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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 934 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.

ANZ500 934 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
an area of low pressure will pass north and west of the area tonight into Saturday. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.

FXUS61 KLWX 020245 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 945 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Precipitation will gradually dissipate over the area tonight.
Abundant cloud cover, above normal temperatures, and additional rain chances are expected this weekend as weak waves of low pressure push through. A strong cold front and area of low pressure look to pass through the region Monday and Tuesday before high pressure returns by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Precipitation has begun to dissipate west to east this evening, with some light rain still lingering over southern and eastern Maryland. This trend is expected to continue through the night, except for continuing rain chances for portions of the Allegheny Front. Overcast skies remain through the night and confidence has increased for the development patchy fog east of the Blue Ridge tonight.

Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s for most areas, with upper 40s to low 50s expected for areas along the shorelines.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A break in the majority of the precipitation is expected during portions of the day on Saturday, with southerly advection building in. Highs for the day will likely be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, with most areas in the low 60s with 50s across the higher terrain. Precipitation likely starts to build back in by the mid to late afternoon hours from the SW to NE as a low pressure system further south continues to move eastward.
Locally heavier instances of rain will be possible with this system overnight, with QPF totals of a quarter of an inch to half an inch in localized areas. Overnight lows on Saturday will drop down into the upper 40s to low 50s for most areas with light winds out of the east. Some guidance is hinting at the potential for dense fog in localized areas Saturday night as the bulk of the precipitation exits the area.

Sunday looks to be an overcast day with a lot of lingering moisture and drizzle around as the low pressure continues to move nearby.
Highs will be similar to Saturday, with upper 50s to low 60s being most common across the region aside from the higher elevations where the upper 40s to low 50s are expected. The low pressure system will eventually exit the area late Sunday and into early Monday morning, leading to clearing skies for most areas. The exception will be across the Alleghenies where a light rain/snow mix will be possible overnight. Overnight lows Sunday night will drop down into the low to mid 30s for the Allegheny Front, with slightly warmer temperatures further east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ridging will be pivoting eastward across the Rockies while a trailing shortwave trough digs across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys during the first half of next week. Although the ridge- trough pattern is briefly favorable for unsettled weather in the Mid- Atlantic, the pattern itself is transient. Therefore, the potential for impactful wintry weather remains high uncertain and generally low probability east of the Appalachians at the moment, but still bears monitoring.

Behind this trough, a brief reinforcing shot of cooler than normal temperatures looks to traverse the region through about Thursday, before temperatures begin to rebound toward the end of next week as the aforementioned ridge from the Rockies approaches the East Coast.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Cigs and vsbys this evening have been up and down between MVFR and IFR with the exiting light precip. Guidance has been slow to get a handle on it, but seems to have a better grasp on it now. Confidence for low cigs/patchy fog developing across the area has increased as well, primarily impacting the terminals IAD and east with BWI and MTN having the highest confidence for the most pessimistic restrictions. Also carried LLWS a few hours longer for some terminals based on guidance.

Previous discussion follows...
LLWS will be possible for most terminals east of KMRB this afternoon and through parts of the evening hours at around 2k feet with winds 35 to 40 kts out of the SW. These should taper off before midnight. There may be drops in visibilities overnight, especially across KMTN and KBWI where guidance is most favorable for patchy to isolated areas of dense fog.
Confidence is fairly low at this point as to whether the winds diminish enough for the low stratus deck to make it further to the ground but we will continue to monitor this chance through the afternoon and evening hours.

Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible later in the day on Saturday as a low pressure system to the south will continue to move eastward, bringing increase chances for precipitation for the terminals. Sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected Sunday with drizzle expected throughout much of the day. These conditions will begin to improve by late Sunday and into early Monday morning.

Mainly VFR conditions are most likely during the first half of next week, though a few disturbances/waves of low pressure may pass near the area. Breezy W/NW flow with gusts of 15-20 kts is expected Monday into Tuesday.

MARINE
Sporadic gusts up to around 18 knots this afternoon have diminished this evening. Sub- SCA winds are expected through the weekend, with directions shifting from the southwest to more easterly by Sunday afternoon. Gusty W/NW winds may breach SCA criteria Monday into Tuesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

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Lower Marlboro
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:31 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:56 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:44 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:48 PM EST     2.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Marlboro, Maryland, Tide feet

Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true

Fri -- 12:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:02 AM EST     0.25 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:39 AM EST     -0.26 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:35 PM EST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:41 PM EST     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current, knots

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