Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Church Creek, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Temperatures remain below average today through Thursday morning.
Another hard freeze is likely late tonight/early Thursday morning for rural inland areas.

2) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

3) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION
As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain below average today through Thursday morning. Another hard freeze is likely late tonight/early Thursday morning for rural inland areas.

High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic early this morning beneath a longwave trough that covers much of the Eastern Seaboard. Mostly clear early this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30F inland, with mid/upper 30s along the coast where a light northerly wind persists. Temperatures likely drop a few degrees toward sunrise with early morning lows in the mid/upper 20s inland and lower 30s along the coast.

Cool today with less wind and highs in the lower to mid 40s as high pressure over the region. Chilly again tonight. Inland rural areas will likely have another hard freeze with lows in the upper 20s (mid 20s possible in the Piedmont). Closer to and along the coast, light onshore flow will result in lows not quite a chilly and generally in the lower/mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day Thursday with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday night.

00z/18 ensemble guidance continues to depict a strong upper ridge over the central CONUS late week building E by next weekend. Temperatures return to near seasonal averages Thursday/Thursday night, with a steady warming trend beginning Friday and continuing into next weekend. There is no signal for organized rainfall later this week into next weekend aside from a weak upper system that brings a chance of showers Friday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler temperatures.

00z/18 EPS/GEFS depict weakening of the upper ridge early next week as a trough digs from the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
This will allow a cold front to drop across the region along with a chance of showers. Below average temperatures are expected to return behind the cold front.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR under a mostly clear sky and a light N to NW wind. VFR conditions prevail today through tonight. Passing high clouds will move over the area this morning a clear out later today into tonight.
Additionally, some low-level CU will likely develop later this morning for the coastal terminals as the wind becomes NE. A 5-10kt N/NE wind early today will gradually become E/SE by this aftn, and then become very light by tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Thursday through Sunday with light winds. There is a low chance for showers this weekend though most areas stay dry.

MARINE
As of 220 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters through early this morning, turning to benign conditions later this morning through the end of the week.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is Sunday night-Monday following a cold frontal passage.

High pressure continues to build into the area early this morning.
Winds shifted to the N during the evening yesterday, bringing a small push of CAA bringing slightly elevated winds along with it.
Latest obs depict winds of 15 to 20kt in the bay and coastal waters and 10-15kt over the rivers. Seas have been under-performing slightly, but offshore buoys do suggest 5ft seas out near 20nm.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the bay and coastal waters through later this morning. The sfc high then settles to the N of the area later today. Winds become much lighter at 5-10kt and onshore. Seas fall back to 2-3ft. This pattern this persists through the remainder of the week. Next chance for elevated winds look to be over the weekend with southerly flow ahead of a front, but guidance currently keeps this sub-SCA. There is higher confidence reaching SCA conditions behind the cold front during the Sunday-Monday time period.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658.