Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winchester, MO
July 3, 2024 12:26 AM CDT (05:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:11 AM Moonset 5:57 PM |
FXUS63 KLSX 022344 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected tonight through Thursday.
The first round is expected tonight with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across parts of northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Additionally, some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds and possibly large hail.
- Additional rounds of storms are expected Wednesday night and again Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Strong to severe storms are possible with each round.
- Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday with heat index values around 100 degrees, mainly across east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A short wave trough over the Great Plains is producing southerly flow across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This is pulling warm moist air back into the region ahead of the cold front associated with this trough. The trough will progress eastward tonight and will drag the cold front into Missouri and Illinois. GFS/RAP are showing some respectable instability at 3000+ J/Kg MLCAPE ahead of the front across northern Missouri and southern Iowa, and this is supported by the HRRR mean SBCAPE. Guidance is also showing 35-40kts of deep layer shear superimposed on that instability, so a round of severe thunderstorms looks likely. Damaging winds look like the most likely threat, though with 0-1km shear around 20kts and helicity between 100-200 m2/s2, there could be a few tornadoes as well. Hail seems to be the lowest threat since freezing levels are forecast to be between 12,000-13,000 feet. Instability falls off fairly quickly during the evening, however a 30-40kt low level jet will continue to funnel moisture into the boundary tonight, and the high warm cloud depth along with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches will produce conditions favorable for heavy rain. The HRRR LPMM is showing small patches of 3+ inches in northeast Missouri so 1-2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois looks likely tonight. A Flood Watch is therefore in effect in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois for tonight.
Tonight's convection drives the cold front southeast where it looks likely to stall across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Instability strengthens to 3000+ J/Kg in the vicinity of the boundary although the 0-6km shear isn't as strong at between 25- 30kts. Though the severe threat may not be as widespread, damaging winds will still be a possibility with Wednesday afternoon/evening's storms with that much instability. Several CAMs show more convection developing overnight over west central or southwest Missouri and congealing into a squall line which races east into east central and southeast Missouri by 10-12Z Thursday morning.
While storms do look likely overnight into Thursday morning as a 30+kt low level jet will be overrunning the low level boundary producing moderate to high moisture convergence, I'm not confident in the storm mode and severity as the deterministic models keep the instability farther south than where the CAMs show the strongest convection.
Regardless, the 4th of July will likely start out wet for the majority of the forecast area. Another short wave will move across the Plains which will turn the surface flow across the Mid- Mississippi Valley back to the south, pushing the front back to the north through the day. Instability jumps up again as the southerly flow brings more warm, moist air back into the area, and another round of severe storms with the potential for damaging winds will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The timing of the storms is uncertain, but 4th of July fireworks shows may be affected.
Carney
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The weather should be less active on Friday with the effective boundary well south of the forecast area in Arkansas. Models show the actual synoptic cold front moving through between 12-18Z Friday, and they do spit out some QPF Friday morning ahead of it. 2m dew point temperatures do not really drop until after FROPA, and it looks like there will be some low level convergence along the front, so a few lingering showers or storms aren't out of the question.
With that said, instability should be limited as the timing will be well before peak heating and the deep layer shear will also be limited to 15-25kts. High temperatures behind the front won't really be that much cooler on Friday and Saturday, but there should be a noticeable reduction in humidity as dew point temperatures fall from the low to mid 70s into the low and mid 60s. The drier air should allow overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 60s on Saturday and Sunday morning in most locations outside of St.
Louis. The next upstream short wave dips into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday night into Sunday. This will turn the low level flow back around to the south which will bring higher humidity back to our area, although current indications are it won't be quite as humid as this week ahead of the front. Along with the humidity the chance for scattered convection will also increase. Medium range guidance shows the synoptic cold front moving through the Plains Sunday and slowing/washing out over Missouri Monday. It's tough to pick out in the data after that, and triggering mechanisms for convection may be limited to outflow boundaries and MCVs from nocturnal storms. With the potential for scattered storms each afternoon, temperatures remain near or just below seasonal normals.
Carney
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms from IA to western MO is expected to progress east-southeastward into the region this evening, although weakening as it continues overnight. How quickly thunderstorms weaken is unclear, but KUIN has the greatest chance of seeing the strongest/most intense thunderstorms (relative to other terminals) with bouts of IFR flight conditions and strong wind gusts. Coverage and strength of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning is even more uncertain as they reach St. Louis metro terminals and potentially linger at KCOU and KJEF.
After a return to dry conditions late Wednesday morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop, with highest confidence in development in southeastern MO and southwestern IL, south of all terminals. Showers and thunderstorms will likely lift back northward Wednesday evening into overnight, but largely near and after the end of the current TAF period.
Pfahler
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Knox MO-Lewis MO- Marion MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Adams IL.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected tonight through Thursday.
The first round is expected tonight with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across parts of northeast Missouri as well as west central Illinois. Additionally, some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds and possibly large hail.
- Additional rounds of storms are expected Wednesday night and again Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Strong to severe storms are possible with each round.
- Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday with heat index values around 100 degrees, mainly across east central and southeast Missouri as well as southwest Illinois.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A short wave trough over the Great Plains is producing southerly flow across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This is pulling warm moist air back into the region ahead of the cold front associated with this trough. The trough will progress eastward tonight and will drag the cold front into Missouri and Illinois. GFS/RAP are showing some respectable instability at 3000+ J/Kg MLCAPE ahead of the front across northern Missouri and southern Iowa, and this is supported by the HRRR mean SBCAPE. Guidance is also showing 35-40kts of deep layer shear superimposed on that instability, so a round of severe thunderstorms looks likely. Damaging winds look like the most likely threat, though with 0-1km shear around 20kts and helicity between 100-200 m2/s2, there could be a few tornadoes as well. Hail seems to be the lowest threat since freezing levels are forecast to be between 12,000-13,000 feet. Instability falls off fairly quickly during the evening, however a 30-40kt low level jet will continue to funnel moisture into the boundary tonight, and the high warm cloud depth along with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches will produce conditions favorable for heavy rain. The HRRR LPMM is showing small patches of 3+ inches in northeast Missouri so 1-2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois looks likely tonight. A Flood Watch is therefore in effect in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois for tonight.
Tonight's convection drives the cold front southeast where it looks likely to stall across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Instability strengthens to 3000+ J/Kg in the vicinity of the boundary although the 0-6km shear isn't as strong at between 25- 30kts. Though the severe threat may not be as widespread, damaging winds will still be a possibility with Wednesday afternoon/evening's storms with that much instability. Several CAMs show more convection developing overnight over west central or southwest Missouri and congealing into a squall line which races east into east central and southeast Missouri by 10-12Z Thursday morning.
While storms do look likely overnight into Thursday morning as a 30+kt low level jet will be overrunning the low level boundary producing moderate to high moisture convergence, I'm not confident in the storm mode and severity as the deterministic models keep the instability farther south than where the CAMs show the strongest convection.
Regardless, the 4th of July will likely start out wet for the majority of the forecast area. Another short wave will move across the Plains which will turn the surface flow across the Mid- Mississippi Valley back to the south, pushing the front back to the north through the day. Instability jumps up again as the southerly flow brings more warm, moist air back into the area, and another round of severe storms with the potential for damaging winds will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The timing of the storms is uncertain, but 4th of July fireworks shows may be affected.
Carney
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The weather should be less active on Friday with the effective boundary well south of the forecast area in Arkansas. Models show the actual synoptic cold front moving through between 12-18Z Friday, and they do spit out some QPF Friday morning ahead of it. 2m dew point temperatures do not really drop until after FROPA, and it looks like there will be some low level convergence along the front, so a few lingering showers or storms aren't out of the question.
With that said, instability should be limited as the timing will be well before peak heating and the deep layer shear will also be limited to 15-25kts. High temperatures behind the front won't really be that much cooler on Friday and Saturday, but there should be a noticeable reduction in humidity as dew point temperatures fall from the low to mid 70s into the low and mid 60s. The drier air should allow overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 60s on Saturday and Sunday morning in most locations outside of St.
Louis. The next upstream short wave dips into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday night into Sunday. This will turn the low level flow back around to the south which will bring higher humidity back to our area, although current indications are it won't be quite as humid as this week ahead of the front. Along with the humidity the chance for scattered convection will also increase. Medium range guidance shows the synoptic cold front moving through the Plains Sunday and slowing/washing out over Missouri Monday. It's tough to pick out in the data after that, and triggering mechanisms for convection may be limited to outflow boundaries and MCVs from nocturnal storms. With the potential for scattered storms each afternoon, temperatures remain near or just below seasonal normals.
Carney
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms from IA to western MO is expected to progress east-southeastward into the region this evening, although weakening as it continues overnight. How quickly thunderstorms weaken is unclear, but KUIN has the greatest chance of seeing the strongest/most intense thunderstorms (relative to other terminals) with bouts of IFR flight conditions and strong wind gusts. Coverage and strength of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning is even more uncertain as they reach St. Louis metro terminals and potentially linger at KCOU and KJEF.
After a return to dry conditions late Wednesday morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop, with highest confidence in development in southeastern MO and southwestern IL, south of all terminals. Showers and thunderstorms will likely lift back northward Wednesday evening into overnight, but largely near and after the end of the current TAF period.
Pfahler
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Knox MO-Lewis MO- Marion MO-Shelby MO.
IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Adams IL.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSUS SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS,MO | 8 sm | 32 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 79°F | 70°F | 74% | 29.89 | |
| KSTL ST LOUIS LAMBERT INTL,MO | 14 sm | 35 min | SSW 07G17 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 82°F | 68°F | 62% | 29.92 | |
| KCPS ST LOUIS DOWNTOWN,IL | 20 sm | 33 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 64°F | 58% | 29.90 | |
| KFYG WASHINGTON RGNL,MO | 24 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | -- | 79°F | 77°F | 94% | 29.91 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUS
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUS
Wind History graph: SUS
(wind in knots)
St. Louis, MO,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE