Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:47PM Thursday October 1, 2020 6:55 PM EDT (22:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:07PMMoonset 5:34AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 436 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of this afternoon..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will pass through tonight. Canadian high pressure will build overhead for Friday and Saturday. Low pressure and its associated cold front will approach the waters Sunday before passing through Sunday night into Monday. A small craft advisory may be required Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 011936 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach from the northwest through this evening and slowly cross the area tonight through Friday morning. High pressure will settle over the region for the first part of the weekend bringing cool and dry weather to the local area. Another fast moving system will track through the area late Sunday into Monday morning.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 330 PM Thursday .

Latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure over eastern Canada with a cold front dipping south through New England and then extending SW from there down the spine of the Appalachians. Aloft the flow is WSW out ahead of the next upper trough centered over the western Great Lakes and central Canada. With the front becoming nearly parallel to the upper flow this aftn/eve, expect the forward progression to slow down, with just a slight chance for a shower before 6 pm over Fluvanna/Louisa County. As the font slows down, models are showing a weak wave of low pressure developing along the front to the lee of the southern Appalachians this evening as the upper system approaches. Overall the system is still not overly moist, but trends are for decent PoPs into the NW 1/2 of the local area tonight, with likely PoPs (55-70%) forecast to the NW of RIC this evening, then chance Pops (25-50%) shifting E to the northern Neck, lower MD and the Peninsulas south to about Emporia later tonight/early Fri. Have QPF amounts up to 0.25" NW of RIC, with limited amounts of a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch in the other areas mentioned. Farther SE, PoPs drop off to only 15-25% overnight (and remaining dry over most of NE NC). Becoming mostly cloudy west this evening and east overnight, but then some clearing occurs across the far west around sunrise. Lows tonight range from near 50F NW to around 60F SE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 330 PM Thursday .

There may be an isolated shower or two through late morning mainly on the eastern shore and along the Bay with skies clearing by late morning in the W but delayed until the aftn farther E (did increase clouds a bit given the low level flow turning NNE which will bring additional low level moisture from the Bay/Ocean). Cooler behind the front on Fri with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70F.

High pressure builds toward the local area Fri night and then over the area on Saturday . allowing for mainly clear and comfortably cool conditions. Lows in the 40s over much of the local area, with 50s along the coast Friday night. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70F on Saturday. Mostly clear Sat night with lows again mainly in the 40s inland and in the 50s at the immediate coast and over the SE where clouds may increase late.

Still some model uncertainties to deal with as we head into Sunday with respect to low pressure developing along the NC coast and a digging upper trough over the Great Lakes/OH Valley. The consensus of the models keeps the coastal low offshore during Sunday as the upper trough dives to the SE. Some moisture from the sfc low may still get drawn northward into SE VA and coastal NE NC where we'll carry some chc Pops (25-40%), especially in the afternoon. Remaining dry elsewhere but with increasing clouds. Highs Sunday in the mid 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 PM EDT Thursday .

12z GFS/GEFS remain at odds with the EC/GEM solutions for Sunday night into Monday with respect to the strong upper trough the slides east and across the local area. EC/GEM are slower and deeper with the upper trough, bringing it through the local area between 12-18z Monday. The GFS swings it through about 6 hours sooner. Both solutions have rain across the area Sunday night into Monday morning and then clearing out Monday afternoon. However, the EC/GEM are a bit more bullish with pcpn amounts. The GFS keeps all but the far northern portion of the FA dry, while the EC/GEM would bring 0.1-0.3" of rain to most of the area. For now, have chc PoPs (25-50%) for much of the area Sunday night into Monday morning (lowest SW), then clearing out Monday afternoon. Lows Sunday night from nr 50 NW to nr 60 SE. Highs Monday in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tuesday/Wednesday of next week should end up being dry and comfortable with highs in the upr 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upr 40s to around 60. The next system may impact the area next Wed night or Thursday.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 200 PM EDT Thursday .

