Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:26AM||Sunset 7:58PM||Wednesday April 21, 2021 5:36 AM MDT (11:36 UTC)||Moonrise 12:54PM||Moonset 2:47AM||Illumination 71%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hanksville, UTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 210932 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 332 AM MDT Wed Apr 21 2021
SYNOPSIS. A series of weak storm systems will bring unsettled weather for the middle to latter part of the work week before high pressure brings a warming and drying trend for the weekend. A stronger storm system will approach early next week.
SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday). A weakening storm system will move to near Las Vegas this morning before decaying further as it track eastward across southern Utah today into this evening. Ahead of this low a weak deformation axis, marked by virga and cloud cover, has pushed northward across the state and is in place over northern Utah this morning. In addition, limited mid level moisture is in place over southern and central Utah. Given the extremely weak synoptic forcing, any showers today will be scattered and loosely organized along the deformation axis where it intersects the higher terrain during peak heating. More widely scattered to isolated showers are possible across central and southern Utah, mainly tied to orographically favored locations. Otherwise, the largely impact will be the increased winds and low humidity across southern Utah, but more on that in the Fire Weather discussion below.
The decaying low pressure system shifts eastward on Thursday leaving a baggy trough axis over the forecast area. Scattered showers are again possible with daytime heating, largely tied to the terrain. However, most locations will see a dry and seasonable day.
Friday, we start to transition out of the disorganized trough axis into drier northwesterly flow. However, there is a weak wave in the developing northwesterly flow that generated a few light showers mainly over northeastern Utah, and again mostly tied to the higher terrain. Otherwise, a dry day for most locations with more seasonable temperatures.
LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday). The feature to note during the long term period currently resides as a deep upper low oriented along 160W and just south of the Aleutian Islands early this morning. This trough will continue to slowly meander southeast towards the Pac Coast between now and the beginning of the long term period, and will set up a low amplitude ridge overhead come Saturday with mostly dry/stable conditions dominating. Can't rule isolated light precip across the far north Sat pm, but of little consequence. Temps pushing some 5-10 degrees of climo remain forecast. Further encroachment of the upper low will allow for a rapid downstream translation and further flattening of the ridge by Sunday, with an increasingly strong southwesterly flow orienting overhead at that time. Dry, gusty southerly winds, and maintenance of 5-10 degree above average temps remain notable for increasing critical fire weather development. This remains something to watch for the weekend.
Model spread in the globals increases thereafter, especially regarding the evolution, track, and timing of the trough as it translates inland during the Mon-Tue timeframe. GEFs/EPS ensemble means remain roughly 12 hours apart regarding overhead translation of this feature, with the GEFs mean retaining a more progressive flair than the EPS. This said, overall spread of individual ensemble members within the GEFs is quite a bit larger than the EPS (which has more members) so confidence in the latter and the associated slower progression is a bit higher at this time. Outside of these timing and slight amplitude issues, the bottom line remains similar regarding sensible weather early next week . cooler and wetter. Modest IVT transport remains forecast to sneak around the southern end of the Sierras northeast along the leading edge baroclinic zone during the day Monday . most likely pm hours . and coupled with the frontal forcing will likely drive modest valley rain and mountain snow thereafter into Tuesday. Ran a storm total QPF grid from the NBM this shift, and current accums favor in excess of .50" of rain for the northern valleys, and 1 to 1 5" SWE for the mountains. less south/east. These details will obviously shift a bit moving forward, but remain a good indicator of precip potential. The net CAA remains modest at best so forecast cooling only drags the forecast area to slightly below normal values for this time of of the year through Tue.
Model spread increases from there into the midweek period, as globals trend out of phase as of the current writing. We'll see how things evolve moving forward with additional runs.
AVIATION. Operational weather concerns are expected to remain minimal at the KSLC terminal for this valid TAF period. Namely light east to southeast winds are expected to be retained through 15-16z prior to once again transitioning to a light northwest for the remainder of the morning. Speeds will increase from the northwest this afternoon, but only modestly so. Expect mid level clouds to hold in large through this evening, but with cigs generally above 10kft, VFR conditions will be maintained.
FIRE WEATHER. A weakening storm system will move to near Las Vegas this morning before decaying further as it track eastward across southern Utah today into this evening. Ahead of this low pressure system, south to southwesterly winds will increased across much of southern Utah this afternoon through early evening in an already very dry environment with extreme drought conditions in place. The combination of fuels, winds and low humidity will make for critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings remain in place across the Mojave Desert and Grand Staircase zones, but have expanded the warning northward to include the Henry Mountains and Color Country West Desert as confidence has increased that stronger winds will make it a bit farther north into these zones today.
More critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the state Friday through the weekend. However, we expect to learn more about fuels and the status of spring green up across portions of the state today. Will hold off any watches on this shift and allow the day shift to collaborate with fuels specialists to decide how to handle fire weather concerns moving forward.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ494-495-497-498.
WY . None.
SHORT TERM . Church LONG TERM . Merrill AVIATION . Merrill FIRE WEATHER . Church
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
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