Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonquin, MD

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Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:46 AM EDT (09:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:51PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 436 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of the overnight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Today..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms
ANZ500 436 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of barry will move into the western atlantic through tonight. High pressure will build over the southeastern states for Friday into the weekend. A cold front will approach the waters from the great lakes and pennsylvania Sunday night, and cross the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonquin, MD
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location: 38.59, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180748
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
348 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will remain in our region today before
drifting out over the ocean tonight. Hot humid high pressure is
forecast to build up from the southwest for Friday and the
weekend. A slow moving cold front approaching from the northwest
is expected to arrive on Monday, followed by an area of high
pressure from the west for the middle of the new week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
This morning:
will continue to see isolated to scattered showers this
morning, due to a combination of the very moist airmass (as
evident by satellite model analysis pwats in the 2.3-2.4 inch
range) and lift ahead of the shortwave trough associated with
barry's remnant mid-lvl circulation. Don't expect these to be
intense due to lack of instability, however can't rule out some
brief locally heavy downpours given the moist airmass. Also will
have to watch out for patchy fog due to the low t TD spreads
but mid- lvl cloud cover may be an inhibiting factor.

This afternoon:
the mid-lvl shortwave will be somewhat slow to clear the area
today with perhaps some weak backside energy behind it. This
feature has helped spawn a weak low-lvl circulation to our nw,
which will drift SE over the area today. This low trough will
both help keep moisture in the area and also potentially act as
a focus for storms (via confluence). Consequently expect fairly
widespread convection to develop this afternoon with the
positioning of the low and moisture gradient perhaps favoring
the central half of our area (although really anywhere could see
storms). The main threat with these storms will be heavy rain
as pwats will remain over 2 inches, and will be combined with
cape values around 1500-2000 j kg, and deep (13-14k ft) warm
cloud layers. Did consider issuing a flash flood watch this
package, particularly over eastern pa where FFG was low, but
lacked sufficient confidence due to both instability concerns
(potential low-lvl cloud cover) and precipitation placement
concerns.

Although the hydro threat remains, feel the organized severe
threat will be lower today due to both lower instability and
fairly weak dynamics and shear (bulk shear generally 20 kts or
less). Obviously can never rule out some isolated strong
microburst storms in these kind of environments but anything
organized looks unlikely.

Due to the aforementioned cloud cover and precipitation,
temperatures will be a bit cooler today than any of the days
surrounding it, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower
90s. However, still could get heat indices creeping towards 100+
in DELMARVA and the southern urban corridor due to the high
dewpoints.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Friday
The low-lvl circulation clears the area this evening, with
westerly flow behind it helping to filter in somewhat drier air
over the area. This eventually will result in diminishing
convective coverage, with most activity squashed by 04-06z. The
low-lvls remain relatively moist so patchy fog low stratus will
again be a possibility (particularly in areas that receive
precipitation during the day), and may be more widespread than
this morning due to faster clearing of mid-lvl clouds.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
On Friday, a mid level ridge is forecast to extend from the
south central states all the way out to the western atlantic.

The ridge is expected to remain in place into Saturday. A trough
is anticipated to begin digging over the great lakes and the
northeastern states on Sunday and the ridge should begin to
divide. Part of the ridge is forecast to push farther our over
the atlantic for the new week while part of it retrogrades back
over the western states. The pattern will keep our region in the
oppressive heat and humidity into the weekend with a noticeable
change in conditions by Tuesday and Wednesday.

We will continue the excessive heat warning for the urban
corridor through Sunday evening. Heat index values will likely
approach 100 today and they should get above 105 on Friday,
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday afternoon should be the most
oppressive with heat index values exceeding 110 in many
locations.

The excessive heat watch will remain in effect from noon on
Friday into Sunday evening for the remainder of our region.

Those areas should experience a slight reprieve from the
excessive heat and humidity today before both return for Friday
and the weekend.