Clouds will increase late this aftn as the next system approaches from the NW, then at least a chance for showers NW/N of RIC tonight into Fri AM. The best chance for pcpn for the terminals is at RIC where MVFR flight restrictions look likely late tonight/early Fri. Less of a chance for rain at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, but as winds shift to the NNE behind the front, a period of lower CIGs is still likely Fri AM between 08-15Z along with some gusty NNE winds of 20-25kt near the coast.

Outlook . Dry/VFR Fri aftn through midday Sunday. Next chc for showers will be Sun aftn and especially Sun night/Mon AM.

MARINE. As of 330 PM EDT Thursday .

This afternoon, a cold front was centered from the VA Piedmont northeast to nrn portions of the Delmarva Peninsula. Winds are light and variable (w/ some sea breeze component) over the waters with seas of 2-3 ft and ~1 ft waves on the Ches Bay. The aforementioned cold front crosses the waters from NW to SE from late this evening through early Friday morning.

Behind the front, winds will become NNW and increase to around 20-25 kt on the Ches Bay/ocean, with 15-20 kt winds on the Lower James River and Currituck Sound. Winds will likely reach 15-20 kt on the upper rivers for a ~6 hour period immediately following the FROPA. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all coastal zones, the Ches Bay, Currituck Sound, and all of the rivers. SCAs go into effect at 02z/10 PM for the bay/rivers and 05-08z/1-4 AM for the ocean (earliest N/latest S). Still think that the strongest winds will occur during the 06z-14z timeframe on Fri. Gusts to 30 kt are likely on the bay/ocean, with 25 kt gusts expected at times for the rivers/Currituck Sound. Winds slowly diminish from N to S during the day on Friday, as winds turn more to the N. Wind speeds are expected to drop below advisory criteria by early Fri aftn in most areas (except for perhaps the Currituck Sound, where 20 kt gusts could linger through late aftn). Seas are progged to build to 3-5 ft N/4-5 ft S by late Fri morning (highest 20 nm offshore). 4-5 ft seas could linger across the srn coastal waters through late aftn. Currently have SCAs ending by 17z/1 PM for all zones except for the coastal waters S of Cape Charles and Currituck Sound.

High pressure builds back toward the area Friday night before becoming centered near the waters by late Saturday. There will be a secondary CAA surge late Fri night-early Sat AM, which will allow winds to increase to ~15 kt sustained on the bay/ocean by 06z Sat. Will continue to monitor this period for a potential SCA on the Ches Bay, but local wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds are only ~10% attm (for the bay). Otherwise, marine conditions will generally be sub-SCA from Fri night through the weekend. An area of low pressure potentially impacts the region by Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ656- 658.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM SHORT TERM . JDM/LKB LONG TERM . JDM/LKB AVIATION . JDM/LKB MARINE . ERI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi56 min Calm G 1 74°F 71°F1012.8 hPa (-0.0)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi56 min SSE 7 G 7 1013.2 hPa (+0.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi38 min NE 12 G 14 70°F 71°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi56 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 70°F 72°F1012.4 hPa (+0.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi56 min S 5.1 G 6 72°F 70°F1012.8 hPa (-0.0)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi56 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 69°F 71°F1014 hPa (-0.0)53°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi56 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi146 min E 4.1 1012 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi56 min 70°F 53°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi56 min N 2.9 G 4.1 72°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi56 min ESE 9.9 G 11 70°F 69°F1012.6 hPa (-0.0)
NCDV2 48 mi56 min Calm G 1.9 73°F 72°F1011.5 hPa (-0.4)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi56 min N 8.9 G 9.9 69°F 71°F1013.6 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi61 minN 09.00 miFair72°F60°F69%1012.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi64 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds70°F61°F73%1012.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi66 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F57°F64%1014.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi61 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F60°F78%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS54S3S4S4S5SE4CalmSE3--Calm3W4N7NW7NW6NW7N7N4N5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:40 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:09 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.41.822.121.71.41.10.80.70.60.81.21.61.9221.81.51.20.90.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM EDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:23 PM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.30.50.50.50.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.20.50.60.60.50.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.