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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 217 Pm Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 knots.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 knots.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.

PZZ500 217 Pm Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
high pressure off of the pacific northwest coast and low pressure near the california coast will maintain northerly winds over the coastal waters. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the great basin. Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. NEw storm system approaches next weekend.

FXUS66 KMTR 112240 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 240 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1206 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

Look for quiet weather this week with mild days and cool night. A pattern change takes hold by early next week with a return to wet and unsettled conditions.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

A weakening sfc front to the north will continue to move south and wash out over the region this evening and early tonight.
Previous forecast had a mention of showers over the coastal waters with patchy drizzle along the coast, but that has been removed from the forecast. An isolated shower is still possible over the outer waters, but the weakening front is moving through with even less fanfare. In addition to the front, onshore flow will kick in bringing some low clouds and patchy fog tonight. Some of the fog will be dense across the N Bay Valleys and SF Bay. There is a about a 15-30% for visby to be less than 1 mile. Not expecting a dense fog adv at this time, but will watch closely.

Tuesday will be dry and mild.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

The long term forecast will begin with a period of offshore flow thanks to an developing upper low moving S through Nevada. As the upper low moves farther S and E Wednesday the Bay Area be positioned under upper level ridging. The ridging will persist through at least Saturday. As a result, a warming trend will develop leading to above normal temperatures. Latest ECMWF EFI continues to advertise higher confidence in above normal temperatures over the Bay Area and Central Coast. The warmest days will be focused Thur- Sat with Saturday being the warmest.
Tue/Wed will be close to seasonal averages with max temps in the 60s. Overnight lows will be cool and in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Thur- Sat max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s(warmest interior).
During this period a few places will be approaching record temperatures. What's the probability of records? Lets look at San Jose for example: Fri 88% of being greater than the record of 68 deg, Sat 88% of being greater than the record of 70 deg, Sun 13% of being greater than the record of 72 deg.

After the warm up the next question is, when will it rain again? For several days now lots of focus has been put on a robust upper level jet moving across the Pacific the middle of the month.
Latest forecast still shows a decent jet aloft, but it is now looking a little more "wavy" or amplified than Pacific basin.
Well, at least next weekend into the follow week. So what does this mean? Still looks like a notable pattern shift with unsettled weather developing and lasting through the second half of December. Still too far out for specific details, but a minimum we can confidently say precip is on the distant horizon. As for the actual forecast, precip does return to the forecast late Saturday and lingers into early next week. Looking farther down the road, both the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have CA in above normal rainfall chances. Additionally, extended hazard outlook from CPC shows a 20% chc of heavy rain for CA Dec 19-21 and Dec 23-25. Stay tuned...



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with just a few passing high clouds. The return of stratus is likely late this evening and into the overnight with MVFR (or lower) ceilings, possible fog in the North Bay. Conditions return to VFR by mid-to- late morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR likely to prevail trough late tonight with MVFR ceilings thereafter. Guidance is fairly confident for the return by around 09Z and lasting through midmorning. Ceilings then lift after ~17Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO although the stratus may impact the approach 2-4 hours before the terminal.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to prevail through evening with higher confidence in the return of MVFR/IFR ceilings as soon as 04Z.
Conditions improve shortly after the end of the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 907 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast and low pressure off the California coast will maintain northerly winds over the coastal waters. Gusty winds build over the southern waters early this week as an upper level low deepens into the Great Basin. The tail end of a weak system passing by will bring a slight chance of showers over the waters late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Winds diminish into the later half of the week as high pressure builds once again. New storm system approaches next weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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Napa
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:14 AM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM PST     2.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:44 AM PST     7.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:38 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:19 PM PST     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Napa, Napa River, Carquinez Strait, California, Tide feet

Wingo
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:10 AM PST     4.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:24 AM PST     2.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:40 AM PST     6.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:39 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:38 PM PST     -1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wingo, Sonoma Creek, San Pablo Bay, California, Tide feet

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