Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hanksville, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...Record temperatures and critical fire weather conditions will remain the main story through the short term forecast period. Early afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicate broad ridging across the southwestern United States. A strong trough is currently approaching the Pacific Northwest.

Like most troughs over the last few weeks, this one will weaken as interaction with the stubborn ridge increases. Ahead of this trough, expect strong, gusty southwest winds across western and northern Utah Friday afternoon and evening. This combined with record temperatures and low humidities will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of northern and western Utah. Red Flag Warnings are now in effect for these areas. It is important for everyone utilizing the outdoors Friday to be extremely careful with any sources of ignition including campfires or parking/driving across high, dry grasses. Human-caused wildfires are the most common in Utah.

As for record temperatures, the current forecast high for Salt Lake City is 91. This would be the record maximum temperature for the month of October. Other records will likely fall as well.

As the weakening cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon into Friday evening, high-based convection may develop, particularly across northern Utah. While any substantive measurable precipitation is unlikely with this convection, the dry sub-cloud layer and inverted-v profiles will support microbursts with gusty and erratic winds. Instability is meager, but expect at least an isolated threat of microbursts.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday), Issued 312 AM MDT... On Saturday a weak cold frontal boundary will likely be continuing to wash out over the area, doing little aside from knocking temperatures down several degrees across the northern two-thirds or so of the forecast area. Even then, temperatures areawide will continue to run about 7 to 15 degrees above climatological normal for early October. Some guidance sources hint at the smallest chance of an isolated shower trying to develop along the remnant boundary (likely near to just south of the I-70 corridor), but given that moisture will remain quite meager and synoptic lift will be limited, think it's a pretty unlikely scenario.

Through more or less the remainder of the long term period, ensemble guidance continues to maintain a strong consensus favoring a ridge dominated pattern which allows dry conditions and anomalous warmth to persist. One thing to keep an eye on will be the exact position of the ridge though, as a few outlier deterministic solutions still shift the ridge just enough to allow more favorable moisture return Tue/Wed coincident with a modest southern stream trough moving inland. Largely think this will translate to increased cloud cover more than anything else across the vast majority of the forecast region, but nonetheless will be something to watch in an otherwise fairly benign pattern. Ensemble membership that includes any sort of measurable precipitation appears to be limited to around 15% of members, and one has to push to the NBM's 90th percentile QPF to find any measurable precip as well. Still, as previously mentioned, warm/dry conditions through the week appear the most likely scenario on a general basis.

While just beyond the time range covered by this forecast, those looking for any sort of pattern change might have a little glimmer of hope as long range ensembles show very loose agreement on some sort of amplifying trough near the Pacific coast by next weekend.
While the specifics are far too uncertain to pin down in any actionable manner, it'll be something to watch in how it trends.
Further, while the CPC 8 to 14 day temperature outlook continues to favor above normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the CONUS, the precipitation outlook now leans ever so slightly in favor of above normal precip across the southern half of Utah. That said "ever so slightly" in this case translates to roughly 37% chance above normal, 33% chance near normal, and 30% chance below normal.
Far from something to base any plans around, but rather another item suggesting we may at least see some sort of pattern shift by mid October.

AVIATION
KSLC...Light northwest winds will transition to southeast around 03Z. Winds will transition to the south, with gusts around 20 knots from roughly 17-20Z Friday. A transition to light northwest winds is likely around 20-21Z. Scattered clouds will build during the afternoon, with a 10-20% chance for an isolated shower capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds from 00-06Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Relatively light winds with clear skies will last through Friday morning. South to southwest winds, with gusts exceeding 20 knots are likely from 18-01Z throughout southwest Wyoming and much of Utah. There is a 10-20% chance for showers capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah from 00-06Z.

FIRE WEATHER
Strong high pressure across the region continues to be the main story. After another night of poor overnight recoveries, an approaching disturbance will help to increase southwesterly flow Friday afternoon and evening. With a very dry airmass in place and record temperatures expected, critical fire weather conditions will develop across portions of northern and western Utah Friday afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon into Friday evening, bringing the threat of a few microbursts, especially to northern Utah. By Saturday, humidities will increase across northern Utah, with temperatures falling around 5 degrees. The relief will be less across southern Utah. High pressure will remain in place for the remainder of the forecast.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for UTZ479-480-492- 495.

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to 7 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ277.