Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:43PM Sunday December 8, 2019 10:04 PM EST (03:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 937 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of rain late this evening, then rain.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain or drizzle likely.
Mon night..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then rain likely through the night.
ANZ500 937 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will develop over the central united states and lift into the great lakes through Monday. A warm front developing east of this area of low pressure over the carolinas is expected to lift northward across the mid-atlantic during this time. The aforementioned low will drag its trailing cold front through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Monday night through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 082343 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 643 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of low pressure lifts north across eastern North Carolina late tonight and off the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday. A stronger area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes late Monday and into eastern Canada on Tuesday. A trailing strong cold front crosses the local area Tuesday night. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 355 PM EST Sunday .

Latest sfc analysis shows 1032 mb high pressure offshore of New England. Meanwhile, an inverted trough was developing just off the Southeast coast. Moisture in the form of increased cloud cover has begun to spread into southern VA as of 3 pm, with overcast conditions now prevalent from the Hwy 460 corridor on south. Clouds will continue to overspread the region from south to north through sunset, becoming overcast/mostly cloudy everywhere this evening. Rain will also be advancing north from eastern NC and latest HRRR has the pcpn reaching southern portions of the FA by around 00Z. The coastal trough/weak sfc low will organize over the eastern Carolinas later this evening and then models move the wave of low pressure N across eastern NC late tonight and then NNE to near the northern OBX/Va Beach by 12z Mon. This will result in a decent slug of moisture overspreading most of the area overnight, but with emphasis on areas along/east of the I-95 corridor. Will have likely PoPs for much of the FA by 06z tonight and then likely/categorical PoPs from 06z-12z Mon. QPF amounts overnight will be under 0.50", except local amounts up to 1" possible for coastal NE NC. Temps will be higher tonight, but still chilly across the Piedmont given in-situ wedge setup. Lows from the mid 30s NW to the low 50s SE coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Sunday .

The weak low quickly exits to the NE and offshore Monday morning as SW flow aloft begins to increase in response to broad mid- level troughing across the upper Midwest. Models do show a punch of drier air working in across southern/SW portions of the FA by late morning into the afternoon. Will have lowest PoPs for these areas through the day. Farther N/NW, plentiful moisture present will coincide with mid-level energy rotating in from the NW to result in likely PoPs through the day. Milder Monday with winds becoming SSW in the afternoon. However, wedge conditions will still take a while to erode across the Piedmont so the temperature forecast may be a bit tricky. Highs Monday will take until late afternoon/evening to reach the mid 50s NW and around 60 for the I-95 corridor. Highs should reach the mid/upr 60s SE VA/NE NC in the afternoon. Mot much of a temp drop Monday night with SW flow and WAA in place ahead of a cold front crossing the OH/TN valley. Additionally, pcpn chances will be on the decline. What we may have to contend with Monday night is widespread low stratus or potential dense fog given moist low- levels. Will continue to monitor this potential and adjust forecast accordingly. Lows Monday night from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE.

Models continue the slower trend of pcpn arrival on Tue ahead of the approaching cold front late Tue/Tues night. Latest data suggests little support for pcpn thru 18Z (except low chc PoPs Piedmont) with PoPs gradually increasing from west to east through 00Z Wed. Thus, adjusted the grids with this trend in mind. Will have likely PoPs N/W late Tues lowering to slight chc PoPs across NE NC prior to 00Z Wed. What this does is allow for is an unseasonably warm day (not quite to record levels, see CLI section below) with partial sunshine possible across the east and a breezy SW wind. Highs will range from the mid/upr 60s Piedmont to the low/mid 70s east (upr 60s/low 70s Eastern Shore).

Cold front crosses the area Tuesday night with likely/categorical PoPs through 12z, then decreasing PoPs from west to east on Wednesday as the cold front exits offshore. Likely PoPs (55-70%) areawide in the morning, then lingering low chc PoPs (~30%) for coastal areas after 18z. It will turn sharply cooler again Tuesday night into Wednesday. Lows Tues night in the mid 30s NW to the mid 40s SE. Highs Wednesday from the low 40s NW to the low 50s SE. Believe the best chance of seeing any frozen pcpn will remain N/W of our local area late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, so have kept p-type all liquid for now. Total QPF amounts through Wed will be on the order of 0.50-1", except locally higher amounts across eastern NC that receive the most rain tonight.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Sunday .

Strong high pressure over the upper Midwest will build into the region Wednesday night. Strong cold advection on northwesterly winds will lead to overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 20s NW, mid to upper 20s for the I-95 corridor, and upper 20s and low 30s for SE VA and NE NC. The aforementioned surface high will become centered over/just north of the local area on Thursday with decreasing clouds and winds. Daytime high temperatures will only make it into the upper 30s and low 40s on Thursday. Models have come into much better agreement and all now keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly overnight lows range from the low 20s NW to upper 30s SE.

