Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moab, UT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:15PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 12:56 PM MDT (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:40PMMoonset 1:04PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moab, UT
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location: 38.52, -110     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 111631 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1030 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. Threat of dry thunderstorms over northwest Utah today/tomorrow in the late afternoon/evening. Otherwise, seasonal temperatures with a limited chance for precipitation will continue through the week under southwesterly flow aloft. Hot temperatures could return for the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY). High pressure remains centered over north-central Mexico and far southwest New Mexico this morning, with a weak low remaining off the central California coast. Meanwhile, a near zonal flow persists across northern Utah. A couple of shortwave disturbances ejecting out of the upstream low will ripple across southern through east-central Utah today and tonight and into tomorrow morning.

A pocket of midlevel moisture with PWATs between 0.6-0.7 inches persists across northwest Utah, coincident with an area of low-level convergence. As such, clouds and a few very weak showers are evident on satellite/radar imagery there this morning. Shower potential will increase across portions of northern Utah later this afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible. Across the south, PWATs have decreased quite a bit from yesterday. However, models indicate some moisture will start to push its way back north towards the Utah/Arizona border this afternoon. As such, can not rule out showers developing across the far southern mountains and adjacent valleys today, despite model blends not indicating any PoPs. However, there is some indication of a shower threat in some CAMs, particularly the HRRR simulated reflectivity field. Not too far-fetched if the moisture surge is real, particularly since there is a bit of forcing with the shortwave disturbances. As the final shortwave disturbance slowly exits the area tomorrow, a few showers may linger across the north through the afternoon hours.

High pressure will begin to bulge into Arizona and New Mexico on Thursday. However, models suggest that some moisture will get tapped from Hurricane Elida, which will spread into southern Utah on Thursday. As such, the potential for showers/thunderstorms should increase across the south, so have trended PoPs above what is available in blended guidance (which was pretty much nothing). Even though rainfall amounts will not be significant, models have always struggled with having enough PoPs with the initial moisture surge. Otherwise, temperatures through the short term forecast period will remain near seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday). Main focus of the long term forecast remains consistent as a ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the western U.S. by the end of the weekend, bringing continued hot and largely dry conditions over the eastern Great Basin. A subtle increase in mid-level moisture is likely to move over the southern half of the forecast area from the Baja region to start the extended forecast. While current deterministic guidance seems to be fairly split on the outcome of this moisture increase (PoP vs. no PoP), blended guidance continues to favor at least slight chance to chance of PoPs over portions of southern Utah. This seems to be a reasonable scenario given the split nature of the deterministic guidance, however, both the ECMWF and GFS are showing increased PWATs into the 0.6-0.8in range, so thinking that at least isolated convection over the higher terrain will be the outcome. Given the dry sub-cloud environment, expecting very little precipitation if any showers develop.

Thereafter, a suppressed ridge of high pressure will expand northward and amplify over the western U.S. through the weekend, allowing temperatures to rise once again. While Friday's temperatures are expected to run right around normal, daytime highs are likely to run ~5F above normal along the Wasatch Front by Sunday. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of keeping this persistent ridge in place through the first half of the next week, which should keep above average temperatures in place through the end of the extended period. Dry conditions are expected as this ridge remains in place, however, isolated convection may be possible over the elevated terrain on Monday and Tuesday as deterministic guidance suggests PWAT values in the 0.6-0.85in range, with much of that moisture residing in the mid-levels.

AVIATION. VFR conditions will continue across the SLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light southerly winds will shift to the north and turn gusty after 19z, expect wind gusts up to 16 knots. Winds will begin to diminish after 00z. There is a 20% chance for vicinity thunderstorms after 00z, but confidence is low and have excluded any mention of VCTS in this TAF update.

FIRE WEATHER. A west to southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place through the end of the week. Expect near seasonal temperatures and limited moisture during this timeframe. Weak disturbances will continue to cross the area, leading to isolated to widely scattered weak convection at times. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but little in the way of measurable rainfall is expected. However, winds will increase through midweek, enough to create critical fire weather conditions when combined with low humidities. The greatest threat exists across southern Utah today, then this spreads into central and portions of northern Utah tomorrow, lingering across the north on Thursday. By the beginning of next week, high pressure will build back strongly into the area, causing temperatures to trend hotter.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ493>496-498.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for UTZ479-482>484.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for UTZ488-489-492.

WY . Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277.



Cheng/Webber/Woodward/Van Cleave

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Moab, Canyonlands Field, UT22 mi63 minSSW 15 G 1910.00 miFair93°F19°F7%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCNY

Wind History from CNY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW8W10
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W5W7SW5SW8S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6CalmNE3CalmE4SW10
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1 day agoW8W7NW7
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2 days ago6NE76
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Junction, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.