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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 946 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Friday...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ500 946 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will continue to slide offshore tonight. Another frontal system and area of low pressure push through the area Friday into Saturday. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. High pressure returns to the waters by the middle of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday night due to southerly channeling.

FXUS61 KAKQ 010228 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 928 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will push well offshore tonight into Friday.
Meanwhile, low pressure tracks through the Ohio Valley later Friday and Friday night, bringing a chance for rain into the local area. Another chance for rain develops later Saturday into Sunday as a weak area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. Mainly dry and cooler weather is expected next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 930 PM EST Thursday...

High pressure is centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. Aloft, a low amplitude ridge is building in over the East Coast with flow over the local area out of the WSW. Skies will remain mostly clear through the first half of the night.
Mid to high level clouds will increase closer to sunrise as shortwave energy approaches ahead of the system set to impact the region tomorrow/tomorrow night. Temps will be chilly, but warmer than the last few nights with lows in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Thursday...

By Friday morning, the center of high pressure will be well offshore. Through the day Friday, low pressure will slowly move into the OH Valley. Friday now looks mostly dry in the FA with a warm front to the south and the stronger shortwave energy going N of the FA. Now have Chc PoPs for N and W portions of the FA later in the afternoon and evening, Schc from RIC to Hampton Roads, and dry in the far SE. HRRR guidance indicates minimal QPF, perhaps only a trace to a few hundredths. Friday night and Saturday the warm front will slowly push N as the sfc low progresses into the Great Lakes.
Chc PoPs will linger near the coast (especially SE) Friday night and Sat morning. As the warm front pushes toward I-64, the PoPs will increase. Highest PoPs are 55-65% S and E of Richmond late Saturday evening and Saturday night. Sunday is still uncertain regarding precip. Consensus does have a stronger shortwave swinging through the Mid-Atlantic, but timing is not quite nailed down. For now, maintaining Chc PoPs through the day Sunday.

There will be a warming trend through the weekend as thicknesses increase with the building ridge aloft and the warm front lifting N.
Highs Friday will range from the low 50s in the NW to the low 60s in the SE. Saturday will be mild with highs in the 60s and may perhaps touch 70 in the far SE. Sunday will be similar, though a couple degrees cooler. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 40s in the NW to the upper 50s in the SE. Saturday night's lows will be around 50 in the NW to the upper 50s SE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 245 PM EST Thursday...

The pattern may potentially still be unsettled Monday depending on the timing of the strong shortwave pivoting through. Based on current guidance, have PoPs tapering off Mon with SChc PoPs lingering near the coast through the evening. The 12z Global guidance does indicate a strong sfc low and upper trough impacting the region mid-week. However, will leave out any precip chances for now given lack of support for any from blended guidance and the ensembles. Temps will follow a cooling trend and return to seasonal norms. Highs Monday will be in the upper 50s to around 60, low-mid 50s on Tues, then upper 40s-low 50s Wed. Lows will range through the 30s.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 630 PM EST Thursday...

VFR prevails through a majority 00z/01 TAF period. SCT high clouds over the area this evening will briefly clear over the next couple of hours. High clouds then return from the W overnight ahead of our next weather system. Clouds will lower in the afternoon, though any flight restrictions should remain W of the area until after the 00z period. Sub-VFR CIGs may try to sneak in just west of RIC ~22z-00z/01. A few light rain showers will be possible beginning tomorrow afternoon, with better chances by the late afternoon/evening across western portions of the area. Winds will be southerly and generally 5kt tonight, increasing to 5 to 10kt tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: MVFR to potentially IFR CIGs are possible tomorrow night into early Saturday morning as well as continued chances for light rain. CIGs briefly improve Saturday late morning- afternoon (though may linger around MVFR), before another round of MVFR to IFR CIGs (as well as additional rain chances)
Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Unsettled conditions likely continue through Sunday before a drying trend early next week.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EST Thursday...

Generally quiet marine conditions into the weekend. High pressure is currently centered southeast of the area, over the western Atlantic Ocean, and expected to remain there into the weekend. Winds will be S to SW through Saturday. Winds will mainly be 5-10 kt, but may uptick to 15-20 kt each evening through Saturday. A weak cold front will move into the area and stall. Winds will decrease as the front moves in, but winds may turn ENE ~ 15 kt off the Maryland coast Saturday night into Sunday morning, north of the stalling front.
Through the weekend, seas are expected to be 2-3 ft and waves in the Chesapeake Bay will be 1-2 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Woolford
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Thu -- 12:41 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:46 AM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:40 PM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland, Tide feet

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:46 AM EST     0.32 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:51 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:25 PM EST     0.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:03 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:40 PM EST     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots

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