Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Roseland, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday August 13, 2020 10:55 AM PDT (17:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 2:57PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 812 Am Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Today..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds and S around 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..NW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds and S around 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and S around 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 2 to 4 ft and sw around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft and sw around 2 ft.
PZZ500 812 Am Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Remnant tropical moisture from former hurricane elida will bring chances of Thunderstorms to the waters from south to north throughout the day. Expect locally gusty winds, rough seas, and frequent lightning with some of these cells. Otherwise, generally light to moderate northwest winds across the waters through the weekend aside from locally breezy winds over the northern outer waters into this evening. Mixed seas will persist through the period with a short period northwest swell and two longer period southerly swells.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roseland, CA
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location: 38.43, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 131732 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1032 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warming trend will continue through late week as high pressure builds toward the coast. Some tropical moisture arriving from the south will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. By Friday and moreso over the weekend hot weather returns to inland areas with triple digit heat likely continuing into early next week while a shallow marine layer persists along the coast.

DISCUSSION. as of 07:30 AM PDT Thursday . Active weather expected today as a slug of elevated moisture ejected from former hurricane Elida will spawn high based showers and thunderstorms, of which the main threat is from lightning. Radar and satellite imagery as well as lightning detection networks confirm the existence several discrete convective cells currently off the coasts of Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and now Monterey counties early this morning. IR satellite imagery suggests enhancement is underway of these discrete convective cells just off the coast with numerous lightning strikes detected and increasing cloud tops. As a result, confidence is increasing for the potential of these showers and thunderstorms moving into our region from south to north today. Latest local WRF data suggests an even more widespread coverage of these showers and thunderstorms than previous thinking however we are now moreso in weather watch mode and will make more decisions on ground truth and satellite/radar trends. This may lead to several forecast updates this morning to nudge coverage of potential showers and thunderstorms today and a few of these updates have already been sent this morning. For now, current thinking is that there will be some precipitation to accompany these higher based showers, but perhaps not initially as the falling precipitation evaporates into (and gradually moistens) a dry layer beneath the elevated moisture/cloud bases. As such, there is some potential for dry lightning today, especially on the leading edge of the thunderstorms, however, rain rates in these cells should be sufficient in breaking through dry layers. That said, the rain shafts may not overlap with erratic strikes, so the potential for dry lightning is definitely a threat worth watching closely today and into tomorrow.

Otherwise, the main forecast focus looking forward the next several days will be regarding the upcoming heat for the inland areas and upgrading from excessive heat watch to heat advisory/excessive heat warning where necessary.

See previous discussions for more details on the current forecast package in regards to specifics, timings, etc as forecaster focus will now shift to weather watch through the morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. as of 02:56 AM PDT Thursday . A change in the weather is literally on the the horizon, but more on that later. In the meantime, a compressed marine layer hugs the San Mateo Coast southward to Point Conception and up the Salinas Valley. The compressed marine layer has resulted in low clouds and patchy fog. Given the shallow nature clearing of low clouds will be quicker than the previous few days. Additionally, the warming trend noticed on Wednesday will continue today as high pressure aloft continues to build over CA. Highs today will be across the interior with max temps reaching the upper 80s to lower 100s. Coastal areas will still hold onto some onshore flow keeping temperatures cooler, but still above normal with max temps reaching the 70s to mid 80s.

The bigger change in the weather is lurking to the south. The remnants of former Hurricane Elida has resulted in a good slug of tropical moisture surging northward. Satellite imagery captures this well with PWATs greater than 1 inch to the south. Additionally, local radars in SoCal and the Bay Area area already picking up a few echoes over the coastal waters, which are associated with the tropical moisture. Lastly, enough instability is in place that a few lightning strikes are showing up on GLM and other networks. Models from the 00Z run continue to advertise a northward track of the moisture/instability through out the day. Current forecast holds with a chance for showers/thunderstorms over the southern waters and southern Monterey/San Benito later today. Given the higher PWATs storms will be on the wetter side, but storm motions are marginal so a few dry strikes are possible. Obviously the greatest concern would be for fire weather. Additional surges of moisture and instability continue again Thursday night and Friday. The second surge appears to be a tad farther west and initially over the waters Thursday night then brushing land Friday afternoon. All that being said, confidence is still not high enough to pull the trigger on a Red Flag Warning at this time. Even if the precipitation forecast doesn't completely pan out, clouds streaming overhead and muggy conditions will be a slam dunk. Moisture begins to exit the Bay Area Friday into Saturday.