We are expecting only a slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm from the poconos and the lehigh valley into
northern and central new jersey late on Friday. There is little
chance for any precipitation on Saturday.

A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest. A pre-
frontal trough is anticipated to arrive on Sunday and it may
trigger the development of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms will be the first step
in breaking the excessive heat and humidity.

The slow moving cold front is forecast to arrive in our region
on Monday before it slips to our south on Tuesday. We will
continue to mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms
throughout our region for Monday, confining the chance to
northeastern maryland, delaware and southern new jersey on
Tuesday.

High pressure and dry weather are expected for Wednesday.

High temperatures should settle mainly into the 80s for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... A mixture of MVFRVFR conditions this morning will
transition to mostlyVFR after 12-13z. There will also be a
chance for lower flight categories this afternoon due to showers
and thunderstorms. Wind direction will be somewhat erratic
although speeds will generally be 5 kts or less outside of
thunderstorm outflows.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms should clear terminals by
about 03z and then a period of MVFR or even ifr conditions will
be possible overnight in fog stratus. Winds remain light and
variable.

Outlook...

Friday... Early morning visibility restrictions, otherwiseVFR.

Variable wind 5 knots or less, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night... MainlyVFR with late night visibility
restrictions. Variable wind 5 knots or less.

Saturday... Early morning visibility restrictions, otherwise
vfr. Southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night... MainlyVFR with late night visibility
restrictions. Variable wind 5 knots or less.

Sunday... Early morning visibility restrictions, otherwiseVFR.

A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Southwest to
west wind 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night... A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
or ifr conditions at times. Variable wind 5 knots or less.

Monday... A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or ifr
conditions at times. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions are expected today and tonight although seas
may build to around 4 ft. Generally expect southerly winds
10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts or so. This afternoon into this
evening showers and thunderstorms will move into the waters and
potentially produce locally strong winds and higher seas.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday... No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents...

with a decreasing period, expect that the risk for the
formation of dangerous rip currents will be low today.

A variable wind on Friday morning should become southerly
around 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 2
feet are expected along with a medium period south to southeast
swell. There should be a low risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents on Friday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
evening for paz054-055-060>062-101-103-105.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for paz070-071-
102-104-106.

Nj... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
evening for njz001-007>010-012>014-016-020>027.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for njz015-
017>019.

De... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
evening for dez002>004.

Excessive heat warning until 10 pm edt Sunday for dez001.

Md... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
evening for mdz008-012-015-019-020.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Carr
short term... Carr
long term... Iovino
aviation... Carr iovino
marine... Carr iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 1 mi52 min 82°F 85°F1011.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 18 mi46 min SW 16 G 18 81°F 1 ft1011.6 hPa (-1.5)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 21 mi46 min SW 14 G 16 80°F 1011.7 hPa (-1.3)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 26 mi52 min SW 15 G 19 83°F 85°F1011.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 27 mi46 min SW 11 G 13 81°F 83°F1010.8 hPa (-1.2)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 29 mi46 min SSW 8.9 G 11 80°F 82°F1011.8 hPa (-1.4)75°F
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi22 min W 5.8 G 7.8 80°F 83°F1011.5 hPa
CPVM2 33 mi46 min 82°F 80°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi46 min 79°F 1010.4 hPa (-1.4)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 40 mi46 min SW 12 G 16
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 44 mi52 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 77°F 84°F1011.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi52 min SW 9.9 G 13 80°F 84°F1011.4 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD4 mi61 minS 310.00 miFair81°F75°F84%1011.5 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD15 mi47 minS 310.00 miFair81°F75°F85%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmSE4SW56CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW54S76
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2 days agoN5N5NE6E7NE8CalmCalmW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Cambridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Cambridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:46 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.91.41.82.22.32.11.81.51.10.80.60.50.611.31.71.81.71.51.10.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:16 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:08 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.10.40.60.70.70.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.40.40.20-0.1-0.3-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (5,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.