Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Algonquin, MD

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A stalled warm front currently lies across northeast PA and northern NJ. Low pressure currently centered over central PA will continue to progress east-northeastward towards New England tonight as a trailing cold front passes through early Monday.
With the surface low and cold front approaching from the west, we have seen the formation of a broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms develop over central PA. These storms will track east toward northeast PA and northern NJ late this evening. But as we are past sunset and low-level lapse rates are decreasing, not expecting anything more than a brief heavy downpour. However, a 35-40 kt LLJ will be overhead, so there may be a few gusts to 30 to 40 mph in any stronger cell. There also may be a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm near the NJ coast overnight as some of the hi-res guidance is keen on sparking a few showers as the front passes. Otherwise, the rest of the area in and around the Philly metro and Delmarva will likely remain dry. Lows tonight will mostly be in the 50s/60s.

Once the low exits into New England, a strong cold front will cross through the region early on Monday welcoming in a much cooler and drier airmass to the region. While some sun is possible in the morning, expecting more clouds than sun in the afternoon as a strong push of cold air advection should lead to development of strato-cu.
Afternoon highs will only be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Also, the pressure gradient will be tight in wake of the front, which will lead to gusty winds up to 30-35 mph for Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The area will remain in a cold advection pattern through the short term as low pressure continues to slowly drift north and east through Atlantic Canada while high pressure builds south and eastward towards the Midwest. This will keep W/NW winds in place with below average temperatures and dry weather. Expect most areas to get down into the upper 30s to low 40s for lows Monday night with low/mid 30s in the southern Poconos and NW NJ where areas of frost are likely. This will be followed by a breezy and cool day Tuesday under a mix of sun and clouds with highs generally in the 50s.

Tuesday night looks to be at least as cold as Monday night with many areas seeing lows get down into the 30s and areas of frost possible as far south as the NW Philly suburbs and interior southern NJ.
Tricky forecast on this detail though as one limiting factor could be winds. Another chilly day under a mix of sun and clouds will follow for Wednesday with temperatures similar to, if not slightly colder than, Tuesday. Generally expect highs in the 50s except the Pocono Plateau may not get out of the 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Expansive high pressure initially centered to our west late Wednesday will gradually build eastward towards the east coast through the course of Thursday and Friday. This will occur as upper level ridging builds over the eastern U.S. The high looks to then remain dominant over the area through next weekend. The upshot of this is that dry weather will persist with no precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through Thursday (temperatures around 10 degrees below average) before the airmass moderates Friday through Sunday. This will bring temperatures up to more seasonable levels for Friday and Saturday and then potentially even warmer than this by next Sunday as highs could get back into the low/mid 70s for many areas.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Generally VFR. Slight chance of MVFR conditions at KRDG/KABE with showers and possibly a thunderstorm, but confidence in this is very low. Otherwise, west-southwest winds around 10 kt. Kept LLWS in the TAF for all terminals through 06Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Monday...VFR with a scattered afternoon clouds. West-northwest winds around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25-30 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts to 20 knots during the day Tuesday and Wednesday with lighter winds for Thursday and Friday.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters including the Delaware Bay through Monday.

South-southwest winds around 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt will continue through tonight. For Monday, winds will become west-northwest following the passage of a cold front where winds will continue to gust up to 30 kt. Seas of 5-7 feet. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm is possible.

Outlook...

Small Craft Advisory continues through Monday evening but the general trend will be down for both winds and seas with the SCA set to end at midnight. It will still remain on the breezy side though through Tuesday and Wednesday with west/northwest winds potentially still gusting 20 to 25 knots at times. Winds will then be lighter for Thursday and Friday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.