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Marine Weather and Tides Port Tobacco Village, MD Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:16AM

Sunset 5:27PM

Tuesday January 28, 2020 12:08 AM EST (05:08 UTC)

Moonrise 9:37AM

Moonset 9:06PM

Illumination 10%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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FXUS61 KLWX 280209 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 909 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. A couple of weak disturbances will cross the region in northwest flow through Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the northern Great Lakes during the middle of the week as a cold front drops south from New England and low pressure passes well to the south near Georgia. A larger area of low pressure may approach from the Southeast U.S. Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. The main forecast updates tonight revolve around cloud cover in the moist northwest flow, with nearly-solid overcast extending into Canada and back to the northern Plains. A shortwave trough/vorticity axis is pivoting across the area this evening. After that passes, it's possible there's enough subsidence to allow some clearing with south/eastward extent (with more of a downslope influence as well). However, am not convinced we return to totally clear skies any time soon, especially given RAP RH cross sections. Will be taking a look to see if low temperatures need to be adjusted upward any as a result, not to mention there could be a slight surface wind remaining through the night.

Other than a brief sprinkle, and precipitation should be limited along/west of the Allegheny Front in the upslope regime. Moisture depth is shallow, so accumulations should be minor. It also may mean there could be a bit of freezing drizzle/mist, but do not foresee widespread travel impacts at this time.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. In general, high pressure will be building toward the area through the middle of the week. Embedded in northwest flow ahead of the high, however, will be another weak disturbance Tuesday. Drier air squashes any threat for precipitation east of the mountains (with minimal chances along the Allegheny Front).

Due to the continued northwesterly winds, temperatures should trend closer to, if not slightly below normal Tuesday through Wednesday night thanks to a dry backdoor cold front.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure should keep conditions cool and mainly dry Thursday through Friday, though a disturbance passing to the south could bring some light precipitation to the Allegheny highlands/I-81 corridor Thursday.

A low pressure system over the Southeast U.S. could impact the region Friday night through Saturday night. Confidence remains low at this time as to the scale of impact. The later model guidance suggests some wintry precipitation moving into the region Friday night and Saturday morning, then a secondary low pressure system from the west bringing a chance for a mix of rain and snow showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The exact track of either or both of the low pressure systems remain highly uncertain.

The possibilities of a wintry impact range from a weak system suppressed far to our south with little to no precipitation across the region, to a major coastal low tracking either along the coast or out to sea. For now, we have low end chances for precipitation advertised throughout the weekend. We will monitor trends in the guidance throughout the week and gradually focus in on a solution as we move closer to the event.

For Sunday through Monday, it appears no matter what the track and outcome of the low pressure systems are, a milder and drier pattern appear to be in store with high pressure becoming established farther to the east in the U.S.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR ceilings FL040-080 will likely continue through much of the night and could occur at times through Tuesday in a moist northwest flow regime. There is a low chance (probably less than 20%) of brief MVFR conditions late tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly at MRB. It does seem like wind gusts should be diminishing for the night now, but will pick up again and gust to 15-20+ knots mid-morning (14-15Z) Tuesday.

VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday night through Friday night with NW flow becoming NE by late Thursday, generally at or below 10 knots.

MARINE. Northwesterly winds continue across the waters. There has been a a surge this evening with numerous (but generally brief) gusts up to 20-25 knots. It does appear the narrower waterways are beginning to stabilize nocturnally, confirming the brevity of the event. Will have to keep an eye on the wider waters for potential adjustments to the advisory, but will otherwise let the conditions described below prevail.

A weak disturbance will cross tonight, and with air temperatures cooling that component of mixing will not be as much of a factor. Therefore, anticipate more widespread/frequent gusts in excess of 20 knots from late this evening through Tuesday morning. The more sheltered waters of the middle and upper tidal Potomac River, Baltimore Harbor and the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay may not have gusts quite as high or frequent due to narrower trajectories over water, so have opted to leave them out of the advisory for now. Winds may see a brief uptick over all marine zones right after daybreak Tuesday before the wind field diminishes Tuesday afternoon.

A second weak disturbance will cross tomorrow evening. Although the attendant wind field will be weaker, more of a northerly channeling component to the low-level flow could result in gusts in excess of 20 knots over the wider waters of the Chesapeake Bay.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday night.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Tuesday for ANZ531- 532-539-540-542. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537- 541-543.

SYNOPSIS . DHOF NEAR TERM . ADS SHORT TERM . DHOF LONG TERM . KLW AVIATION . ADS/KLW/DHOF MARINE . ADS/KLW/DHOF

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NCDV2	9 mi	74 min		43°F	45°F		1010.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	30 mi	68 min		42°F	40°F		1011.2 hPa (+1.1)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD	32 mi	158 min	NNW 1.9				1010 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD	36 mi	68 min		43°F	42°F		1010.3 hPa (+1.2)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD	37 mi	74 min	N 15 G 19
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA	46 mi	74 min		44°F	42°F		1010.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD	48 mi	68 min	W 8.9 G 9.9	41°F	40°F		1011.2 hPa (+0.9)	30°F

Wind History for Washington, DC

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Last 24hr

S4

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W6 G11

W7 G11

W3 G9

NW8 G12

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NW10 G16

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NW6 G11

NW4 G7

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1 day ago

NW4 G7

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W1

NW3 G7

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W6 G10

W11 G17

NW8 G12

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SW1

2 days ago

NW3 G11

N4 G7

NE3 G7

E3 G6

NW3

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NW5 G8

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NW6 G11

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NW6 G11

NW5 G12

NW1 G4

NW4 G8

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA	11 mi	72 min	NW 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	43°F	28°F	58%	1011.8 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA	19 mi	73 min	NW 6	10.00 mi		42°F	31°F	66%	1012.5 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA	20 mi	72 min	WNW 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	42°F	28°F	59%	1011.5 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA	22 mi	73 min	NNW 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	44°F	32°F	64%	1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNYG

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

W5

Calm

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NW5

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S4

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N9

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N7 G16

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NW10 G20

1 day ago

Calm

W4

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E12

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N9

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Calm

NW5

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Calm

NW3

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Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Maryland

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Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Maryland

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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