Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:45PM Sunday December 15, 2019 3:41 PM EST (20:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 10:18AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1240 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft.
ANZ500 1240 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will briefly build overhead today before low pressure impacts the area Monday. The cold front associated with this low will pass through Tuesday. Small craft advisories likely will be required Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, MD
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location: 38.49, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 151946 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 246 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving front will become nearly stationary across the area overnight into Monday. A low pressure system crossing the mid Atlantic region Tuesday will drag a cold front across the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday..

This afternoon high pressure is off the SE coast. Meanwhile, a cold front is slowly drifting towards our area from the NW and is expected to become nearly stationary across our area overnight. The rest of the day will remain dry however clouds will be on the increase tonight. Temps in the mid to upper 50s this afternoon will drop to the low to mid 30s north overnight, with mid 30s to near 40 south. Some patchy fog is expected early Monday morning, especially over southside and inland portions of NE NC.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday .

A tricky forecast for Monday as the position of the nearly stationary front will have implications for both precip and temperatures. Precip moves in north of the front Monday morning. While most of this precip will be rain, there is a chance for some mixed precip across far northern portions of the VA piedmont and also over the MD eastern shore. QPF amounts will be light and surface temps of 33-35 degrees in these areas will likely result in little to no accumulation. High temps will be highly variable, with low to mid 40s north of wherever the front positions itself, and upper 50s to lower 60s south of the front.

Monday night the front will make a slow progression to the north as a warm front. A low pressure system will track from the TN valley to the Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday. Temperatures will remain steady or climb slightly Monday night into early Tuesday. Low temps Tuesday morning range from the lower 40s north to mid 50s south. Rain chances increase Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front that will cross the western portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon and exit eastern portions of the area by late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Rainfall amounts on Tuesday generally in the 0.3 to 0.75 inch range. High temps will be mild as the region sits in the warm sector for much of the day. Expect upper 50s north to mid and upper 60s south.

Conditions improve quickly after the frontal passage as high pressure builds into the region overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Modest CAA and clearing skies should drop temps to the lower 20s NW to around 30 SE by Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 230 PM EST Sunday .

High pressure remains in control Wednesday through Friday. This will result in dry weather and slightly below normal temps during this period. Low temps Thursday and Friday in the 20s, near 30 at the coast, and high temps in the 40s. Overnight model runs had a coastal developing over the SE and riding up the Atlantic coast next weekend. 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF today have a low developing over the eastern gulf and then slowly drifting off the SE coast over the weekend, while the CMC still tracks the low up the Atlantic coast. With the high uncertainty this far out, just went with low chance pops for next weekend.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 115 PM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18z TAF period. RIC and SBY have a chance at briefly reaching MVFR conditions after 15z Monday due to cloud bases around 2500 feet. W winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will weaken and become light and variable at around 3 kt overnight. Higher clouds will increase by Monday morning and continue through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK . SBY has the potential to see light showers and MVFR conditions Monday night but otherwise VFR conditions expected with overcast skies. Tuesday has the potential for degraded flight conditions due to low clouds and rain across all airports ahead of a cold front which passes through the region Tuesday evening. High pressure builds Wednesday with VFR conditions returning.

MARINE. As of 235 PM EST Sunday .

Latest weather analysis reveals strong (~970mb) sfc low pressure over Atlantic Canada this afternoon. To the west, ~1020mb sfc high pressure continues to build across the region from the Ohio/Tenn River Valleys. Resultant pressure gradient has allowed for marginal SCA winds over the Chesapeake Bay and central/northern coastal waters, though winds are diminishing with gradient slackening as high builds farther east over the region. Waves generally ~2ft, seas 3-4 ft (4-5ft far N). Will keep SCA going over northern coastal waters through 7pm, with seas to slowly subside late this aftn.

High pressure slides off the Southeast coast tonight with a backdoor cold front dropping across the waters from the N. Much of the 12z/15 model suite seem to be in fair to good agreement with respect to handling of winds as the front settles south over the area Monday, w/low pressure sliding along the boundary toward the local area from the mid-south into Monday night through Tuesday. Typical minor timing differences remain during this period, but in general, ENE wind of 5-10kt is expected N of the boundary, with 10-15kt SSW wind to the S of the boundary. Seas should be 2-3ft while the boundary is over the area, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay.

By late morning Tuesday into Tue aftn, SW wind could briefly increase to 15-20kt for the lower Bay, Currituck Sound and ocean zones, which would allow for 3-4ft seas and 2-3ft waves in the lower Bay and result in some SCA winds Tue aftn. However, predominate SCA conditions not anticipated until the cold front drops across the waters Tuesday evening, with modest cold air advection occurring Tuesday night with a NNW wind increasing to 20-25kt. A second, stronger surge of CAA comes with secondary cold front (and another round of CAA) Wednesday night, w/W-NW winds increasing to ~25-30 kt. Overall, SCAs are likely for Tuesday night through early Thursday, with perhaps a lull during the day Wednesday before secondary surge of cold air arrives Wed night. High pressure returns Thursday into Friday, with improving boating conditions.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652.

SYNOPSIS . CMF NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . CMF LONG TERM . CMF AVIATION . RMM MARINE . MAM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi60 min WSW 6 G 13 54°F 44°F1015 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi36 min W 9.7 G 9.7 51°F 1016.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi54 min W 12 G 19 55°F 47°F1015.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi60 min W 9.9 G 13 50°F 46°F1015.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi54 min WNW 12 G 15
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi42 min W 12 G 14 52°F 46°F1016 hPa (+1.5)31°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 32 mi36 min WSW 12 G 14 51°F 47°F1016.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 33 mi132 min W 8.9 55°F 1013 hPa29°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi36 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 45°F1015.9 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi60 min 52°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi54 min 51°F 1014.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi60 min W 14 G 16 54°F 45°F1015.8 hPa
NCDV2 45 mi60 min WSW 8.9 G 12 56°F 46°F1014.5 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi47 minW 8 G 1310.00 miA Few Clouds54°F33°F47%1015.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD17 mi1.8 hrsSW 12 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds55°F34°F45%1015 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD21 mi67 minW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F32°F44%1015.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD23 mi52 minW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F32°F41%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN3NE4NE5NE4NE6N7E84CalmN6NW3E7CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE45
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6NW5N3CalmCalmNE4CalmN4N6CalmN6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:43 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:09 AM EST     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:21 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:46 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.100.20.50.80.90.80.60.40.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-00.40.91.51.81.91.71.41.10.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:03 AM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:51 AM EST     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     0.76 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.30.30.1-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.20.50.70.80.60.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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