Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:29PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 4:48 AM EDT (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:09AMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 437 Am Edt Wed Apr 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm edt this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Wed Apr 1 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move out into the western atlantic today while strengthening. The low will then meander off the coast on Thursday before retreating eastward Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will slowly build in from the midwest through the end of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 010759 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will continue to intensify as it moves off the North Carolina coast this morning. High pressure returns to the area Thursday and Friday as low pressure lingers well offshore.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday .

The latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a vigorous trough moving across the Mid-Atlantic region, with rapidly deepening low pressure off the NC Outer Banks. Diamond Shoals buoy SE of Cape Hatteras observed a SLP of 988.5mb at 250 am EDT. Windy conditions are occurring along the coast with a sustained NE wind of 20-30 mph with gusts ~40 mph, and 25-35 mph with gusts to 45-55 mph for Outer Banks Currituck and VA Beach S of Rudee Inlet. Rain continues for ern VA/NE NC, but rates have tapered off over the past few hours. Current QPE ranges from ~0.25" from the NW Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore, 0.4-0.6" for central VA, and 0.75-1.25" for far SE VA/NE NC, with a localized area of 0.25" or less from South Hill to Emporia, and into Northampton NC. Cool early this morning, with temperatures ranging from around 40F N/NW to around 50F SE.

The strengthening low will result in breezy to windy conditions continuing along the coast this morning. The wind will become N as the low moves offshore, with speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph for Outer Banks Currituck, with 20-30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph elsewhere for coastal SE VA, NE NC along the sounds, and even the Atlantic coast of the VA Ern Shore. Gradually improving conditions area expected later this morning into the aftn as the low pulls farther offshore and drier air arrives from the NW. Mostly cloudy to overcast this morning, and then becoming partly sunny by this aftn. Highs Wednesday in the mid/upper 50s, with low 50s along the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. Rain will gradually end this morning across SE VA/NE NC. Any additional rainfall will be limited at this time, and generally 0.25" or less.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday .

High pressure builds in from the NW tonight into Thursday as low pressure lingers offshore. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Partly to mostly sunny Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s (mid 50s along the coast). A NW wind will range from 10-15 mph inland, to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph over the Ern Shore. High pressure remains NW of the region Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lingers offshore. Numerical models depict a shortwave trough rotating around the upper low later Thursday night into Friday. This will likely result in variably cloudy/mostly cloudy conditions across the ern half of the area Friday, with a partly to mostly sunny sky farther inland. Lows Thursday night range from the upper 30s to low 40s, followed by highs Friday ranging from the mid/upper 50s over the Ern Shore to the low/mid 60s over the Piedmont.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday .

Much of the weekend is expected to be dry, with upper level ridging over the northeast and surface high pressure in control. The upper level flow flattens out by the end of the weekend, and a weak front will approach from the west and cross the area during the day on Monday. Doesn't appear there will be much moisture along and ahead of this front, so just slight chance pops for late Sunday through Monday. Unsettled period continues for Tuesday into Wednesday as another system approaches from the west, with slight chance to chance pops in for both days.

Temps this weekend will be highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Temps moderate for the first half of next week with high temps in the 70s and low temps ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday .

Low pressure is strengthening off the Carolina coast as of 06z. The wind is NE 20-25kt with gusts to 30-35kt at ORF/ECG, and generally 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt elsewhere. Rain persists over ern VA/NE NC and is currently heaviest at ORF, with vsby ranging from 2-3sm. Cigs are primarily MVFR and ranging from 1.0-1.5kft. The low will continue to intensify as in moves offshore early this morning. Rain will continue across SE VA/NE NC, and will be heaviest at ORF/ECG with vsby of 2-4sm. Cigs potentially fall to IFR through 09-10z, with gradual improvement thereafter, and then VFR conditions prevailing after 13-15z. The wind will gradually become northerly this morning and remain 20-25kt with gusts to 30-35kt and ORF/ECG, and a few gusts to 40kt are possible. Elsewhere, expect the wind to remain 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt. Clouds scatter later this aftn, with partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions by tonight, along with a 5-10kt NW wind.

High pressure builds in from the NW Thursday and Friday as low pressure lingers offshore. High pressure largely prevails Saturday/Sunday, with a weak trough bringing a slight chc of showers early next week.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday .

A rapidly deepening area of ~988 mb low pressure was located just east of Cape Hatteras and moving eastward early this morning. High pressure was located from the Hudson Bay to the wrn Gulf Coast. NE winds have increased to 25-35 kt over most of the marine area (highest S of the VA-NC border). Frequent gusts of 35-40 kt were occurring over the nrn coastal waters, Lower Ches Bay, and Lower James River. Several gusts of 40-45 kt have been observed over the ocean S of Cape Charles, with even a few gusts to 50 kt at Duck Pier. Marine headlines remain as is, with a Storm Warning in effect for the southernmost coastal zone and Gale Warnings in effect for the remainder of the ocean, Lower Ches Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Elsewhere (upper bay/upper rivers), SCAs are in effect. All Gale/Storm Warnings run through 18-20z this aftn. Seas have built to 8-10 ft N/10-13 ft S. The High Surf Advisory has been expanded to include the entire Atlantic coast of VA (through 00z this evening . while still running through tonight for VA Beach/Ern Currituck).

Winds turn more to the NNE by late morning before slowly diminishing and turning more to the N by late aftn as the low moves well offshore of the local area and the pressure gradient relaxes some. Frequent gusts of 35-40 kt will continue through late morning-early aftn in most areas under the Gale Warning, with gusts up to 45 kt possible in the coastal waters from Cape Charles to the VA-NC border. A few gusts up to 50 kt will continue to be possible across the NE NC coastal waters through mid-late morning, with frequent gale gusts likely through much of the day today. Will likely continue to see a few gusts to 35 kt (mainly at elevated sites) across the middle/upper Ches Bay through the morning but not enough duration to warrant a Gale Warning. The Storm Warning will likely be able to be converted to a Gale Warning by late morning. The Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of Currituck County/VA Beach through the day today (for gusts up to 45-50 mph).

Seas remain 7-11 ft N and 9-14 ft S through today before falling to 6-9 ft by late tonight. High pressure slowly builds in from the NW before becoming centered over the area by late Saturday as the strong low lingers offshore and upper troughing remains over the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast CONUS coast. The wind will mainly be NW from tonight-Fri. Nocturnal CAA surges tonight and Thu night (w/ a slightly weaker CAA surge possible Fri night) will allow winds to increase to ~25 kt (sustained) late Wed night and again late Thu night. Winds may diminish a bit during the day/evening on Thu, but will likely remain near/just above SCA thresholds over the bay/ocean. That is the reasoning behind the extension of the SCAs to the end of the 4th period (10z/6 AM Fri) for the nrn Ches Bay (despite the brief decrease in winds Wed evening). All warnings will need to be converted to SCAs (likely through at least Fri AM) when gusts fall below gale criteria later today. Seas will likely remain elevated (5-7 ft on average) through Friday due to swell with the low lingering offshore. Winds finally diminish below SCA thresholds by Saturday as high pressure builds over the waters. However, guidance is hinting at another uptick in seas this weekend (again due to swell from the offshore low).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday .

Moderately strong NE winds have allowed tidal anomalies to rapidly increase across the Ches Bay, with anomalies of 2.5-3 ft above normal in several locations. Low pressure off the Outer Banks of NC will continue to deepen as it tracks eastward today, allowing winds to slowly turn more to the NNE-N. Coastal Flood Advisories either remain in effect for almost all areas adjacent to the Mid/Lower Ches Bay, James River, and Atlantic Ocean through the high tide this aftn/evening. Upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning for areas in/around Lewisetta/Windmill Point, as a nearly 2.5 ft anomaly will be enough for these locations to exceed moderate flood thresholds by 0.1-0.2 ft. Water levels at most other locations in the advisory area will see water levels well into the minor flood range (with a few locations likely touching moderate flood thresholds).

In addition, minor flooding will likely continue through the high tide cycle Thursday morning. Will hold off on extending advisories for now (since water levels may fail to reach minor flood thresholds in some locations).

CLIMATE. March 2020 temperature ranks:

4th warmest at RIC (54.8F), #1 1945 (58.5F) 4th warmest at ORF (57.0F), #1 1945 (59.5F) 8th warmest at SBY (50.7F), #1 1945 (56.2F) 4th warmest at ECG (58.0F), #1 1945 (61.5F)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ025. NC . High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ102. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ017-102. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA . Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ089- 090-093-096-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ084- 095-097-098-100-523-525. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ098. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ078- 085-086. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ075- 077. MARINE . Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-652-654- 656. Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJZ LONG TERM . LKB AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . ERI CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi55 min NNE 12 G 18 44°F 54°F1007 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi55 min NNE 17 G 22 1007.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi61 min NE 16 G 19 44°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi55 min NE 13 G 19 43°F 53°F1006.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi55 min ENE 17 G 24 42°F 53°F1005.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi49 min NNE 19 G 21 43°F 51°F1008.6 hPa (-1.8)34°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi55 min ENE 8.9 G 15
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi37 min N 21 G 27 43°F 52°F1005.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi139 min NE 4.1 1008 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi55 min 44°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi55 min 43°F 1008.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi55 min ENE 15 G 24 44°F 55°F1005.9 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi55 min N 6 G 8.9 43°F 56°F1006.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi151 min NE 4.1 G 8 42°F 52°F1009.4 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi64 minNE 710.00 miOvercast43°F35°F76%1007.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi57 minNE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1006.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi45 minNNE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy42°F37°F85%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:54 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:29 PM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.30.30.40.71.11.51.71.81.71.51.310.80.60.50.50.60.811.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:27 AM EDT     -0.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.22 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.