Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester, MO

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:42PM Friday December 6, 2019 9:53 AM CST (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 1:54PMMoonset 1:24AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester, MO
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location: 38.58, -90.53     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 061150 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 550 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

SHORT TERM. (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

An upper level shortwave is currently passing through the region, driving a surface trough and cold front through the mid-Mississippi Valley. Weak WAA ahead of the front has resulted in light rain across much of southern MO and IL. Behind the front, high pressure is building into the Northern Plains, with a thin layer of low stratus across much of the north central CONUS.

Northwest upper level flow will take hold across the central CONUS today and remain in place before turning zonal on Saturday night. The NW flow will help drive the cold front through the region today, with high pressure moving in behind the front. The upstream post-frontal low stratus will also build into the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and remain in place into at least the early afternoon before mixing and advecting out of the region. The combination of clouds and northerly winds will drop today's highs about 15 degrees compared to what we saw yesterday.

Skies will remain mostly clear tonight, which coupled with calm winds beneath the surface high, should allow tonight's lows to drop into the 20s across much of the region. As low level high pressure slides east of the area on Saturday, winds will swing around to the south. This will draw warmer air back into the region, pushing high temps back into the 40s and 50s on Saturday, and perhaps the 60s on Sunday in central and southern MO.

BSH

LONG TERM. (Sunday Night through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

By Sunday evening, guidance is in consensus showing a broad upper level trough across the western CONUS. A shortwave embedded in the flow ahead of the trough will gradually drive cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Sunday night. The shortwave, cyclone, and associated cold front will push through the region on Monday, before the parent upper trough drives a secondary shot of low-level cold air into the region on Tuesday.

This pattern will result in a handful of impacts for the mid- Mississippi Valley. First up, several GEFS, SREF, and ECMWF ensemble members are showing precip developing in the warm, moist flow ahead of the surface low early on Monday morning. At least a chance of precip will then persist until the front clears the area on Monday night, and temps may even be cool enough to generate some light snow before the precip ends. Secondly, a tight pressure gradient on the back side of the low will result in stiff northerly winds on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Finally, the most noticeable impact will be the much colder cold temps behind the front. Blended guidance is showing high temps on Tuesday near or just above freezing. GEFS guidance is even a tick colder, with the mean remaining below 30 through the day on Tuesday. Lows on Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the week, dropping into the teens across the region. High pressure will gradually slide to the east of the region on Wednesday, keeping things quiet and cool through midweek.

BSH

AVIATION. (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 441 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

A cold front was just southeast of STL early this morning, and will continue moving southeastward today. Post frontal MVFR cloudiness around 1500 feet in height has advected into UIN early this morning and should spread into COU and into the St Louis metro area later this morning. This shallow and thin low level cloudiness will gradually rise in height and scatter out late this morning and early this afternoon. The surface wind will become north- northwesterly as well as strengthen and become gusty in the St Louis metro area later this morning as it already has in UIN and COU. The surface wind will weaken by late afternoon as a surface ridge drops southeastward into MO from the northern Plains.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: A cold front was just southeast of STL early this morning, and will continue moving southeastward today. Post frontal MVFR cloudiness around 1500 feet in height has advected into UIN early this morning and should spread into STL later this morning. This shallow and thin low level cloudiness will gradually rise in height and scatter out early this afternoon. The surface wind will become north-northwesterly as well as strengthen and become gusty later this morning as it already has in UIN and COU. The surface wind will weaken by late afternoon as a surface ridge drops southeastward into MO from the northern Plains.

GKS

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Saint Louis 46 29 49 38 / 10 0 0 0 Quincy 40 24 46 36 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 43 26 49 38 / 5 0 0 0 Jefferson City 44 26 51 38 / 5 0 0 0 Salem 48 28 47 36 / 30 0 0 0 Farmington 49 27 50 35 / 30 0 0 0

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . None. IL . None.

WFO LSX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO8 mi59 minN 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast41°F34°F76%1023.6 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO15 mi62 minN 18 G 238.00 miOvercast and Breezy43°F34°F71%1023.5 hPa
St. Louis Downtown Airport, IL20 mi60 minN 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast42°F34°F73%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUS

Wind History from SUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS7SW8S3CalmS8S4S4SE3S4S5SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N7N15N14
G20
1 day agoW9W8W9W10W12W7W8CalmCalmCalmW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW10W10SW9W7W9W10W8W4W4W6W10W10W11W9W10W8W9W8W8W9W7W6W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.