Surface high pressure continues its eastward migration on Friday but will still extend ridging to the SW along and east of the higher terrain. GFS/ECMWF solutions diverge regarding timing for the expected wet period late week into the weekend with the GFS around 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. Will increase PoPs slowly from the south/southwest during the day on Friday but the bulk of the precip is expected to fall Friday night into Saturday as low pressure lifts northward across the region. Given the slower timing, high pressure will have moved well away from the favored area to supply cold/dry air to the region and concerns for mixed precipitation have decreased. High temps on Friday range from the low 40s NW, close to 50 degrees for the Richmond metro, and low to mid 50s for areas east of I-95. Not looking particularly cold behind the weekend system either, highs in the 50s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 640 PM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions in place but will quickly degrade this evening and especially tonight as low pressure and associated rain and lower CIGs creep northward from the Carolinas. Trend in model guidance has been for a slightly faster degradation in flight categories and will show a fairly quick transition to MVFR and IFR this evening at RIC, slightly later for more eastern sites tonight. Fog is also a concern at RIC Monday morning. Rain will exit to the east and offshore by 09.12Z, perhaps a bit later at SBY. IFR conditions will hang on into Monday afternoon before CIGs finally begin to lift. Winds out of the SE tonight will become S and SSW by late in the period with gusts ~20 knots possible at ORF and ECG.

OUTLOOK . The area will be largely rain free from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. However, localized reductions in CIGS/VSBYS will be possible, especially Monday night, due to areas of fog/stratus. Periods of lower CIGS/VSBYS in both rain/shwrs are likely Tues aftn through Wed morning, as low pressure tracks well to our NW. A trailing cold front will cross the area Tues night. High pressure builds into the area for Wednesday/Thursday.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Sunday .

High pressure has moved well off the coast this aftn with a sfc trough developing off the SE coast. E winds avg 5-10 kt in the Bay and northern coastal waters, and 10-15 kt across the southern coastal waters. Seas are 2-3 ft N and ~4 ft in NC waters. Bay waves are 1-2 ft. Have raised SCA headlines late tonight/Mon AM for the coastal waters as the sfc trough gradually lifts N and SE winds increase along the coast. The strongest winds are progged to stay a little offshore, but even if winds only gust to ~25 kt, seas are expected to build to 4-6 ft overnight and to 5-8 ft later Mon into Tue. Less confident at winds increasing to SCA thresholds over the Bay/sound/Rivers and local wind probs are only ~10-30% for this occurring during the day Mon so have held off and will generally have S winds to around 15 kt on Mon (winds will tend to be lighter early Mon for the Bay and especially the Rivers as the front is slow to lift to the N/NW).

Increasing SSW flow should bring winds to ~20kt in the Bay/sound Mon night so headlines will probably be needed but this is currently 3rd period so will allow next shift to adjust as necessary. With very warm conditions Tue during the day ahead of an approaching cold front, winds over the cold waters will likely diminish a bit (though seas on the coast will remain at or above 5 ft). SCA conditions likely for all zones Tue night/Wed AM as colder air moves in from the N. Potential for stronger winds Wed night/Thu as a secondary cold surge arrives with strong high pressure building in from the N while low pressure lingers over the SE CONUS. Seas will also remain elevated through this period.

CLIMATE. Record highs for 12/10:

RIC . 79 in 2007 ORF . 78 in 2007 SBY . 73 in 1966 ECG . 78 in 2007

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM SHORT TERM . JDM/MPR LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . JDM/RHR MARINE . CMF/LKB CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi52 min N 1 G 2.9 44°F 44°F1028.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi34 min E 1.9 G 3.9 44°F 1028.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi46 min N 1 G 1.9 45°F 47°F1027.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi52 min NNE 1.9 G 6 44°F 43°F1028 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi64 min ESE 5.1 G 6 45°F 45°F1029.2 hPa (-0.5)39°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi46 min NE 2.9 G 2.9
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi34 min 46°F 47°F961.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi154 min SSE 2.9 40°F 1027 hPa38°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi34 min S 9.7 G 9.7 44°F 45°F1028.5 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi46 min 44°F 44°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi46 min 44°F 1027.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi52 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 44°F1027.7 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi52 min Calm G 1.9 46°F 47°F1026.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi52 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 41°F 44°F1028.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F37°F81%1028.4 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi72 minN 010.00 miOvercast47°F42°F83%1027.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi79 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F35°F71%1029.8 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi69 minN 0 miOvercast45°F35°F71%1028.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGE

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6SE3SE9SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:37 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:52 PM EST     1.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.81.21.41.51.41.210.80.50.40.30.40.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:19 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:50 AM EST     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:52 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:40 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:56 PM EST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.40.60.70.60.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.