Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 7:41 AM EDT (11:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:31PMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 607 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt...becoming W with gusts to 35 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Numerous showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the afternoon. Rain through the night.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 607 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will pass through the waters today and high pressure will build to the west through through Thursday before settling to our south Friday. Low pressure will pass through the waters this weekend. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 211107 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 707 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front crosses the region today. High pressure builds across the area tonight through Friday. Low pressure crosses the region over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday .

The current GOES WV imagery shows a deep trough digging across the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley, with some evidence of upper jet enhancement over the Eastern Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence Valley. At the surface, 1005mb low pressure is located near the MD Panhandle, with a strong cold front trailing to the SW across the Appalachians. The local area remains in the warm sector early this morning, with mild southerly flow and temperatures ranging through the 50s for much of the area. The warm sector is not particularly moist, with dewpoints in the 40s for many locations, although there are some dewpoints in the low/mid 50s over coastal SE VA/NE NC.

The cold front will advance quickly eastward this morning reaching central VA by early afternoon, and then it is expected to push off the coast by early evening. Given minimal surface moisture, coverage of any showers/tstms is expected to be limited, with the best coverage expected over the Eastern Shore where likely PoPs are forecast. Elsewhere, PoPs range from 20% over the Piedmont, to 30- 40% from central VA to SE VA and NE NC. Despite limited surface moisture, some strong to severe tstms are possible with strong height falls, colder temperatures aloft, and steep lapse rates. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has upgraded to a slight risk for the Eastern Shore and coastal SE VA, with much of the remainder of the area in a marginal risk, with the exception of the Piedmont. QPF will be limited given fast storm motion and minimal moisture, with most areas having less than 0.1", and 0.1-0.25" over the Eastern Shore. Forecast highs today are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Becoming windy today with a westerly wind of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday .

Any lingering showers quickly move offshore this evening as the front moves off the coast, and strong high pressure builds in from the W. Remaining breezy along the coast, especially during the evening. Temperatures will plummet overnight into early Thursday morning. Forecast lows range from the low 30s W, to the upper 30s/low 40s along the coast. There is the potential for a minimal freeze, 1-2hr of temperatures of 30-32F over the Piedmont. However, frost is not expected as some wind will persist along with dewpoints in the 20s. Cool and dry during the day on Thursday with high temperatures only making it up to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Breezy with a W wind of 15-20 mph gusting to 25 mph, and up to 30 mph over the Eastern Shore.

Surface high pressure builds over the area Thursday night/Friday morning, and this could end up being the colder night given a better chance to decouple. Additionally, dewpoints will creep upward. Forecast lows range from ~32F from the Piedmont to the interior coastal plain, with mid 30s to near 40F toward the coast. Temperatures nudge upward Friday, with will remain on the cool side of seasonal averages, with forecast highs in the mid 60s under a mostly sunny sky.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday .

Dry Friday night with increasing clouds. Milder, with lows ranging through the 40s. Low pressure approaches from the SW Saturday, and tracks NE across the region Saturday night then deepens as it lifts NE and away from the area Sunday. 21/00z Models have some general agreement, but there are some timing and moisture placement details, but overall there is a high likelihood of showers Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Showers quickly SW-NE Sunday morning with decreasing clouds in the aftn. Thunder may eventually be needed across the SE, but is does appear there will be some in-situ damming across the NW. Highs Sat in the low 60s W to 65-70F E, then 65-70F for all areas Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

High pressure builds in for the early part of next week. Highs Monday in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Monday night in the 40s. Highs Tuesday in the 70s, and potentially 80s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday .

Low pressure is centered over southern PA as of 11z, with a cold front trailing to the SW through the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered well offshore. Mostly clear with a S wind of 5-10kt early this morning. Low pressure will track NE this morning with the cold front approaching from the W by 18z. The cold front will sweep across the area after 18z, and is expected to be offshore by 00z. SCT-BKN CU/AC around 6-8kft are expected to develop later this morning into the afternoon. Scattered showers/tstms are expected to accompany the cold front this aftn, with the best chance from E-central VA to the Eastern Shore. Any tstms could contain damaging wind gusts and hail. A SW wind will increase to 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt ahead of the cold front, and then become WNW 15-20kt with gusts approaching 30kt after the cold front. Drier air arrives from the NW tonight as high pressure builds into the region.

High pressure prevails Thursday and Friday, with breezy conditions expected Thursday. Low pressure will bring a showers and degraded flight conditions Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure returns Sunday.

MARINE. As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday .

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well out to sea, while a cold front was pushing through ern West VA and extrm SW VA. Winds were S/SW 5-15 kts over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft, and seas 2-3 ft.

The cold front will approach from the west this morning, then push across the waters this aftn into early this evening. S/SW flow ahead of the front increases to 15-20 kt early this aftn, with winds then shifting to the W then NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt late this aftn into the evening. Wind probs at Tangier Island and buoy 44009 show the best chances for a period of Gale gusts this evening/early tonight. So, have a Gale Warning for the nrn bay and nrn most coastal zone (ANZ650) from 20Z this aftn until 08Z Thu. SCA was issued for the rest of the waters from this aftn/late this aftn into Thu morning/through Thu aftn or evening. Waves in the bay will build to 3-5 ft, and seas will build to 5-6 ft.

High pressure builds in from the west Thu into Thu night, but with continued CAA. Sub-SCA conditions are expected late Thu night into Fri aftn, as the high moves over the area.

FIRE WEATHER. As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday .

A gusty westerly wind is expected later this morning into the afternoon as a cold front crosses the area. Most model guidance keeps the frontal passage dry for areas west of I-95, with only widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for far eastern VA, lower MD and NE NC. Gusts of 25-30 mph can be expected today with RH values lowering to 25-30% across the Piedmont late this afternoon. The wind will be gusty again Thursday afternoon with min RH values lowering further, ranging from 20-25% inland to 25-30% toward the coast. The limiting factor for potential Red Flag conditions will continue to be fuel moisture, given recent rainfall and low KBDI values. However, if a widespread wetting rain is not realized (and is not expected) today, then an Increased Fire Danger statement will be necessary Thursday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ631-632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-650. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ652-654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM . AJZ SHORT TERM . AJZ LONG TERM . AJZ/MPR AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . CMF/TMG FIRE WEATHER . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi54 min S 8 G 9.9
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi54 min S 17 G 21 60°F 1007.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi42 min 19 G 25 57°F 56°F1 ft1007.4 hPa (-2.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi54 min SSW 13 G 15 60°F 58°F1007.8 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi54 min SSW 12 G 16 59°F 59°F1008.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi42 min S 15 G 19 58°F 55°F1007.4 hPa (-1.7)50°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi54 min SW 19 G 23
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi36 min WSW 14 G 16 59°F 58°F1008.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi72 min WSW 8.9 58°F 1006 hPa46°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi42 min 16 G 21 58°F 56°F1 ft1007.3 hPa (-1.8)
CPVM2 36 mi54 min 58°F 51°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi54 min S 9.9 G 17 60°F 58°F1006 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi54 min SW 13 G 15 59°F 58°F1008.5 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi54 min SSW 12 G 15 58°F 62°F1006.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi60 min S 7 G 15 59°F 58°F1006.5 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi47 minS 710.00 miFair57°F50°F77%1008.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi50 minSSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds60°F49°F67%1007.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi52 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F48°F68%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmW6
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2 days ago3NW8NW9N9N6--N9N8N8
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N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
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Wed -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:07 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:38 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:43 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.20.90.70.60.50.60.81.11.41.71.81.81.61.41.10.90.70.60.60.711.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     -0.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:40 AM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:50 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.50.50.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.20.3

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