Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hanksville, UT

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hanksville, UT

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Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 282157 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 357 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled conditions will continue over northern Utah today before drier air moves northward for Memorial Day, limiting convection to far northern Utah. Southern Utah will stay dry through midweek. A California low will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms for the middle to latter part of the week.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...An area of low pressure centered just west of San Fransisco is forecast to slowly drop southward and then inland, reaching southern California or southern Nevada by Wednesday morning. A shortwave can currently be seen rotating northward across northern Nevada and extreme western Utah, and this is responsible for aiding in convective initiation across these areas. Latest SPC analysis indicates ~35kts of effective bulk shear across east-central Nevada and west-central Utah associated with the shortwave. Elsewhere, deep-layer shear is weak and CAPE is marginal, thus convective activity is been more of the pulse mode, quickly diminishing after reaching the mature stage. Thus, longest-lasting most organized convection is expected associated with the eastern Nevada and western Utah shortwave.
That said, even the pulse-type cells will be capable of gusty outflow winds, small hail and briefly heavy rainfall. CAMs bear this out through the evening, depicting clusters of thunderstorms propagating NE from Dugway across the Salt Lake Desert through the evening. These will gradually diminish late evening with the loss of daytime heating and the departure of the shortwave. Ensemble max gusts suggests the strongest storms will be capable of gusts in the 50-60 mph range, with the most likely range in the 25-35 mph range. Given the climatology of the region, wouldn't be surprised if peak wind gusts trend closer to the ensemble max.

Deep-layer southerly flow and dry advection takes over on Monday and persists through Tuesday across the region thanks to the placement of the low to our west. Thus, shower and thunderstorm coverage will be more limited MOnday and Tuesday, confined mainly to high terrain areas near the Idaho border. Despite the overall drying trend, can't rule out an isolated cell developing across the Oquirrhs and Uintas again, with about a 50% of a brief shower and a 10% chance of lighting across the former, with a slightly higher, or 15% chance of lightning across the latter. These probabilities apply to both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...The active pattern continues; Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly across northern UT and southwest WY. An increase in moisture and dynamics with a low pressure system will increase those chances across the entire area heading into Thursday and beyond.

Model agreement is higher than in past days for Tuesday/Wednesday, with the closed low over CA likely just starting to push inland Tuesday morning. PWATs Tuesday remain near below normal, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms limited to near the ID and WY borders. The rest of the area will remain dry. Expect near-normal temperatures for mid-week.

As the low pushes inland into AZ and eventually southern UT, diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across the entire area beginning Thursday. QPF is likely to remain higher across northern areas due to richer PWATs up north (near the 90th percentile for early June). Temperatures will also cool with the arrival of the low, with highs near 5-10 degrees below normal.

The overall pattern becomes more unclear heading into the weekend, though ensemble members agree with continuation of active weather and thus more showers and thunderstorms. Models are converging on the potential for another low trailing the first, with potentially more shortwaves stemming from the parent trough over the NE Pacific.
Later in the weekend, 73% of ensemble members favor this parent trough sliding back north, with the remaining 27% favoring a push south nearing the CONUS. It is unclear exactly what impacts this will bring to our area, but what we do know is that unsettled weather is likely to continue, at least through Day 7.



AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will be maintained over the KSLC terminal with vicinity shower and isolated thunderstorm activity continuing through at least 03Z. There is a 25% chance that shower activity continues through 06Z and moves over the terminal. North winds will be the primary flow direction, however, there is a 40% chance that southerly outflows around 10kts establish between 23Z and 03Z. Thereafter, southerly flow will prevail through the night.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will be maintained across a large majority of the forecast area, however, isolated heavy rainfall may temporarily reduce VIS below 5SM in northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through 04Z. Elsewhere, southern and eastern Utah will remain largely cloud free, and central Utah will continue to see isolated showers mainly over terrain features.
Light terrain driven flows will dominate through the remainder of the period, however, gusty and erratic outflow winds will remain possible for areas experiencing shower/ thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER
Another area of low pressure will slide south along the California coast through early in the week. The resultant southerly flow will bring drier air over northern Utah through early in the week while southern Utah remains quite dry. However, the threat of isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue over northern Utah through midweek especially over high terrain areas near the Idaho border. As the California low continues east, a more moist airmass will push across the entire area for the middle to latter park of the week, increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will stay near seasonal normals over the next several days.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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