The second and potentially bigger impact to the Bay Area will be the impending heat. For several days now model guidance has shown a set up for a decent heat event for the Bay Area. Latest guidance continues that message and even suggests this could be a prolonged event lasting well into next week. No major change from previous forecast. Each day will ratchet upward with temperatures with the peak of the heat this weekend. The tricky part as always will be the large temperature spread from near the coast to inland areas. Lingering onshore flow will keep coastal areas from seeing really hot temperatures, but highs in the 80s are plausible. Interior locations can expect to see max temps in the 90s to 108 and if conditions line up just right up to 110-112. In addition to the hot daytime temperatures overnight lows will be very mild. The increasing clouds overhead will help to keep mild temperatures everywhere and not just in the hills. Current low temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s, which are close to record max low temperatures. All that being said, will keep the Excessive Heat Watch going for interior areas of the East/South Bay and southern Monterey/San Benito Friday through Sunday. This watch will likely be converted over to a Heat Advisory or possibly a Excessive Heat Warning later today.

Some minor cooling is expected by the middle of next week, but interior areas will still be in the 90s to lower 100s.

AVIATION. as of 10:32 AM PDT Thursday . for 18z TAFs. VFR conditions through the period for most sites as a very compressed marine layer remains in place at or below 1000 ft AGL. Satellite imagery also shows high clouds moving in from the south as remnant tropical moisture pushes northward from former Hurricane Elida. This will increase the risk of instability over the area throughout the day with a slight chance of high based thunderstorms through this evening, mainly for coastal sites. The greatest risk of thunderstorms will be across the Monterey Region. These storms are high elevation and are expected at around 10,000 to 15,000 ft AGL. Main risk will be of lightning across the region with most cells, at least initially, not expected to have precipitation that reaches the surface as lower elevations are fairly dry. Will keep an eye on radar and satellite to determine whether additional VCTS should be added to the tafs. Patchy coastal stratus may redevelop overnight, but should be fairly confined to the Monterey Peninsula. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon around 15 kt.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR with approaching high clouds. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but confidence is low enough that VCTS has been left out of the tafs. Onshore winds this afternoon 15 to 20 kt.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon. Low confidence on potential development of stratus this evening, but left IFR cigs in KMRY for now. High clouds moving in now from tropical moisture. METAR sites to our south show bases between 10,000 and 20,000 ft AGL. Slight chance of high based thunderstorms into this evening.

MARINE. as of 08:12 AM PDT Thursday . Remnant tropical moisture from former Hurricane Elida will bring chances of thunderstorms to the waters from south to north throughout the day. Expect locally gusty winds, rough seas, and frequent lightning with some of these cells. Otherwise, generally light to moderate northwest winds across the waters through the weekend aside from locally breezy winds over the northern outer waters into this evening. Mixed seas will persist through the period with a short period northwest swell and two longer period southerly swells.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm



PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP/MM AVIATION: AS MARINE: AS

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 34 mi26 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 54°F 53°F1013.9 hPa53°F
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 35 mi56 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.4)
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 38 mi56 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 66°F1013.3 hPa (+0.6)
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 40 mi38 min ESE 5.1 64°F 1014 hPa
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 40 mi71 min W 5.1
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 41 mi56 min S 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
UPBC1 41 mi56 min WNW 7 G 9.9
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 41 mi56 min WNW 9.9 G 11 69°F 70°F1012.8 hPa (+0.4)
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 44 mi56 min WSW 9.9 G 11 71°F 70°F1012.5 hPa (+0.5)
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 45 mi56 min WSW 7 G 8.9 63°F 63°F1013.6 hPa (+0.5)
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 45 mi56 min 60°F4 ft
PXSC1 46 mi56 min 65°F 60°F
OBXC1 47 mi56 min 63°F 59°F
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 47 mi56 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.7)
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 47 mi26 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 56°F 57°F1014.5 hPa55°F
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 47 mi56 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.7)
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 48 mi56 min W 1.9 G 2.9
LNDC1 49 mi56 min W 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 1013.3 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA8 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair72°F48°F44%1012.5 hPa
Petaluma Municipal Airport, CA13 mi61 minVar 310.00 miFair70°F55°F60%1013.5 hPa
Novato / Gnoss Field, CA21 mi81 minVar 310.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSTS

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm634S7S8SE10SE9SE8SE5SE4S4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW3W3CalmCalmCalm
1 day ago44S8S9
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S12S9S9S11S10S7S6S4S3SW4S4W3CalmCalmSE3SE4S4S4S4Calm
2 days agoS7S7S10S10S12S12S14S12S10S9S5S5S4S53S5S4S4W4CalmCalmCalmCalm6

Tide / Current Tables for Upper drawbridge, Petaluma River, San Pablo Bay, California
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Upper drawbridge
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Thu -- 01:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:10 AM PDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:29 AM PDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:56 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:31 PM PDT     2.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM PDT     6.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.62.51.61.10.811.62.43.344.44.44.13.52.92.62.63.24.25.46.36.66.3

Tide / Current Tables for Lakeville, Petaluma River, San Pablo Bay, California
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Lakeville
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Thu -- 01:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:51 AM PDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM PDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:55 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:11 PM PDT     2.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:33 PM PDT     6.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.12.21.40.90.81.11.82.63.344.34.23.83.32.82.52.73.44.45.56.26.35.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.