winds
may end up helping mitigate the strength of the offshore flow to
some extent. However, any subsequent model changes leaning toward
longer duration offshore flow would obviously changes things toward
greater concern over fire weather and heat risks. For now, forecast
high temperatures Tuesday are below record high levels. Records for
Tuesday's date include 104 napa in 1964, 95 san francisco in 1997,
99 downtown oakland in 1978, 106 livermore in 1936 and 98 san jose
1964, santa cruz 102 in 1975, 99 monterey 1978 and king city 106
in 1936. 850 mb temperatures climb to near 22 celsius and this
brought to near sea level under dry adiabatic warming easily
translates to high temperatures in the 90s.

The going theme here through next week is that day to day changes
in temperatures will be increasingly up down up down just like a
roller coaster due to a very energetic westerly current that has
persisted most if not entirely all summer long and as the seasons
change the southward advancing westerlies is increasingly affecting
our weather here in our cwa. And there's no real let up seen in the
westerlies with the pattern turning increasingly amplified again
especially later next week as a deep mid to upper level trough
forms over the west coast. With falling 500 mb heights and much
cooler air surging southward from the mid to high latitudes the
latest model output also shows increasing chances of precipitation
developing next Friday into Saturday. For now a slight chance of
rain was added to the forecast for this time period late next
week. Lots of weather changes through next week, please stay tuned.

Astronomical fall season begins at 12:50 am pdt Monday, september
23rd.

Aviation As of 5:05 am pdt Saturday... WidespreadVFR with clear
skies. Light am winds becoming locally breezy onshore by the
afternoon, especially near the coast. For tonight, short term
models indicate enough moistening in lower levels (ie +3-5f dew
points) to finally allow for return of some low coastal clouds
overnight Saturday into Sunday. As such, latest TAF reintroduces
low clouds at predominately coastally dominated locations briefly
overnight into Sunday. Any clouds that do form will likely be
compressed below 1000 ft and remain near the shoreline or just
inland, incl near kmry koak ksfo. These clouds will not be robust
enough to persist beyond mid morning Sunday.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR.

Fire weather As of 2:55 am pdt Friday... A quick look at energy
release component (erc) and 100 hour fuel values are both well
below normal for the region. The below normal readings are likely
in response to the recent rain and cool weather. A warming and
drying trend is on track to develop into the weekend. There is
even a brief period of offshore flow Friday night across the north
and east bay hills. Winds will be breezy with moderate to
possibly poor humidity recoveries Friday night. Not strong enough
or long enough to warrant any red flag warnings. What it may do is
help chip away at the low ercs and high 100 hour fuels. The
inside slider mentioned above will bring a more pronounced
offshore flow event Monday into Tuesday with poor overnight
humidity recovery and gusty winds in the hills. One potential
limiting factor is the actual offshore flow gradient. Models put
the wmc-sfo gradient at 7-8 mb, decent but not strong. If this
pattern holds true a fire weather watch may be in order over the
weekend. Climatologically this is the favored time of year for
offshore flow events and red flag warnings for wind rh in the bay
area. Taking a look at the bigger picture - far norcal has had a
few wetting rain events so fire season may be near the end to the
north. Socal - not so much and fire season will keep on going.

What about the bay area? Fuels have been below normal for much of
the summer and recent cool wet weather has kept them that way.

That being said, the recent wet weather wasn't wet enough to end
fire season. Therefore, we're not out of the woods yet and we
should remain weather fire aware through the fall season.

Marine As of 05:00 am pdt Saturday... Light to locally breezy
northwest winds across the waters through this weekend. Strongest
winds will in the outer waters north of point reyes where
hazardous squared seas are also possible. Winds will increase
again by Monday as another low pressure trough drops into the
great basin. A 9 to 10-second northwest swell will be mixed with a
long-period southerly swell.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
public forecast: canepa
aviation: drp
marine: drp
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 16 mi19 min Calm G 1.9 55°F1014.9 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 29 mi49 min 54°F1014.7 hPa (+1.1)
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 37 mi19 min 57°F6 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 47 mi19 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 59°F1015.4 hPa
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 48 mi49 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 57°F 51°F1015 hPa (+1.0)
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 49 mi49 min 59°F3 ft
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 49 mi55 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 64°F 65°F1014.8 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 49 mi68 min NNW 1.9 65°F 1015 hPa

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA17 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair55°F51°F87%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N6NW5Calm334SW10SW9S5S5SE6S3CalmNW5NW4NW6CalmW4NW4CalmCalmW3Calm
1 day agoCalmN9N6SW3Calm46SW3W9W8W4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4NW5NW5NW5NW6NW5
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmS63W9
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W11NW8W6CalmNW6W4W4NW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bodega Harbor entrance, California
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Bodega Harbor entrance
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Sat -- 05:44 AM PDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:29 AM PDT     3.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:04 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:25 PM PDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Sat -- 11:49 PM PDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.72.433.43.83.83.73.53.33.23.23.53.94.44.95.25.24.84.13.12.11.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:56 AM PDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:29 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:42 AM PDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:33 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:47 PM PDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:25 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Sat -- 09:03 PM PDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.40.60.70.60.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.10.30.50.50.40.1-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.1-1-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.