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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 411 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am est Tuesday...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 411 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will build in through Tuesday. A weak cold front will track through Wednesday morning. High pressure will return for Thursday into Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed over the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

FXUS61 KLWX 111939 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 239 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain in control across the area through much of the week. An area of low pressure may approach from the south during the second half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure has tracked northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon, while high pressure is building to our south and east across the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys.
The pressure gradient between these two features is maintaining gusty northwesterly winds over the area this afternoon. At upper levels, the primary upper trough axis is progressing through this afternoon. Some clouds remain within post-frontal northwesterly flow beneath the upper trough, especially to the west of the Blue Ridge. A few upslope snow showers can't be ruled out through the remainder of the afternoon to the west of the Allegheny Front, but chances for those snow showers are gradually decreasing as the subsidence inversion starts to lower. Temperatures are near their highs for the day, with 40s to the east of the mountains, and 20s and 30s in the mountains.

High pressure will continue to build toward the area from the southwest tonight. As the pressure gradient weakens, winds will start to subside, and some locations may even decouple later tonight. Most cloud cover will be lost after daytime heating and resultant mixing ends, leading to mostly clear skies overnight.
Temperatures will drop back into the 20s for most, with teens in some of the more favored locations for radiational cooling.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will build just to our south and east tomorrow, allowing light southerly flow to develop at the surface. Flow aloft will be zonal, and the boundary layer will be rather moisture starved. As a result, sunny skies are expected.
Temperatures are forecast to top out in the mid-upper 40s for most, with 30s in the mountains. High pressure will strengthen off to our northwest tomorrow night, resulting in another night with clear skies and light winds. Lows will be in the 20s for most.

Upper troughing will pass to our northeast across New England on Wednesday. This system won't have much moisture to work with, so just a few passing high clouds are expected. In response to the system passing to our northeast and high pressure continuing to strengthen over the Ohio Valley, winds will turn northwesterly behind a weak reinforcing cold front. Temperatures are expected to top out in the 40s for most (30s in the mountains) beneath mostly sunny skies. High pressure will continue to build toward the area Wednesday night, potentially becoming centered over the Appalachians by the second half of the night. It will be another chilly night, with most locations dropping back into the 20s, with teens in the cooler spots that radiate more efficiently.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Large scale ridging and high pressure look to dominate the weather pattern late this week and into the upcoming weekend. This will lead to moderating temperatures and dry weather. After what will likely be a very cold start under strong high pressure (1040+ mb) early Thursday morning, high temperatures should climb into the 40s.
Friday looks to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than Thursday, with Saturday a few degrees warmer than that.

By the end of the weekend into early next week, models diverge on whether or not low pressure developing near the Gulf of Mexico remains cutoff and meanders to our south, or gets caught in the jet stream and comes up the East Coast. This appears to be a southern stream dominant system with not much cold air to work with, though some residual low-level cold in the typically trapped valleys could result in a little wintry precipitation in theory. Mountain snow showers would also be possible on the backside of any such system.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The only potentially small chance for sub-VFR conditions would be tonight, if some fog or freezing fog were to form. Currently the NAM is the only model that shows this occurring, so it appears to be a bit of an outlier at the moment. Have kept the TAFs all VFR for now. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest this afternoon, with gusts to around 25-30 knots common. Winds will decrease, but remain out of the northwest through the first half of the night. Many locations may decouple and go calm, or become light and variable during the second half of the night.

Light southerly winds and VFR conditions are expected tomorrow.
VFR conditions and northwesterly winds are expected on Wednesday.

VFR conditions are expected Thursday into Friday amid W flow.

MARINE
Winds remain gusty out of the northwest over the waters this afternoon. SCAs are in effect for all waters through the first half of the night. Wind will decrease tonight, before turning light out of the south tomorrow. Winds will turn back out of the northwest on Wednesday, and could approach SCA levels, especially Wednesday night.

Generally westerly flow is expected Thursday into Friday. Some gustiness to SCA levels could linger into Thursday morning in the wake of a dry cold front.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543.

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Plum Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:01 AM EST     0.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:03 PM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Plum Point, Maryland, Tide feet

Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true

Mon -- 01:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:17 AM EST     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:29 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:49 PM EST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:51 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:37 PM EST     0.16 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current, knots

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