Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Timber Cove, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 841 PM PDT Mon Apr 21 2025

No changes to the forecast this evening as low stratus fills in along the coastline this evening. The stratus and fog should remain mostly along our coastal communities with a little farther intrusion across Monterey Bay into the Salinas Valley. Otherwise clear skies inland and a good night to watch the peak of the Lyrid meteor showers.

SHORT TERM
Issued at 130 PM PDT Mon Apr 21 2025 (Tonight through Tuesday Night)

Short Term Key Messages -Morning patchy dense fog potential -Minor HeatRisk through Tuesday

Clearing conditions persist this afternoon under the mid to late April sun. High temperatures appear to be largely on schedule this afternoon with readings running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This is due in part to less in the way of the marine influence (though that changes in the long term). Cloud cover, patchy drizzle and patchy fog should dissipate a little earlier on Tuesday morning compared to this morning. That said, motorists should still anticipate rapid reductions in visibility for the Tuesday morning commute.

Once clouds, drizzle, and fog dissipate, Tuesday will be another day of above normal warmth. The above normal heat should be manageable for most of the populous with HeatRisk levels being classified as "minor" for Monday and Tuesday. This means that those that are very sensitive to heat (elderly and very young) are most at risk for heat-related ailments if not adequately cooled or hydrated with water.

LONG TERM
Issued at 130 PM PDT Mon Apr 21 2025 (Wednesday through next Sunday)

Long Term Key Messages *Increased onshore flow and a cooling trend through Saturday *10-20% chance for drizzle/light rain Friday/Saturday

Changes in the sensible weather elements begins Wednesday (though potentially as early as late Tuesday) as onshore flow increases.
This will usher in some modest moisture advection and there are even some hints of pockets of drizzle, especially in and around the Monterey Bay region (including the northern Salinas Valley).
There could also be some orographic ascent along higher terrain across the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucias that results in pockets of drizzle here too. Widespread stratus, especially along the coastal regions will generally be the rule with periods of partly sunny conditions mostly during the afternoon hours.

As the Central Valley heats up mid-week, this should drive a sufficient onshore pressure gradient and I anticipate Thursday will feature even more cloud cover compared to Wednesday as the marine layer deepens under the influence of onshore flow. The onshore flow will also result in accelerated flow in/across some of the gaps and channels with peak gusts of 25 to 30 mph forecast (though some of the usual spots like Altamont Pass may overachieve).

Friday and into the weekend, we'll see our next opportunity for more in the way of light rain (though it's conceivable that most activity will be drizzle). NWP is in agreement with regard to the overall depiction of the upper air pattern with persistent west coast troughing. However, there's some variability in the strength of the upper trough. Some model camps (those dominated by the European Ensemble) offer a more vigorous trough. The implied stronger large scale ascent associated with this cluster would suggest a greater areal coverage of measurable rainfall across just about the entire Bay Area and Central Coast. However, a majority of the other solutions and factoring in climatology would support rain being confined to the North Bay. At this time, the forecast will lean more on the deterministic NBM which keeps PoPs across the North Bay. Thereafter, ridging does appear that it'll return and in response, daytime high temperatures will rebound and trend toward above normal.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 PM PDT Mon Apr 21 2025

VFR continues inland while along the coastline from southern Marin County southward stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ prevail per satellite and surface observations. There's not much if any hint of marine layer on the 00z Oakland upper sounding while the Fort Ord and Point Sur profilers show the marine layer depth is holding around 1200 feet. The ACV-SFO pressure gradient is 5.8 mb, SFO-SAC is 1.9 mb. Stratus and fog /IFR/ will continue to redevelop along the immediate coastline tonight and Tuesday morning, while VFR will prevail inland except for local intrusions of stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR/ across the San Francisco Bay to Oakland and Napa Airports.
Stratus and fog will mix out Tuesday morning, otherwise expect VFR Tuesday. Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ then moves back inland on onshore winds Tuesday evening and night.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence VFR for the evening, with near to slightly greater than moderate confidence VFR holds through Tuesday morning. VFR should hold Tuesday morning with the combination of a moderate ACV-SFO pressure gradient (northerly wind helps keep stratus/fog on the ocean side of the peninsula) and a compressed marine layer. West-northwest wind near 10 knots then mainly a light west wind late tonight shifting to light northeast wind Tuesday morning. West wind near 15 knots redeveloping Tuesday afternoon and early evening

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus and fog /IFR/ increasing in coverage through the evening, LIFR-IFR tonight and Tuesday morning. Conditions improving to VFR by late morning and early afternoon Tuesday, IFR due to stratus redeveloping Tuesday evening and night. Winds onshore 5 to 15 knots except light southeasterly late tonight and Tuesday morning.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 841 PM PDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Gusty north to northwest winds occasionally reaching gale force gusts will continue especially over the northern outer waters along with building northwesterly swell. Winds will subside later this week while an upper level low approaches from the northwest.
The low will bring a chance of wet weather to the coastal waters and bays later this week.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.