Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dumfries, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
All previous land based headlines have ended. While still gusty, winds have dropped below advisory criteria. Any lingering upslope snow is in the form of flurries at this point, and those should be ending by sunset.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure in central Canada and strong low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will remain in place tonight, though not as strong. This should allow some decoupling to take place, especially in the lower elevations. However, winds will remain elevated in the higher elevations. The cold airmass will further settle into the area tonight as well. Lows will drop into the single digits with blustery conditions along and west of the Allegheny Front, resulting in wind chills around 10 to 15 degrees below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for this area. Further east, wind chills will be in the teens and single digits above zero with air temperatures in the mid teens to mid 20s.

A surface ridge extending from a large Arctic high over the northern Plains will expand into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday. Winds may uptick slightly after sunrise, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible. Some mid and high level wave clouds may lead to mostly cloudy conditions at times. Highs will range from the upper 20s north to lower 40s south.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Clouds will increase further Tuesday night. Model trends continue to keep the southern stream low out ahead of the northern stream trough, keeping snow suppressed to the south.
There is still some opportunity for snow across the southern half of the forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night, especially across southern Maryland depending on the surface low strength/track. The greatest potential for reaching warning criteria (5 inches) is across southern St. Marys County, so have issued a Winter Storm Watch there. Whether it snows or not, it will be cold as high temperatures likely remain below freezing across the entire area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A coastal low will continue to deepen offshore during the day Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper low will move overhead The primary precipitation shield associated with the coastal low will have progressed off to our east by Thursday morning, but additional snow showers may be possible in association with ascent in advance of the approaching upper low. Most of these snow showers should be on the lighter side, and in general, an additional coating to an inch may be possible before precipitation winds down around midday. Drier conditions are expected in the afternoon, except in the Alleghenies, where upslope snow showers will continue. High temperatures will only make it into the 20s and lower 30s for most, with teens in the mountains. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder, with wind chills only reaching into the single digits and teens.

Upslope snow showers will continue in the mountains Thursday night, with dry conditions expected elsewhere. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the teens and lower 20s for most, with minimum wind chills in the single digits above/below zero.

Snow showers will start to wind down in the Alleghenies Friday morning, with dry conditions expected elsewhere. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest, and temperatures will stay below normal, with highs generally in the 30s to lower 40s (20s mountains).

High pressure will begin to build in from the west next weekend, leading to lighter winds, a gradual warming trend in temperatures, and dry conditions. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 40s on Saturday, and then mid 40s to near 50 on Sunday.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Winds continue to gradually diminish this afternoon. While winds will subside further after sunset, a tight pressure gradient will remain in place and at least occasional 20 kt gusts may occur through the night (except at CHO). A slight uptick may occur after sunrise (a few gusts up to 25 kt), but otherwise winds will be somewhat steady state until diminishing Tuesday evening. Some mid or high level ceilings are possible Tuesday but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

Low pressure will track south of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. The highest chance for snow and sub-VFR conditions is at CHO, although the metro terminals could see a period of light snow as well.

Sub-VFR conditions appear possible Thursday morning in association with low ceilings and snow. Improvement back to VFR conditions is expected Thursday afternoon into Friday. Winds will be out of the northwest on both Thursday and Friday.

MARINE
A large area of high pressure will descend into the north- central U.S. Since the high won't be directly overhead, west- northwest winds will only gradually diminish through Tuesday.
Gale Warnings continue through this afternoon for the northern waters. Small Craft Advisories will then be needed tonight into Tuesday, likely lingering over the bay Tuesday night.

Lighter winds are expected Wednesday. Locations along the bay could approach advisory criteria Wednesday night depending on the strength of low pressure to the south.

SCA conditions appear likely within northwesterly flow on both Thursday and Friday. A few low-end Gale gusts can't be ruled out, especially Thursday night.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ001.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>533-535- 538>542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ534- 536-537-543.