Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stafford Courthouse, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:53PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 7:08 AM EDT (11:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:37PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 607 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt... Becoming nw with gusts to 35 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 3 ft late. Scattered showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers in the afternoon. Rain through the night.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 607 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will pass through the waters today and high pressure will build to the west through through Thursday before settling to our south Friday. Low pressure will pass through the waters this weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stafford Courthouse, VA
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location: 38.41, -77.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 210844 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 444 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will cross the area today. Canadian high pressure will build to our west tonight through Thursday before settling to the south late in the week. Low pressure may will likely pass through the area this weekend before high pressure returns early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A potent upper-level trough will dig overhead through tonight. The surface low associated with this will strengthen and track to our north while a cold front passes through our area today before moving offshore Wednesday night. A few showers are possible this morning into early this afternoon along and ahead of the cold front, with highest confidence for precipitation being near and east of Interstate 95 and also along/west of the Allegheny Front (upslope component to low-level flow). The forcing along the front will be strong, so a line of gusty showers and perhaps a severe thunderstorm is most likely to setup to our east where instability will be higher due to the later time of the frontal passage. However, there still is an isolated threat for a severe storm in our area anywhere from near I-95 to the Bay.

A mild southerly flow ahead of the cold front will give way to sharply colder conditions (temps will fall from the 50s and 60s to the 40s and 50s quickly with the frontal passage) and gusty northwest winds of 25 to 40 mph. The cold front will move east of the Allegheny Highlands by 8 AM, then through the I-81 corridor to the Blue Ridge Mountains between 8 AM and 11 AM, then through the metro areas between 11 AM and 1 PM, and clearing extreme southern MD and the nearby water zones between 2 PM and 4 PM.

The upper-level trough will remain overhead tonight allowing for blustery and cold conditions for this time of year. A Freeze Warning is in effect for northern MD and locations near/west of the Blue Ridge Mountains where the growing season is in effect. It will be close in the valleys with temperatures around 32 degrees. There is a possibility that wind and some clouds may keep temperatures up, but the air aloft will be quite cold and there may even be a little break in the winds toward sunrise. Therefore, a Freeze Warning has been issued. Temperatures in the ridges will be well below freezing.

For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, the strong cold advection and upslope flow will result rain showers changing to snow showers later this morning into this afternoon. Scattered snow showers will continue tonight. There will be some instability, and that is causing elevated numbers in the snow squall parameter. Heavier bursts of snow are likely especially this afternoon and evening. The warmer ground and antecedent conditions will limit snowfall accumulations, but 1-2" are possible for the higher ridge tops above 3kft through tonight. A few rain or snow showers may even spill east of the mountains due to the high inversion and instability. However, any precipitation will be light.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The upper-level trough will remain overhead Thursday while low pressure slowly tracks into the Canadian Maritimes. Gusty northwest winds are expected and it will be quite chilly for this time of year. A few snow showers are expected along/west of the Allegheny Front and a rain/snow shower could spill east of the mountains as well. Winds will diminish Thursday night as the upper-level trough departs and high pressure builds nearby to the south and west. More chilly conditions are expected and frost/freeze headlines may be warranted.

High pressure will build to the south for Friday and Friday night, and a return flow will allow for more seasonable conditions along with some sunshine for Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Conditions will start out dry on Saturday, but rain is expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the afternoon and evening hours as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. There are some subtle differences in the track of the low amongst model guidance, but little sensible differences in terms of impact, with nearly all deterministic and ensemble solutions showing a soaking rain across the area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. With the low tracking nearby and a large shield of stratiform shield of precipitation preceding it, we should be stable. As a result, severe thunderstorms shouldn't be a concern. Flooding isn't expected to be a concern either, with dry antecedent conditions, and precipitation totals generally under an inch.

The aforementioned area of low pressure and its associated shortwave trough will progress off to our east on Sunday. This should lead to clearing skies throughout the day. The main weather feature of note on Sunday will be winds. Gusts of 30-40 mph appear possible at times in northwesterly flow behind the departing area of low pressure. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to max out in the 60s for most.

