Winchester, MO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winchester, MO

April 15, 2024 8:32 PM CDT (01:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM
Moonrise 10:45 AM   Moonset 1:33 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester, MO
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Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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FXUS63 KLSX 152315 AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms (up to a 40% chance) remain possible through this evening. One or two of these storms could become severe, with quarter size hail and gusty winds being the main threats.

- Severe thunderstorms look likely on Tuesday during the afternoon and early evening hours, particularly across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with the area mentioned above at risk for very large hail and a strong tornado.



SHORT TERM
(Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Latest surface analysis is showing a front extending from just north of Kansas City to near St. Louis to north Evansville. Latest satellite imagery is showing a cumulus field south of this front where the SPC mesoanalysis is showing MLCAPES of 1500-2000+ J/kg. The latest HRRR/RAP is showing the front remaining in the place this evening with a isolated-scattered thunderstorms developing along the front as the cap breaks between 23-02Z. One or two of these storms may become severe given the amount of instability and deep layer shear around 30 knots. Then the HRRR is showing any storms moving out of the area by late this evening with a chance of showers overnight.

More active weather will occur with two waves of severe weather likely on Tuesday. The aforementioned front will move north of the area early in the day in response to a deep surface low moving east across Nebraska. This will put us in the open warm sector with the first round forced by a combination of mid level lead shortwave paired with a band of low level moisture advection. The HRRR has been consistent in showing a north-south band of showers and thunderstorms across the CWA between 12-5 pm. MLCAPES will be around 1000 J/kg ahead of this band with deep layer shear of 50-60kts indicating that supercells and organized mutlicells will be possible within this band capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The second band will likely occur between 4-8 pm ahead of a weak vort lobe paired with a dry line. The HRRR have been showing discrete cells developing ahead of the dryline where there are forecast hodographs with large curvature in the 0-3km layer and 0-1km shear of 35 knots. While there are questions about whether there will be enough time to destabilize behind the first wave, the NAM/GFS is showing MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg in the area that these storm develop in which does support the SPC Enhanced risk and the potential for very large hail and a strong tornado with these storms. This line will likely move out of the CWA by mid-late evening leaving the overnight hours dry.

Britt

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mainly dry weather is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night before a northern stream system brings a cold front through the area. The LREF supports likely PoPs late Thursday into Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will linger over the area into Saturday before Sunday will be dry. Temperatures will remain above normal into Thursday before falling below normal behind the cold front on Thursday.

Britt

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

As the warm front slowly lifts north tonight, isolated showers and storms possible, especially over central Missouri through 02z-03z and over KUIN between 04z and 08z Tuesday, so have vicinity thunderstorms in the TAFs. Otherwise, better chances will be during the afternoon hours on Tuesday, after 15z-19z, for all TAF sites.

As for winds, they will remain east to southeast overnight, then veer to the south and pickup Tuesday morning with gusts up to 35kts at times.

Byrd

LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KSUS SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS,MO 8 sm38 minE 0710 smPartly Cloudy81°F63°F54%29.83
KSTL ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL,MO 14 sm41 minESE 0910 smOvercast81°F61°F51%29.86
KCPS ST LOUIS DOWNTOWN,IL 20 sm39 minSSE 0710 smMostly Cloudy81°F64°F58%29.86
KFYG WASHINGTON RGNL,MO 24 sm17 minSE 1510 smPartly Cloudy79°F64°F61%29.84
Link to 5 minute data for KSUS


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St. Louis, MO,



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