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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 224 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain this morning.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of rain.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog. A chance of rain.
Sun..SW winds around 5 knots. Patchy fog.

PZZ500 224 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
winds gradually diminish and shift northerly late Wednesday into Thursday before strong breezes develop Thursday morning, with gales possible over the far southern coastal waters near point sur. A larger moderate period northwest swell arrives in the late week. Weather conditions will remain unsettled into the weekend.

FXUS66 KSTO 292303 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 303 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023


Synopsis
Dry weather through the rest of today with partly clouds skies.
Rain and mountain snow chances return Thursday into the weekend.



Discussion
After a few rain showers this morning, dry weather is expected to persist through tonight with decreasing cloud cover. Current GOES visible satellite observations show cloudy skies along the Sierra crest and over the northern Sacramento Valley. As the remaining moisture from this morning's system vacates the area, cloud cover will decrease overnight. High temperatures in the Valley & foothills will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Mountain high temps will be cooler hovering between the low 40s to mid 50s. A few isolated locations in the Sierra (Shasta & Tehama counties) will see high temperatures in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow as colder air and increased cloud cover associated with an incoming low pressure system promote a gradual cooling trend. This will be the first of two precipitation events expected to impact our area later this week and into Saturday

With the first event, the aforementioned low pressure system is set to deepen as it quickly moves through our area Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, increasing precipitation chances mainly over the foothills and mountains with a few sprinkles possible in the northern and eastern Sacramento Valley. The heaviest precipitation will take place Thursday night and will consist of rain and mountain snow. The NBM is forecasting snow levels between 4500-5500 feet on Thursday, lowering to 3000-4000 feet early Friday morning. During this period, the NBM has a 45-80% chance of 2" or more inches of snow and a 30-60% chance of 4" or more.

A brief break in the precipitation is expected to occur Friday afternoon. The second precipitation event is forecast to have a more northern trajectory as a deepening longwave trough increases precipitation chances Friday night through Saturday morning.
Shasta county, the southern Cascades, and the Sierra crest north of Highway 50 are likely to see the higher precipitation amounts and snowfall. Rain and snowfall amounts are still expected over the foothills and south of 50, respectively. Snow levels will be roughly around 3500-5000 feet before increasing later on Saturday.
Currently there is a 40-70% chance of 2" or more of snow fall over the mountains with a 30-60% chance of 0.25" or more of rain over the foothills. Ridging is set to build back into our area by Saturday afternoon as precipitation chances decrease and temperatures begin a gradual warming trend.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Early next week will see a brief lull in precipitation chances as upper level ridging builds in over interior NorCal. This quiet and dry weather will also usher in a slight warming trend, resulting in potential for Valley high temperatures in the low to mid 60s from early to mid next week. As the upper ridge shifts further eastward toward the Intermountain West Tuesday into Wednesday, southwesterly flow aloft looks to set up across the region. While no definitive shortwaves that would impact interior NorCal are being resolved within ensemble guidance just yet, this flow pattern will at least introduce the potential for increasing precipitation chances across mid next week if any waves do develop.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected over interior NorCal for the next 24 hours with low chances of MVFR conditions from mist/haze in the Northern San Joaquin Valley after 10z Thursday. Surface winds will generally be below 12 kts.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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