The mid-upper level flow pattern across the CONUS is expected to amplify early next week as a trough digs into the western US. Heights will rise downstream of this trough, with a ridge building over the Great Lakes for Monday and Tuesday. This will place us in northwesterly flow aloft, which will encourage the maintenance of high pressure at the surface and quiet weather conditions. Sunny skies are in the forecast for both Monday and Tuesday, with a moderating trend in temperatures anticipated. Highs will reach well into the 70s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR conditions are expected through Friday night. An isolated shower or perhaps even a thunderstorm is possible across the eastern terminals through midday. However, confidence for a stronger storm has lowered with the more favorable setup being to the east. Will continue to monitor, especially for KBWI, KMTN, and KDCA because it will be close.

A wind shift to the west and northwest with gusts around 25 to 35 knots is expected behind the frontal passage later this morning through early this afternoon. The gusty winds will continue this evening before diminishing some overnight and then picking back up for Thursday.

Winds will diminish Thursday night as high pressure settles to our south. A lighter return flow is expected Friday into Friday night.

VFR conditions are expected for the first half of Saturday. Conditions may drop to sub-VFR Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as rain and low clouds move in. A return to VFR conditions is expected on Sunday, along with gusty northwesterly winds.

MARINE. A cold front will pass through the waters late this morning through mid-afternoon. A line of showers and perhaps a gusty thunderstorm is possible ahead of the cold front. Special Marine Warnings may be warranted.

Winds will shift to the west and northwest behind the front with gusts up to 35 knots expected. A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters today through tonight, but the strongest winds are most likely later this afternoon through this evening.

More gusty winds are expected for Thursday, but confidence is too low for a Gale Warning at this time due to a slightly weaker wind field aloft. However, gusts around 30 knots are expected and an SCA is in effect. Winds will diminish some for Thursday night and Friday, but an SCA may still be needed for portions of the waters. High pressure will settle nearby to the south Friday night.

SCA level winds appear possible on Saturday in southerly flow. At least SCA level winds appear likely on Sunday in northwesterly flow. Gale conditions may be possible, but surface temperatures warmer than water temperatures could be a limiting factor.

FIRE WEATHER. A strong cold front will pass through the Shenandoah Valley late this morning and through the metro areas and VA Piedmont by early this afternoon. Gusty west to northwest winds and falling relative humidity is expected behind the cold front. Rainfall, if any should average out to be light for most areas and fuel moisture remains low. This may enhance the threat for the spread of wildfires this afternoon. However, that threat may be limited somewhat by the recent greenup that has occurred.

Windy and dry conditions may also enhance the threat for the spread of wildfires Thursday. Dry conditions with ligher winds will persist Friday before rain is expected this weekend.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ003>006-507. VA . Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ025>031-040-501-505-507-508. WV . Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ051>053. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>543.

SYNOPSIS . BJL NEAR TERM . BJL SHORT TERM . BJL LONG TERM . KJP AVIATION . BJL/KJP MARINE . BJL/KJP FIRE WEATHER .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 21 mi50 min SSW 11 G 16 58°F 62°F1006.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi50 min S 8.9 G 12 59°F 60°F1006.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi98 min WSW 9.9 59°F 1007 hPa46°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 50 mi50 min SW 17 G 22

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA3 mi73 minSSW 610.00 miFair56°F37°F49%1008.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA9 mi72 minSSW 910.00 miFair59°F45°F60%1007.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi73 minSSW 810.00 miFair57°F45°F64%1007.1 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA20 mi73 minS 6 G 1410.00 miFair57°F42°F57%1006.4 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi72 minS 410.00 miFair55°F44°F67%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRMN

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN3SW3SW3SW3S6CalmSE3SE3E4SE5E3E5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN3CalmN5S3SW3W3N5CalmNW8NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:59 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.90.80.60.50.40.30.20.20.50.70.91.11.110.80.70.50.30.10.10.20.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:46 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:15 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:54 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.42.82.82.72.21.71.20.80.60.711.72.52.932.92.521.410.70.50.7

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