Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Tobacco Village, MD

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A return to dry and seasonable weather this weekend.

- 2) Dry weather continues next week before a colder and more unsettled pattern ensues by Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A return to dry and seasonable weather this weekend.

Seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend along with dry conditions. NW winds will gust as high as 30 to 35 mph in the wake of the frontal passage late yesterday evening, before diminishing to 15 mph or less tonight.

On Sunday, shortwave ridging will build over the area, while at the surface, a lee-side trof develops and pushes east of the area during the evening. It will be a few degs warmer owing to higher heights and westerly downslope flow, but with noticeable less wind.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather continues next week before a colder and more unsettled pattern ensues by Friday.

Amplified flow within the northern stream will allow for a series of dry cold frontal passages across the area next week. After the first boundary pushes through late in the weekend, an additional system races through on Tuesday. These are moisture starved air masses so the only notable changes will be an increase in wind speeds and the reinforcement of drier air. Through the middle of the week, skies should largely be clear which would support abundant sunshine. Daily high temperatures will mainly be in the 60s, with 50s across the mountains. One exception would be on Tuesday which is the mildest day of the period as highs return to the low 70s. Nighttime conditions will be seasonably chilly owing to the dry air and lack of cloud cover. Most nights should favor low temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s, but with localized pockets of upper 20s to low 30s across sheltered mountain and river valeys. This may lead to some frost/freeze concerns where the growing season continues (most spots east of the Blue Ridge).

Toward the latter half of the next work week, global models continue to advertise a broad deepening trough approaching from the Upper Midwest. This eventually evolves into more of an omega block setup with building heights over the western states and troughing across the eastern Pacific. The global ensemble box-and-whisker plots show a decided drop in temperatures. Cold temperatures aloft underneath this upper low could even spread some rain or snow showers over the Alleghenies on Friday. Uncertainty remains high though, but a cooling trend certainly looks likely heading into Friday and next weekend.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Brisk NW winds 15G25kt and P6SM SCT050. Winds diminish tonight to 10kt or less and clouds dissipate. Not as breezy Sun with gusts up to 20 kt.

An extended period of VFR conditions should continue during the early to middle portions of next week. An initial cold front exiting the area late Sunday will yield breezy northwesterly winds on Monday as gusts rise to around 20 to 25 knots. Winds shift to southwesterly by Tuesday before another cold front ushers in another round of west- northwesterlies through mid-week.

MARINE

Brisk NW winds expected today with gusts up to around 30 kt, diminishing to 20-25 kt tonight. Winds finally drop below SCA Sunday afternoon. Have extended SCAs through Sunday.

Post-frontal winds on Monday will remain breezy in nature with gusts up to around 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are likely needed through Monday evening before winds drop off on Tuesday given a shift to southwesterly flow. A subsequent cold front moves through Tuesday evening which supports another shift to northwesterlies. While forecast gusts Wednesday are around 10 to 15 knots, these likely will be a bit higher than shown.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ530>534-537- 539>541-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ535-536-538- 542.