Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quantico, VA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Elevated fire danger and near-record warmth expected this week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated fire danger and near-record warmth expected this week.

Increasing temperatures will be the main story for the next week as highs reach at least the 80s through next weekend. Highs in the 90s are likely in parts of the area Wednesday through Saturday. Dew points in the 50s for most days will keep the heat risk at bay, but expecting several days to be particularly hot as we approach record warmth for April.

A cold front sags south into the area Monday afternoon and likely dissipates somewhere over the area by the evening. This could bring a few showers to the area, but any precipitation amounts will be light. It becomes noticeably breezy for a few hours Monday afternoon with the FROPA. Abundant cloud cover is likely what keeps our highs in the 80s.

Even though some subtle remnants of the front remain nearby through Thursday, the dry airmass likely prevents much convection from developing. Cannot completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon/evening hours Tuesday and Thursday. Most areas will remain dry through the week, with another cold front maybe bringing a round of showers/storms next Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the upcoming week. South to southwest winds will gust around 20-25 knots each afternoon through at least Wednesday. A cold front moving through the area on Monday could bring a few hours of gusts around 30 knots in the late afternoon.

MARINE
SCA conditions are expected to continue through Monday as a cold front moves through the area by Monday evening. Wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected, with a few hours of gusts near 30 knots possible Monday afternoon/evening.

Winds drop below SCA levels Monday night. Periods of SCA conditions are possible in southerly channeling each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
A strong upper-level ridge-building event will take place over the area for much of next week. This will yield well above average, and potentially record-breaking, temperatures for mid-April. There could be a 3 to 5 day span, at least, where temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This will be paired with very poor moisture return as well, with most days seeing min RH values drop into the 30s during the afternoons, especially in the valleys. Would not be shocked to see some days mix out even lower RH values into the mid to upper 20s. The upper slopes and ridges will likely remain higher, but still only in the 40s. The hot and dry conditions, combined with ongoing/rapidly worsening drought and gusty winds each day will likely necessitate at least Fire Danger Statements each day through Thursday. A Special Weather Statement has already been issued for Monday for breezy and dry conditions along with low fuel moisture. However, there may be a few showers late Monday morning and Monday afternoon. This may cause locally higher relative humidity so the Special Weather Statement may be modified as conditions warrant.

Late Thursday into Friday will be the next chance for precipitation, albeit not a great one. A weak front may move through the region, but this part of the forecast is riddled with uncertainty at this point, and there is still a fair amount of guidance that keeps us hot and dry through next weekend as well.

Lastly, wanted to make a note on green up. We are starting to green up east of the higher terrain, but latest VIIRS geocolor imagery still has a fair amount of brown over the higher terrain itself.
These areas are likely still very vulnerable and should be monitored very closely over this next week.

CLIMATE
Many daily records are likely to be broken this upcoming workweek, for both high temperatures and warm low temperatures. Some stations could tie or set their all-time high temperature and warm low temperature records for the month of April.

April 14 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 91F (1960) 65F (2014)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1960) 63F (2014)
Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1941) 65F (2018)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 90F (1960) 67F (2018)
Martinsburg (MRB) 87F (1960) 62F (2014)
Charlottesville (CHO) 90F (1945) 67F (1899)
Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1941) 65F (1977)
Hagerstown (HGR) 86F (2024) 64F (2014)

April 15 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 89F (1941) 65F (2023)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 87F (1967) 62F (2023)
Baltimore (BWI) 88F (1941) 65F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 92F (2024) 67F (1960)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (1941) 63F (1967)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (2024) 68F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 91F (1941) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 85F (1960) 61F (2023)

April 16 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 92F (2002) 65F (2017)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (2002) 63F (2017)
Baltimore (BWI) 90F (2012) 66F (1941)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 91F (2012) 65F (2012)
Martinsburg (MRB) 90F (2002) 63F (2017)
Charlottesville (CHO) 92F (1976) 67F (1941)
Annapolis(NAK) 89F (2017) 70F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 88F (2002) 62F (2002)

April 17 Location RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW Washington-National (DCA) 95F (2002) 65F (2002)
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (2002) 59F (2024)
Baltimore (BWI) 93F (2002) 66F (1896)
Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 95F (2002) 66F (1976)
Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (2002) 60F (1941)
Charlottesville (CHO) 94F (1976) 65F (1976)
Annapolis(NAK) 90F (1976) 68F (1994)
Hagerstown (HGR) 90F (2002) 64F (2002)

All-Time April Record Highs: Washington-National (DCA) 95F 4/17/2002, 4/18/1976, 4/23/1960 4/27/1915 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F 4/6/2010, 4/17/2002, 4/25/1960 Baltimore (BWI) 94F 4/25/1960, 4/23/1960, 4/20/1941, 4/18/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F 4/26/1990, 4/22/1985 Martinsburg (MRB) 96F 4/21/1941 Charlottesville (CHO) 98F 4/24-25/1925 Annapolis(NAK) 95F 4/20/1941 Hagerstown (HGR) 94F 4/6/2010, 4/18/1976, 4/26/1915

All-Time April Record Warm-Lows: Washington-National (DCA) 70F 4/29/2017 Washington-Dulles (IAD) 68F 4/27/2011 Baltimore (BWI) 70F 4/19/1896 Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 76F 4/26/1990 Martinsburg (MRB) 69F 4/19/2025 Charlottesville (CHO) 72F 4/26/1915 Annapolis(NAK) 70F 4/28/1994, 4/16/1994, 4/18/1896 Hagerstown (HGR) 69F 4/27/2009

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ530>534- 536>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ535.